AI Model:

Aaron Gordon▼

DEN · PF

PPG

16.6

RPG

5.9

APG

2.5

L5 PPG

16.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG0.0

16.6

RPG-1.1

5.9

4.8

APG+0.3

2.5

2.8

SPG-0.4

0.6

0.2

BPG+0.3

0.3

0.6

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

16.5

LAL

2026-01-20

2026-01-20 vs LAL: 18 pts

MIL

2026-01-23

2026-01-23 vs MIL: 13 pts

NYK

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NYK: 3 pts

OKC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs OKC: 23 pts

HOU

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs HOU: 0 pts

LAL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAL: 27 pts

PHI

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHI: 12 pts

TOR

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs TOR: 16 pts

POR

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs POR: 12 pts

PHX

2026-03-24

2026-03-24 vs PHX: 16 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

REB

OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

52%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

51%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.0

17.3

RPG

5.9

6.4

APG

3.8

2.0

vs DAL (H2H)11 games

PPG

16.2

RPG

6.0

APG

2.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Giannis Antetokounmpo	2	12	53%	-0.3%	low
Alex Sarr	2	11	42%	-8.6%	low
Zion Williamson	2	11	33%	-17.0%	low
Julius Randle	2	10	43%

Aaron Gordon’s scoring leans under, while threes remain his clearest path

Aaron Gordon is in a downtrend, with his last 10 scoring at 14.0 PPG versus a season mark of 16.6, and his recent minutes have also dipped to 25.6 from 27.2. The value data is strongest on points under 16.5, where the market is pricing a number above his recent production and the model shows a clear lean to the under. His three-point volume and accuracy still give him upside from deep, but rebounds and assists are much closer to his season averages with limited edge. With no blowout or matchup-specific defender angle beyond the listed key defenders, the safest profile is a modest scoring night with threes as the better aggressive look.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.6(→ from 16.6)

RPG

4.8(↓ from 5.9)

APG

2.8(↑ from 2.5)

3PM

1.6(↓ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

The key defender data lists P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford, and Naji Marshall, but there is no specific defender matchup data to isolate a single on-ball matchup. The opponent defense context shows a 119.04 defensive rating and 100 pace, which is not a strong suppression setup for Gordon’s role-based scoring.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Aaron Gordon▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	2/2	70%
Aaron Gordon▼	Rebounds	5.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	30%
Aaron Gordon▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	51%MEDIUM	2/2	70%
Aaron Gordon▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Aaron Gordon▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	80%

ML Scout Analysis

PTS15.5UNDER6%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

PRA24.5UNDER16%gbt_praDecent Leg (14/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

FTA4.5UNDER7%gbtDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

REB6UNDER7%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)6/2030%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

3PA4UNDER29%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)6/2030%▼

FTM3UNDER31%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)5/2025%▼

P+R21OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

P+A18OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

AST3OVER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)6/2030%▼

3PM1OVER0%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

Featured Pick

Aaron Gordon

Points UNDER 16.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because the market line sits above his last 10 average of 14.0 and his home scoring average of 13.0. The value data also supports the under with a 6.8% edge and 12.69 EV per 100 at FanDuel, making it the strongest play in his profile.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Daniel Gafford	1	2	0	0%	0%
P.J. Washington	1	2	1	0%	0%
Naji Marshall	1	2	2	50%	50%
Dwight Powell	1	2	0	0%	0%
Cooper Flagg	1	1	2	33%	33%

pointsUNDER 16.578%HIGH

His season mean is 16.6, but the last 10 are only 14.0 and the value data gives the under a 6.8% edge at this line. The recent trend is down, and his home scoring average of 13.0 is well below the market number.

reboundsOVER 5.552%MEDIUM

His season rebound mean is 5.9, slightly above the line, but the edge is minimal and recent form is only 5.1 over the last 10. This is a thin play and fits better as a lean than a strong bet.

assistsOVER 2.551%MEDIUM

He averages 2.5 assists for the season and 2.9 over the last 10, so the number is right on his profile. Variance is still high, but the recent trend supports a slight over lean.

threesOVER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.8 threes per game for the season, 1.6 over the last 10, and 1.9 on the road. The market line of 1.5 is below his typical volume, giving the over the clearest positive projection among his secondary props.

stocksUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is only 0.83 and his last 10 are 0.8, well below a 1.5 threshold. Even with some away-game upside, this remains a volatile but statistically low-output category.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Aaron Gordon’s scoring leans under, while threes remain his clearest path

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 16.5 PTS