AI Model:

VJ Edgecombe▲

PHI · PG

PPG

16.1

RPG

5.7

APG

4.0

L5 PPG

24.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+8.3

16.1

24.4

RPG+2.5

5.7

8.2

APG+1.2

4.0

5.2

SPG-0.6

1.4

0.8

BPG0.0

0.6

UNDER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

19.5

BOS

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs BOS: 23 pts

SAS

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAS: 6 pts

MEM

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MEM: 21 pts

DET

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DET: 10 pts

BKN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BKN: 16 pts

POR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs POR: 18 pts

DEN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DEN: 9 pts

SAC

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs SAC: 38 pts

UTA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs UTA: 22 pts

OKC

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs OKC: 35 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 19.5BETMGM

60%

REB

OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

AST

UNDER 4.5BETMGM

58%

3PM

UNDER 2.5BETMGM

69%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

62%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

57%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

60%

P+R

OVER 17.5STAKE

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.6

RPG

6.5

6.8

APG

3.2

3.7

vs CHI (H2H)2 games

PPG

11.0

RPG

9.0

APG

3.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Brunson	4	23	38%	-10.5%	medium
Derrick White	4	21	27%	-23.8%	medium
Immanuel Quickley	4	16	52%	-2.9%	medium
Andrew Nembhard	3	16	53%

Edgecombe’s all-around form points to a balanced night, but the board leans slightly to the under on scoring

VJ Edgecombe is in strong current form, averaging 24.4 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 5.2 APG over his last 5 while playing 35.0 MPG, but that is well above his season baseline of 16.1/5.7/4.0. His last 10 and last 20 averages also sit above season marks, which suggests real momentum, though the scoring surge is likely to regress closer to the 16-19 point range than the recent 20+ burst. The matchup environment is neutral to favorable for volume with Chicago carrying a 120.34 defensive rating and 100 pace, but his head-to-head sample vs this opponent is only 11 PPG and 9 RPG in 2 games, which tempers the ceiling. With no notable rest disadvantage and a stable 35-minute role, rebounds look the cleanest path, while points and assists price in more than the season mean.

Stat Trends

PPG

24.4(↑ from 16.1)

RPG

8.2(↑ from 5.7)

APG

5.2(↑ from 4.0)

Key Matchup

Chicago’s team defense data shows a 120.34 defensive rating and 100 pace, which supports usable possession volume. The provided defender list does not give any specific defender matchup data that clearly changes the projection.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
VJ Edgecombe▼	Points	19.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	FLIP	22	✗
VJ Edgecombe▼	Rebounds	5.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	40%		6	✓
VJ Edgecombe▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	70%		6	✗
VJ Edgecombe▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	FLIP	4	✗
VJ Edgecombe▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		1	✓
VJ Edgecombe▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%		0	✗
VJ Edgecombe▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%	FLIP	1	✗
VJ Edgecombe▼	P+R	17.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	17.5→18.5	28	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R24.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)12/2060%▼

PTS12.5UNDER0%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)16/2080%▼

PRA21.5UNDER28%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)14/2070%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A23UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

AST3.5UNDER25%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

STL1.5UNDER51%gbt_stealsAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

3PM1.5UNDER2%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)9/2045%+9.1% edge▼

FTM2.5UNDER34%gbtAvoid (7/20)10/2050%▼

FTA3UNDER41%gbtAvoid (7/20)6/2030%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

R+A10UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

3PA5UNDER41%gbtAvoid (6/20)6/2030%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

REB5.5UNDER29%gbt_reboundsAvoid (5/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

VJ Edgecombe

Rebounds OVER 5.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his season mean is 5.7 RPG, his last 10 is 6.4, and his last 5 jumps to 8.2. The draftkings value data also shows a 10.2% edge, making it the strongest +EV play in the set.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Josh Giddey	3	11	12	71%	79%
Tre Jones	3	6	6	50%	50%
Isaac Okoro	3	4	4	33%	33%
Matas Buzelis	3	3	2	25%	25%
Coby White	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 19.560%MEDIUM

His season mean is 16.1 PPG and the best available book line is 19.5, which sits above that baseline. The last 5 at 24.4 is hot, but it is a large jump over season production, so regression risk is real.

reboundsOVER 5.566%MEDIUM

He averages 5.7 RPG on the season, 6.4 over the last 10, and 8.2 over the last 5, so 5.5 is below both season and recent form. This is also the strongest value prop provided, with a 10.2% edge and positive EV.

assistsUNDER 4.558%MEDIUM

His season average is 4.0 APG and the recent 4.2 APG is only slightly higher, while the line is 4.5. The recent mean is not far enough above season production to justify an over with high confidence.

threesUNDER 2.569%MEDIUM

He averages 2.03 made threes on the season and the value data shows the under at 2.5 has a 9.8% edge. Recent made threes have been volatile, with 1.8 over the last 10 and 2.4 over the last 5, but the season baseline still supports the under.

stealsUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 1.4 and recent is 1.2 over the last 10, so 1.5 is slightly above his normal output. The volatility is moderate, but the line is still a touch aggressive.

blocksOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 blocks on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, so 0.5 is a low bar. The sample is small for blocks, but the season profile supports at least one rejection more often than not.

stocksOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.97 and recent is 2.1, both above 1.5. That makes this a reasonable combined defensive-play line, though combo props carry more variance.

prOVER 17.556%MEDIUM

He averages 16.1 points and 5.7 rebounds for 21.8 PR on the season, and even the last 10 combination remains above this line. The recent scoring surge helps, but combo volatility keeps confidence modest.

timelineUNDER 19.5 PTS