AI Model:

Patrick Williams▼

CHI · PF

PPG

6.9

RPG

2.8

APG

1.4

L5 PPG

5.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.7

6.9

5.2

RPG-0.8

2.8

2.0

APG-0.6

1.4

0.8

SPG0.0

0.6

BPG+0.3

0.3

0.6

UNDER 6.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

6.5

TOR

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs TOR: 6 pts

DET

2026-02-21

2026-02-21 vs DET: 6 pts

NYK

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs NYK: 10 pts

CHA

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs CHA: 11 pts

SAC

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAC: 5 pts

LAC

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs LAC: 2 pts

MEM

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs MEM: 9 pts

TOR

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs TOR: 7 pts

CLE

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CLE: 6 pts

HOU

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs HOU: 2 pts

Over 6.5

Under 6.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 6.5STAKE

70%

REB

UNDER 2.5STAKE

67%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

72%

3PM

UNDER 1.5

61%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

OVER 1.5

58%

P+R

UNDER 9.5STAKE

66%

P+A

UNDER 7.5STAKE

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

6.5

8.4

RPG

1.9

3.6

APG

1.5

1.9

vs PHI (H2H)13 games

PPG

8.0

RPG

3.9

APG

2.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Bam Adebayo	4	13	34%	-5.1%	medium
OG Anunoby	4	13	85%	+23.3%	medium
Miles Bridges	4	13	78%	+25.8%	medium
Zion Williamson	3	12	63%

Patrick Williams projects as a low-ceiling, under-leaning role player tonight

Patrick Williams is trending down, with 5.2 PPG over his last 5 compared to 6.9 PPG for the season and only 19.8 MPG overall. His recent production is modest across the board, and his last 10/20 game logs show only small assist and rebound contributions with limited scoring upside. The matchup context is not especially supportive for a breakout, and his season-long role suggests a narrow stat path rather than a volume-driven spike. With the market set around his season averages, the safer lean is to the under on the main counting props.

Stat Trends

PPG

5.2(↓ from 6.9)

RPG

2.0(↓ from 2.8)

APG

0.8(↓ from 1.4)

Key Matchup

The opponent defense data shows a 116.15 defensive rating, 100 pace, and 0.164 scoring suppression, with no specific defender matchup data. His head-to-head history vs this opponent is 8.0 PPG, 3.923 RPG, and 2.076 APG in 13 games, which is useful but not enough to override the weaker recent form.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Patrick Williams▼	Points	6.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	60%	10	✗
Patrick Williams▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	3	✗
Patrick Williams▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	80%	1	✓
Patrick Williams▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	1	✓
Patrick Williams▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✓
Patrick Williams▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Patrick Williams▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Patrick Williams▼	P+R	9.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	13	✗
Patrick Williams▼	P+A	7.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	11	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS6UNDER7%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%▼

3PA4UNDER57%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)6/2030%▼

PRA10UNDER24%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A8UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)7/2035%▼

R+A4UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)7/2035%▼

P+R8.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

REB2OVER7%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

AST1OVER16%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x6/2030%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

3PM1UNDER59%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 8x7/2035%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

Featured Pick

Patrick Williams

Assists UNDER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest under on the board because his season assist mean is only 1.35 and his last 5 has fallen to 0.8. The line is above both his season and recent production, and his role does not suggest a sudden playmaking jump.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Trendon Watford	2	3	0	0%	0%
Jabari Walker	2	2	2	50%	50%
Joel Embiid	2	2	6	100%	100%
VJ Edgecombe	2	2	2	50%	50%
Kelly Oubre Jr.	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 6.570%HIGH

He averages 6.9 PPG on the season and just 5.2 PPG over the last 5, so the under is supported by both season form and recent dip. His scoring volume is modest at 19.8 MPG, which limits upside against a market line already near his average.

reboundsUNDER 2.567%MEDIUM

Patrick Williams is at 2.8 RPG for the season but only 2.0 RPG in his last 5 and 2.2 RPG over his last 10. With recent minutes only at 22.2 and limited rebound consistency, the under is the cleaner side.

assistsUNDER 1.572%HIGH

His season assist mean is 1.35 and his last 5 drops to 0.8 APG, below the 1.5 line. The recent distribution shows a low-usage playmaking role, making the over difficult to justify.

threesUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.33 threes per game on the season and 1.3 in his last 5, but the line is still higher than both measures. His recent volume is only 1.0 fg3m per game in the last 5, so the under has the edge.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 SPG on the season and 0.6 in his last 5, which clears a 0.5 line. The edge is modest because steal outcomes are volatile, but the baseline is enough to lean over.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.97, and his recent stocks are 1.0, both below a 1.5 threshold. Even with occasional blocks, the combined count has not been strong enough to support the over.

turnoversOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He has 1.4 turnovers per game on the season and 1.5 over the last 10, which sits near this line. The recent workload is enough to keep the over in play if the book hangs a low number.

prUNDER 9.566%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is 9.7 PR using 6.9 PPG and 2.8 RPG, but recent form is weaker at 7.2 combined over the last 5. Given the over bias warning and his downward trend, the under is preferred.

paUNDER 7.564%MEDIUM

He averages 8.3 P+A on the season and 7.2 over his last 5, which makes 7.5 a borderline but slightly under-leaning line. His recent assist drop is the main concern for the over.

timelineUNDER 6.5 PTS