AI Model:

Nick Richards▲

CHI · C

PPG

6.0

RPG

5.2

APG

0.3

L5 PPG

9.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.2

6.0

9.2

RPG+2.0

5.2

7.2

APG+0.1

0.3

0.4

SPG-0.2

0.2

0.0

BPG+0.1

0.7

0.8

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

9.5

OKC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs OKC: 12 pts

PHX

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs PHX: 9 pts

SAC

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAC: 10 pts

GSW

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs GSW: 10 pts

LAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs LAL: 15 pts

LAC

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs LAC: 10 pts

MEM

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs MEM: 5 pts

TOR

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs TOR: 4 pts

CLE

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CLE: 16 pts

HOU

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs HOU: 11 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

REB

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

AST

UNDER 0.5

82%

3PM

UNDER 0.5

78%

BLK

OVER 0.5

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

UNDER 1.5

67%

PRA

UNDER 15

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.5

9.4

RPG

7.8

6.9

APG

0.2

0.8

vs PHI (H2H)13 games

PPG

10.8

RPG

6.1

APG

0.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Alperen Sengun	2	11	76%	+22.5%	low
Brook Lopez	4	10	60%	+8.8%	medium
Evan Mobley	1	9	63%	+11.3%	low
Robert Williams III	2	8	83%

Nick Richards’ recent rise meets a tough scoring environment

Richards is trending up, with his last 5 games at 9.2 PPG and 7.2 RPG compared to season marks of 6.0 PPG and 5.2 RPG, but that lift has already been priced into a bigger minutes role. His recent workload has jumped to 23.0 MPG from a 15.1 MPG season average, yet his season-long production still points to a lower baseline than his recent stretch. The matchup data is not especially favorable for efficiency, and the available value props lean to the under on points and rebounds. With his volatility still elevated, the safer projection is a modest line below his recent hot run.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.2(↑ from 6.0)

RPG

7.2(↑ from 5.2)

MPG

23.0(↑ from 15.1)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is provided in a way that justifies a one-on-one call. The opponent defense context shows a 116.15 defensive rating and 0.164 scoring suppression, which is not ideal for an efficiency-driven over.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Actual	Result
Nick Richards▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	30%	2	✓
Nick Richards▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	30%	5	✓
Nick Richards▼	Assists	0.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	40%	0	✓
Nick Richards▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	70%	0	✓
Nick Richards▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	50%	0	✗
Nick Richards▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	70%	0	✓
Nick Richards▼	Turnovers	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	50%	2	✗
Nick Richards▼	PRA	15	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	20%	7	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA19UNDER9%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)9/1947%▼

BLK1UNDER51%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x6/1932%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

FTA4UNDER28%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)7/1937%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A8UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x7/1937%▼

P+R17.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x13/1968%▼

P+A10OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x11/1958%▼

PTS10OVER2%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x8/1942%▼

REB7OVER21%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x9/1947%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM2UNDER23%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)8/1942%▼

Featured Pick

Nick Richards

Points UNDER 9.5HIGH

This is the clearest value on the board: the best book data shows a 0.197 edge with 0.743 implied probability on the under. Richards’ season scoring is only 6.0 PPG, so even with the recent boost in minutes and form, the 9.5 line still sits above his most stable baseline.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Adem Bona	1	2	2	100%	100%
Joel Embiid	1	1	6	100%	100%
Dominick Barlow	1	0	0	0%	0%
VJ Edgecombe	1	0	2	100%	100%
Quentin Grimes	1	0	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 9.574%HIGH

Season scoring is 6.0 PPG, well below the 9.5 line, and the value data shows the best side is UNDER with a 0.197 edge. His last 5 at 9.2 PPG is solid, but it is still only slightly below the number and comes with regression risk after the recent minutes spike.

reboundsUNDER 7.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is 5.2 RPG versus a 7.5 line, and the strongest book-side data also points UNDER with a 0.056 edge. Recent rebounding is up at 7.2 RPG over the last 5, but the season baseline is still meaningfully lower.

assistsUNDER 0.582%HIGH

He averages only 0.3 APG on the season and 0.4 APG over the last 5, so assist production remains extremely limited. With no meaningful passing volume, the under is the clear side.

threesUNDER 0.578%HIGH

He averages 0.11 threes per game for the season and 0.3 over the last 5, which is still below a standard half-made-three line. His low-volume perimeter role keeps this under attractive.

blocksOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 BPG on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, so a half-block line is within reach. The recent increase in minutes supports a modest over lean, though variance remains notable.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.93 and his last 10 is 1.1, both below 1.5. Even with recent defensive activity, the combined threshold is still a bit high.

turnoversUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

He averages 1.5 turnovers over the last 10 and 1.6 over the last 20, but only 0.8 in the last 5. With limited on-ball creation, he is not a high-turnover player overall.

praUNDER 1556%MEDIUM

Using his season baseline of 6.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 0.3 assists gives 11.5 PRA, well below a 15.0 line. Recent production has improved, but combo props carry extra variance and the season profile still favors the under.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS