AI Model:

Gui Santos▼

GSW · SF

PPG

8.3

RPG

3.8

APG

2.3

L5 PPG

12.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.1

8.3

12.4

RPG+0.6

3.8

4.4

APG+1.9

2.3

4.2

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

13.5

OKC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs OKC: 22 pts

UTA

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs UTA: 15 pts

CHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHI: 17 pts

MIN

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MIN: 17 pts

NYK

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs NYK: 20 pts

WAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs WAS: 18 pts

BOS

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BOS: 13 pts

DET

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DET: 13 pts

ATL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs ATL: 2 pts

DAL

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs DAL: 16 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 13.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

AST

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

52%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

58%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

72%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

61%

OVER 2.5

57%

PRA

UNDER 26.5

68%

P+A

UNDER 12.5

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.0

15.0

RPG

5.8

6.4

APG

3.9

4.4

vs BKN (H2H)3 games

PPG

5.0

RPG

4.0

APG

1.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Julius Randle	4	8	46%	-7.7%	medium
Amen Thompson	2	6	50%	-0.6%	low
Rudy Gobert	4	6	80%	+29.4%	medium
Naz Reid	4	6	75%

Minutes spike keeps Gui Santos in play, but scoring line is still inflated

Gui Santos has been playing far above his season baseline lately, with 15.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 4.5 APG over the last 10 while his season marks sit at 8.3/3.8/2.3. The biggest driver is workload: his minutes have jumped from 19.6 MPG on the season to 31.9 MPG over the last 10, and the Warriors are missing multiple rotation scorers, including Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler III. Even with that expanded role, his recent trend is down from the hottest stretch, and the books are hanging a much higher points number than his true season profile. The matchup data is not especially supportive of a big scoring spike, with no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed defenders and Brooklyn allowing a 115.75 defensive rating.

Stat Trends

PPG

12.4(↑ from 8.3)

RPG

4.4(↑ from 3.8)

APG

4.2(↑ from 2.3)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed Nets defenders, so there is no clear one-on-one defender edge to project from. Brooklyn's opponent defense shows a 115.75 defensive rating and 0.073 scoring suppression, which does not strongly support a ceiling outcome.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Gui Santos▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	2/2	30%	FLIP	31	✗
Gui Santos▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	60%	4.5→5.5	3	✓
Gui Santos▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	FLIP	1	✓
Gui Santos▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	50%		4	✓
Gui Santos▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	70%		2	✓
Gui Santos▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	80%	—	1	✗
Gui Santos▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	50%	FLIP	3	✗
Gui Santos▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%		5	✓
Gui Santos▼	PRA	26.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	—	35	✗
Gui Santos▼	P+A	12.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	10%	FLIP	32	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS15.5UNDER2%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

STL1.5UNDER34%gbt_stealsDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA26.5UNDER10%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

3PA5UNDER20%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

FTA4UNDER22%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)5/2025%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A20UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%▼

AST4OVER9%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 5x8/2040%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

3PM1.5OVER1%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTM2.5UNDER22%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

P+R22UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)7/2035%▼

REB5UNDER0%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Gui Santos

Points UNDER 13.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the data: his season average is 8.3 PPG, and the value props show UNDER 13.5 as the best side at multiple books with the strongest listed edge at 0.254 on DraftKings. The recent scoring spike is real, but it is heavily tied to a minutes surge to 31.9 MPG, and the current line still sits well above his season production.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Danny Wolf	1	3	0	0%	0%
Drake Powell	2	3	6	40%	60%
Josh Minott	1	2	0	0%	0%
Ziaire Williams	1	2	2	33%	33%
Jalen Wilson	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 13.578%HIGH

His season mean is 8.3 PPG, and the value data shows UNDER 13.5 as the best side at every listed book with a 0.254 best edge at DraftKings. The recent surge to 15.3 PPG is paired with a reduced trend over the last 5, and over-only pricing is being pushed by a minutes spike rather than a stable scoring baseline.

reboundsUNDER 5.570%HIGH

He averages 3.78 RPG on the season and 5.6 RPG over the last 10, but the rebound line is still above his season level and the value sheet shows UNDER 5.5 as the best side. Variance is moderate, but the season profile still leans below this number.

assistsUNDER 3.566%MEDIUM

Gui Santos is at 2.3 APG for the season, and although he has reached 4.5 APG over the last 10, the over bias warning and his high assist variance make this less trustworthy. The value data also points to UNDER 3.5 as the best side with a 0.047 edge at DraftKings.

threesOVER 1.552%MEDIUM

He averages 1.07 made threes per game on the season and 1.6 over the last 10, with 1.5 fg3mpg in the last 20 and 2.1 home fg3mpg. The edge is thin, but the volume and recent role keep 1.5 made threes in play.

stealsOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 SPG on the season and 1.2 SPG over the last 10, so clearing 0.5 is supported by both baseline and recent form. Stocks have also been consistently active, which helps this low threshold.

blocksUNDER 0.572%HIGH

His season average is only 0.3 BPG and his recent block rates have stayed at 0.2 or lower in the last 5 and last 10. This is a tough line to clear given the low baseline.

stocksUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 stocks on the season and 1.4 over the last 10, so this sits just above his typical output. The ceiling is there, but the standard deviation on stocks is meaningful relative to the mean.

turnoversOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

His recent turnover pace is elevated at 2.4 over the last 10 and 2.5 over the last 20, with 2.8 over the last 5. The added minutes and usage have come with mistakes, making the over more plausible than the season average alone would suggest.

praUNDER 26.568%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 14.4, while the last 10 combines to 25.4 from 15.3 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.5 assists. Even with the recent surge, combo props carry extra variance and the season baseline still points under 26.5.

paUNDER 12.567%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is 10.6, and the recent jump is being driven by inflated minutes rather than stable scoring efficiency. Combo props are volatile, so this is still a lean under.

timelineUNDER 13.5 PTS