AI Model:

Draymond Green▲

GSW · PF

PPG

8.6

RPG

5.6

APG

5.3

L5 PPG

8.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.2

8.6

8.4

RPG+0.6

5.6

6.2

APG+0.3

5.3

5.6

SPG+0.6

0.8

1.4

BPG-0.4

0.6

0.2

UNDER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

9.5

LAC

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs LAC: 4 pts

HOU

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs HOU: 10 pts

OKC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs OKC: 16 pts

UTA

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs UTA: 6 pts

CHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHI: 12 pts

WAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs WAS: 5 pts

BOS

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BOS: 13 pts

DET

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DET: 0 pts

ATL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs ATL: 13 pts

DAL

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs DAL: 11 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 9.5STAKE

74%

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

AST

OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

66%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

57%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

58%

OVER 2.5

67%

P+A

OVER 15.5STAKE

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

9.4

8.2

RPG

5.8

5.0

APG

4.9

5.9

vs BKN (H2H)8 games

PPG

7.0

RPG

7.0

APG

7.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Victor Wembanyama	4	25	53%	+6.4%	medium
Nikola Jokić	3	16	58%	+7.8%	medium
Zion Williamson	2	12	42%	-0.1%	low
Alperen Sengun	2	11	47%

Assist volume stays strong, but points and rebounds lean under

Draymond Green’s recent play is trending up in minutes and playmaking, with his last 10 averages sitting at 9.0 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 6.2 assists in 30.7 MPG versus season marks of 8.6, 5.6, and 5.3. The key caution is scoring efficiency: his points prop sits above both his season mean and his recent output, and his game log includes several low-scoring outings, including a 0-point game and multiple single-digit scoring nights. On the other hand, assists remain his clearest path, especially with teammate absences removing usage and creation from the rotation. Opponent absences also point to a more favorable environment for his all-around production, but the matchup still supports a conservative lean on scoring and rebounds rather than chasing the over.

Stat Trends

PPG

8.4(→ from 8.6)

RPG

6.2(↑ from 5.6)

APG

5.6(↑ from 5.3)

Key Matchup

Nic Claxton is the only listed defender with meaningful minutes, and there is no specific defender matchup data beyond that. Brooklyn’s defensive rating is 115.75 with a 100 pace, and the team’s scoring suppression is 0.073, which suggests a reasonably controlled environment rather than a pace-fueled spike.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Draymond Green▼	Points	9.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	40%		7	✓
Draymond Green▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	5.5→6.5	5	✓
Draymond Green▼	Assists	5.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	FLIP	3	✗
Draymond Green▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	40%		1	✗
Draymond Green▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	70%		2	✗
Draymond Green▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	20%		1	✓
Draymond Green▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	50%		3	✗
Draymond Green▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	—	60%		3	✓
Draymond Green▼	P+A	15.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	FLIP	10	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS9.5UNDER1%logisticDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge changed -0.070; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

R+A12UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

P+A15.5OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x13/2065%▼

PRA22.5OVER12%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x11/2055%No material changes▼

P+R14.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

AST6.5OVER12%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Value edge changed -0.042; Odds moved materially▼

REB5.5OVER4%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted -0.232; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

3PM1.5OVER9%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%Odds moved materially▼

Featured Pick

Draymond Green

Threes OVER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest positive-edge play in the data, with a 12.7% edge at DraftKings and a season average of 1.53 made threes. His last 10 sits at 1.7 made threes, so the recent form supports the season baseline without requiring an outlier performance.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Nic Claxton	2	7	4	50%	50%
Terance Mann	2	3	4	33%	33%
Drake Powell	2	2	0	0%	0%
Josh Minott	1	1	0	0%	0%
E.J. Liddell	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 9.574%HIGH

His season mean is 8.6 points and his last 5 is 8.4, both below the 9.5 line. The recent game log shows only 2 of the last 5 at 11+ points, so the over needs a better scoring night than his baseline.

reboundsUNDER 5.561%MEDIUM

He averages 5.6 rebounds for the season, but his last 10 is 5.1 and his away mean is 5.0. This is a thin edge, but the recent trend is slightly below the line and confidence should stay moderate.

assistsOVER 5.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is 5.33 assists and his last 10 jumps to 6.2 with 30.7 MPG recently. With teammate absences creating more on-ball responsibility, the over has a workable path despite the conservative prop profile.

threesOVER 1.568%MEDIUM

He averages 1.53 made threes on the season and 1.7 over the last 10, which supports clearing 1.5. The value data also shows a 12.7% edge on the over at this line.

stealsUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

He is at just 0.8 steals per game for the season and 1.0 over the last 10, so 2+ steals is still a tougher ask. The line requires a ceiling game, not his most common outcome.

blocksOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 blocks per game on the season, which is above the 0.5 line. This is a low-volume prop and the edge is not huge, but the season rate supports a slight over lean.

stocksUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.41 and recent form is 1.5 over the last 5, which keeps this close to the line. Because the underlying average is still below 1.5, the under is the safer side.

turnoversOVER 2.567%MEDIUM

Recent turnover rates are elevated at 3.8 over the last 5 and 2.9 over the last 10, above the season baseline implied by his role. His increased playmaking load makes 3+ turnovers a realistic outcome.

paOVER 15.560%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists production is roughly 13.9, but recent usage has pushed his last 10 scoring and passing higher. This is a combo prop with more variance, so the over is playable but not high confidence.

timelineUNDER 9.5 PTS