AI Model:

De'Anthony Melton▼

GSW · SG

PPG

12.8

RPG

3.1

APG

2.5

L5 PPG

13.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.4

12.8

13.2

RPG+0.5

3.1

3.6

APG+0.5

2.5

3.0

SPG-0.2

1.6

1.4

BPG0.0

0.4

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

14.5

LAL

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs LAL: 10 pts

LAC

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs LAC: 7 pts

HOU

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs HOU: 23 pts

UTA

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs UTA: 22 pts

MIN

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MIN: 12 pts

WAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs WAS: 27 pts

BOS

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BOS: 5 pts

DET

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DET: 14 pts

ATL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs ATL: 20 pts

DAL

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs DAL: 0 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

STL

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL+BLK

OVER 2

57%

P+A

UNDER 15.5STAKE

54%

P+R

UNDER 15.5STAKE

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.6

15.7

RPG

3.4

3.5

APG

3.3

2.4

vs BKN (H2H)7 games

PPG

15.6

RPG

4.4

APG

1.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Keyonte George	3	8	33%	-6.6%	medium
Jamal Murray	2	7	71%	+17.2%	low
Brandon Williams	2	7	43%	+3.0%	low
Collin Gillespie	3	6	0%

Melton’s defensive playmaking keeps him live, but scoring is more fragile

De'Anthony Melton is averaging 12.8 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.5 APG, and 1.6 SPG on the season, with last-10 production at 14.0 PPG and 2.8 APG over 24.6 MPG. His recent scoring has been volatile — he has games of 0, 5, and 7 points mixed with 20+ point outings — which makes the points market tricky despite the current absence boost on his team. The teammate absences from Jimmy Butler III (20 PPG), Stephen Curry (26.9 PPG), Moses Moody (12.1 PPG), and Seth Curry (6.8 PPG) should keep Melton involved, but the most stable edge still comes from steals/stocks rather than pure scoring. The matchup context is neutral to slightly favorable for all-around production, but the best number on the board is the points under at the higher line.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.2(→ from 12.8)

RPG

3.6(↑ from 3.1)

APG

3.0(↑ from 2.5)

SPG

1.4(↓ from 1.6)

Key Matchup

Nic Claxton is listed as a key defender, but he has only 3.1 minutes and 2 points allowed in the data, so there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on heavily. The opponent defense shows a 115.75 defensive rating and 0.073 scoring suppression, which is not a strong enough profile to force an over.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
De'Anthony Melton▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	12.5→14.5	14	✓
De'Anthony Melton▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	60%		9	✓
De'Anthony Melton▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%		3	✓
De'Anthony Melton▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	FLIP	1	✗
De'Anthony Melton▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	FLIP	4	✓
De'Anthony Melton▼	STL+BLK	2	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	30%	1.5→2	4	✓
De'Anthony Melton▼	P+A	15.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	60%		17	✗
De'Anthony Melton▼	P+R	15.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		23	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS13.5UNDER3%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

AST2.5OVER41%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 6x11/2055%▼

REB3.5UNDER2%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

3PA6UNDER65%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 5x4/2020%▼

PRA20.5UNDER34%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

P+R17OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

P+A16UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

3PM1.5OVER11%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

FTM2UNDER45%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

STL1UNDER9%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

FTA2UNDER24%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

De'Anthony Melton

Points UNDER 14.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because the season mean is 12.78 points and the value data shows a 14.4% edge on the UNDER with our_prob_under at 0.661. Even with teammate absences increasing opportunity, his recent scoring has been too inconsistent to justify chasing an over at 14.5.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Cam Thomas	1	3	2	33%	33%
Ben Saraf	1	3	4	40%	40%
Egor Dëmin	1	2	6	40%	60%
Tyson Etienne	1	2	5	100%	125%
Drake Powell	2	2	2	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 14.568%MEDIUM

Season mean is 12.78 points, below the 14.5 line, and the value data shows a 14.4% edge on the UNDER with our_prob_under at 0.661. His recent scoring has been volatile, and the season baseline is lower than the current market.

reboundsOVER 3.555%MEDIUM

He is averaging 3.1 RPG on the season and 3.8 RPG over the last 10, so this is close to the number but supported by recent minutes at 24.6 MPG. The edge is small, so confidence stays moderate.

assistsOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

Melton’s season average is 2.45 APG, but his last-5 is 3.0 and the teammate absences should keep his ball-handling involvement elevated. The market is shaded heavily toward the over at this line, so confidence is only moderate.

threesOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.5 threes per game season-long and 1.5 over the last 10, with 1.6 away and 1.7 at home in the provided splits. The line is right on the mean, so this is a modest lean rather than a strong play.

stealsOVER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.6 SPG on the season and 1.8 over the last 20, while his away steal rate is 2.3. That profile supports a live over despite the usual volatility of steals.

stocksOVER 257%MEDIUM

He averages 1.95 stocks on the season and 2.0 over the last 10, which makes 2.0 a fair projection. Variance is still meaningful, so this stays a secondary play.

paUNDER 15.554%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile is 12.8 PPG and 2.5 APG, which totals below 15.5 before even accounting for his recent scoring volatility. This is a conservative lean because the absences can inflate usage.

prUNDER 15.557%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds baseline is 15.88, but the current market is close and his scoring is not stable enough to trust the over. The under is helped by his season point mean sitting below the current scoring environment.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS