AI Model:

Brandin Podziemski▲

GSW · PG

PPG

13.0

RPG

5.3

APG

3.7

L5 PPG

12.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.0

13.0

12.0

RPG-0.1

5.3

5.2

APG-0.1

3.7

3.6

SPG-0.3

1.1

0.8

BPG+0.2

0.2

0.4

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

14.5

OKC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs OKC: 17 pts

UTA

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs UTA: 14 pts

CHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHI: 9 pts

MIN

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MIN: 25 pts

NYK

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs NYK: 25 pts

WAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs WAS: 10 pts

BOS

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BOS: 10 pts

DET

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DET: 15 pts

ATL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs ATL: 5 pts

DAL

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs DAL: 20 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

79%

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

AST

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

STL

UNDER 1.5

72%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

83%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

67%

OVER 2

58%

PRA

UNDER 21.5

61%

P+A

UNDER 16.5STAKE

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.8

15.9

RPG

7.1

6.9

APG

5.0

4.0

vs BKN (H2H)5 games

PPG

9.6

RPG

3.8

APG

3.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Christian Braun	4	12	67%	+21.1%	medium
Kris Dunn	3	10	81%	+16.9%	medium
Austin Reaves	3	10	43%	-2.7%	medium
Jaylen Wells	3	9	17%

Podziemski’s minutes are up, but the scoring line is still inflated

Brandin Podziemski is trending up overall, with his last 10 games at 15.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG, and 4.3 APG over 32.4 MPG, all above his season marks of 13.0/5.3/3.7. Even so, his recent form has been volatile: his last 5 are only 12.0 PPG and 3.6 APG, which is a clear step down from the last 20-game sample. The matchup setup is mixed — opponent defense shows a 115.75 def rating and 100 pace, while opponent absences open some usage, but the market points and assist lines still sit above his season baseline. Because the over bias is costly here and his season mean is lower than the recent spike, the cleaner angle is to fade the high-end scoring and passing numbers.

Stat Trends

PPG

12.0(↓ from 13.0)

RPG

5.2(→ from 5.3)

APG

3.6(→ from 3.7)

Key Matchup

The opponent defense data shows a 115.75 defensive rating and a 100 pace, with 0.073 scoring suppression and 2.411 three suppression. There is no specific defender matchup data, so the read is based on the team context and the available key defender snippets rather than a named primary stopper.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Brandin Podziemski▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	79%HIGH	2/2	50%	FLIP	22	✗
Brandin Podziemski▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	FLIP	6	✗
Brandin Podziemski▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	50%	FLIP	5	✗
Brandin Podziemski▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	60%		2	✓
Brandin Podziemski▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	60%		0	✓
Brandin Podziemski▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	83%HIGH	—	70%		0	✓
Brandin Podziemski▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	—	40%		0	✓
Brandin Podziemski▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	40%		3	✓
Brandin Podziemski▼	PRA	21.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	—	33	✗
Brandin Podziemski▼	P+A	16.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	40%		27	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA25.5OVER44%gbt_praDecent Leg (15/20)12/2060%+8.5% edgeConfidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

PTS15.5OVER20%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)OVER 2x12/2060%+7.6% edge▼

REB5.5OVER18%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x13/2065%+13.3% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.339; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+A22OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)11/2055%▼

AST4.5OVER12%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.168▼

R+A10.5OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

P+R23.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

STL1UNDER32%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (11/20)7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA6UNDER19%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTM2.5UNDER19%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTA4UNDER12%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%▼

3PM2.5OVER5%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed +0.064▼

Featured Pick

Brandin Podziemski

Points UNDER 14.5HIGH

This is the clearest value spot because the best available market data flags UNDER 14.5 as the top side with a 0.181 edge, and the season average is only 13.0 PPG. His last 5 at 12.0 PPG and the presence of multiple teammate absences still do not fully justify a line that sits above his typical scoring level.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Drake Powell	2	5	0	0%	0%
Terance Mann	2	4	0	0%	0%
Egor Dëmin	1	2	2	0%	0%
Ben Saraf	1	1	2	100%	100%
Nolan Traore	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 14.579%HIGH

His season mean is 13.0 PPG and the value model shows the UNDER as the best side at this line with a 0.181 edge. The last 5 at 12.0 PPG does not justify pricing above 14.5, especially with his recent scoring below the last 10 and last 20 peaks.

reboundsUNDER 5.564%MEDIUM

He averages 5.25 rebounds for the season and the best available value at 5.5 is UNDER with a 0.053 edge. His recent mean is 5.7, but the gap is small enough to prefer the season baseline and avoid paying for the uptick.

assistsUNDER 4.570%HIGH

Season assists are 3.68 and the value data shows UNDER 4.5 as the best side with a 0.129 edge. His recent 4.3 APG is closer, but still below the line and his season profile does not support consistent 5+ assist production.

threesOVER 1.562%MEDIUM

He averages 1.79 made threes per game on the season and 2.1 over the last 10, so 1.5 is below his normal volume. The value set also shows OVER as the best side with a 0.117 edge.

stealsUNDER 1.572%HIGH

He averages 1.1 steals on the season, while the 1.5 line is above his typical output. His last 5 at 0.8 steals reinforces the UNDER lean, and the line is simply too high for his baseline.

blocksUNDER 0.583%HIGH

His season average is only 0.2 blocks and the recent numbers stay at 0.4 over the last 5 and 0.3 over the last 10. Even with improved minutes, 0.5 is still a strong UNDER profile.

stocksUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

He averages 1.28 stocks for the season and 1.5 over the last 10, but that still leaves the 1.5 line at the edge of his range. Because combined defensive stats are volatile and the season mean is below the line, the UNDER is safer.

turnoversOVER 258%MEDIUM

He is at 2.1 turnovers in the last 10 and 1.9 over the last 20, with 2.2 in the last 5, so this sits near or above the expected range. Increased ball-handling from teammate absences supports a modest OVER lean.

praUNDER 21.561%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 22.0, but that is being pulled up by recent games and role expansion, while the last 5 combination is less explosive. Combo props carry extra variance, so the season-based UNDER lean is preferable at a market line around the low 20s.

paUNDER 16.566%MEDIUM

His season P+A is 16.68, and the available book line of 16.5 is right on top of that baseline. Since his assists are still below 4 per game season-long and the points line is overpriced, the UNDER has the cleaner profile.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS