Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Braun | 4 | 12 | 67% | +21.1% | medium |
| Kris Dunn | 3 | 10 | 81% | +16.9% | medium |
| Austin Reaves | 3 | 10 | 43% | -2.7% | medium |
| Jaylen Wells | 3 | 9 | 17% |
Brandin Podziemski is trending up overall, with his last 10 games at 15.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG, and 4.3 APG over 32.4 MPG, all above his season marks of 13.0/5.3/3.7. Even so, his recent form has been volatile: his last 5 are only 12.0 PPG and 3.6 APG, which is a clear step down from the last 20-game sample. The matchup setup is mixed — opponent defense shows a 115.75 def rating and 100 pace, while opponent absences open some usage, but the market points and assist lines still sit above his season baseline. Because the over bias is costly here and his season mean is lower than the recent spike, the cleaner angle is to fade the high-end scoring and passing numbers.
The opponent defense data shows a 115.75 defensive rating and a 100 pace, with 0.073 scoring suppression and 2.411 three suppression. There is no specific defender matchup data, so the read is based on the team context and the available key defender snippets rather than a named primary stopper.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Evolution | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brandin Podziemski▼ | Points | 14.5 | UNDER | 79%HIGH | 2/2 | 50% | FLIP | 22 | ✗ |
Brandin Podziemski▼ | Rebounds | 5.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | FLIP | 6 | ✗ |
Brandin Podziemski▼ | Assists | 4.5 | UNDER | 70%HIGH | 2/2 | 50% | FLIP | 5 | ✗ |
Brandin Podziemski▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | OVER | 62%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 2 | ✓ | |
Brandin Podziemski▼ | Steals | 1.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | 2/2 | 60% | 0 | ✓ | |
Brandin Podziemski▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 83%HIGH | — | 70% | 0 | ✓ | |
Brandin Podziemski▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | — | 40% | 0 | ✓ | |
Brandin Podziemski▼ | Turnovers | 2 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | — | 40% | 3 | ✓ | |
Brandin Podziemski▼ | PRA | 21.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | — | 33 | ✗ |
Brandin Podziemski▼ | P+A | 16.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 27 | ✗ |
This is the clearest value spot because the best available market data flags UNDER 14.5 as the top side with a 0.181 edge, and the season average is only 13.0 PPG. His last 5 at 12.0 PPG and the presence of multiple teammate absences still do not fully justify a line that sits above his typical scoring level.
| medium |
| Jordan Goodwin | 4 | 8 | 100% | +29.4% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Powell | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Terance Mann | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Egor Dëmin | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 0% |
| Ben Saraf | 1 | 1 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
| Nolan Traore | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 13.0 PPG and the value model shows the UNDER as the best side at this line with a 0.181 edge. The last 5 at 12.0 PPG does not justify pricing above 14.5, especially with his recent scoring below the last 10 and last 20 peaks.
He averages 5.25 rebounds for the season and the best available value at 5.5 is UNDER with a 0.053 edge. His recent mean is 5.7, but the gap is small enough to prefer the season baseline and avoid paying for the uptick.
Season assists are 3.68 and the value data shows UNDER 4.5 as the best side with a 0.129 edge. His recent 4.3 APG is closer, but still below the line and his season profile does not support consistent 5+ assist production.
He averages 1.79 made threes per game on the season and 2.1 over the last 10, so 1.5 is below his normal volume. The value set also shows OVER as the best side with a 0.117 edge.
He averages 1.1 steals on the season, while the 1.5 line is above his typical output. His last 5 at 0.8 steals reinforces the UNDER lean, and the line is simply too high for his baseline.
His season average is only 0.2 blocks and the recent numbers stay at 0.4 over the last 5 and 0.3 over the last 10. Even with improved minutes, 0.5 is still a strong UNDER profile.
He averages 1.28 stocks for the season and 1.5 over the last 10, but that still leaves the 1.5 line at the edge of his range. Because combined defensive stats are volatile and the season mean is below the line, the UNDER is safer.
He is at 2.1 turnovers in the last 10 and 1.9 over the last 20, with 2.2 in the last 5, so this sits near or above the expected range. Increased ball-handling from teammate absences supports a modest OVER lean.
His season PRA is 22.0, but that is being pulled up by recent games and role expansion, while the last 5 combination is less explosive. Combo props carry extra variance, so the season-based UNDER lean is preferable at a market line around the low 20s.
His season P+A is 16.68, and the available book line of 16.5 is right on top of that baseline. Since his assists are still below 4 per game season-long and the points line is overpriced, the UNDER has the cleaner profile.