AI Model:

Tobias Harris▼

DET · PF

PPG

13.1

RPG

5.2

APG

2.4

L5 PPG

13.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.3

13.1

13.4

RPG+1.0

5.2

6.2

APG+2.2

2.4

4.6

SPG-0.5

0.9

0.4

BPG+0.8

0.4

1.2

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

14.5

SAS

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAS: 11 pts

BKN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs BKN: 18 pts

MIA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIA: 9 pts

BKN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BKN: 2 pts

PHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHI: 15 pts

TOR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs TOR: 21 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 12 pts

WAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs WAS: 7 pts

GSW

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs GSW: 13 pts

LAL

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs LAL: 14 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

51%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

60%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

UNDER 1

63%

PRA

UNDER 24.5

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.8

13.0

RPG

6.9

5.8

APG

2.6

2.1

vs ATL (H2H)17 games

PPG

18.1

RPG

6.2

APG

2.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaylen Brown	4	29	31%	-16.7%	medium
Brandon Ingram	3	14	57%	+6.9%	medium
Miles Bridges	2	13	28%	-24.2%	low
Jalen Johnson	3	12	47%

Tobias Harris brings steady volume, but the edge leans to the under on points and assists

Harris is averaging 13.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG, and 2.4 APG on the season, with his last 5 games showing a mild assist spike to 4.6 APG but only 13.4 PPG. His recent scoring trend is down, as the last 10 games sit at 12.2 PPG versus the season mark, and his minutes have stayed fairly stable around 27-29. Against Atlanta, his historical production is stronger at 18.11764705882353 PPG and 6.176470588235294 RPG over 17 games, but the current market and recent form point more toward moderation than a breakout. The safest projection is around his season baseline, with under interest on the main scoring and playmaking numbers.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.4(→ from 13.1)

RPG

6.2(↑ from 5.2)

APG

4.6(↑ from 2.4)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available for this game. Atlanta's team defense context is mixed, with a 116.39 defensive rating and 0.217 scoring suppression, which is enough to keep expectations closer to Harris's season baseline than his stronger historical head-to-head output.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Tobias Harris▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	70%	FLIP	22	✗
Tobias Harris▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	FLIP	3	✓
Tobias Harris▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	60%	FLIP	3	✓
Tobias Harris▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	51%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	1→1.5	2	✓
Tobias Harris▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	40%		1	✓
Tobias Harris▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%		1	✗
Tobias Harris▼	Turnovers	1	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	90%	FLIP	1	✗
Tobias Harris▼	PRA	24.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	—	28	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+A17OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 7x12/1963%▼

P+R19OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)10/1953%▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)9/1947%▼

Featured Pick

Tobias Harris

Points UNDER 14.5HIGH

This is the cleanest play because the season mean is 13.13 PPG, the last 10 is 12.2 PPG, and the value model shows a 12.7% edge to the under at DraftKings. His recent form does not justify paying for a mid-teens scoring line.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Johnson	3	12	20	41%	47%
Zaccharie Risacher	3	7	2	50%	50%
Dyson Daniels	3	3	6	60%	60%
Vít Krejčí	2	3	0	0%	0%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	3	2	4	33%	33%

pointsUNDER 14.574%HIGH

His season mean is 13.13 PPG and his last 10 is 12.2, both below 14.5. Value data also shows a 12.7% edge on the under at DraftKings, with our_prob_under at 0.689.

reboundsUNDER 5.558%MEDIUM

He averages 5.24 rebounds on the season and 5.3 over the last 10, so 5.5 sits just above his typical output. The under is supported by the season baseline, though the edge is modest.

assistsUNDER 3.572%HIGH

Season assists are 2.41, and even the recent 2.9 average is still below 3.5. The value data shows a 9.6% edge to the under at DraftKings.

threesOVER 1.551%MEDIUM

He averages 1.26 made threes for the season and 1.0 over the last 10, so 1.5 is reachable but not comfortable. The market edge is small, so this is a low-confidence lean only.

stealsOVER 0.560%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 0.9, which clears 0.5, and he remains active enough defensively to support a make-or-break over. This is a volume-based over rather than a strong trend play.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.3 stocks on the season and 1.6 over the last 20, so 1.5 is near his recent level. The volatility is real, but his defensive event rate makes the over viable.

turnoversUNDER 163%MEDIUM

He has 0.8 turnovers in the last 5 and 0.8 over the last 20, with 1.0 over the last 10. That profile supports staying under 1.5 and makes 1.0 a low-volume threshold.

praUNDER 24.561%MEDIUM

His season baseline projects to roughly 20.7 PRA from 13.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.4 assists. Combo props are higher variance, but the season profile is well below 24.5.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS