AI Model:

Mouhamed Gueye▲

ATL · PF

PPG

4.6

RPG

3.6

APG

0.9

L5 PPG

3.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.8

4.6

3.8

RPG0.0

3.6

APG+0.3

0.9

1.2

SPG+0.2

0.8

1.0

BPG+0.3

0.5

0.8

UNDER 8.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

8.5

POR

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs POR: 2 pts

MIL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MIL: 8 pts

PHI

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs PHI: 2 pts

DAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs DAL: 9 pts

BKN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BKN: 4 pts

MIL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIL: 0 pts

ORL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ORL: 0 pts

HOU

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs HOU: 0 pts

GSW

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs GSW: 16 pts

MEM

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs MEM: 3 pts

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 8.5STAKE

78%

REB

UNDER 6.5STAKE

74%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

76%

3PM

UNDER 0.5

63%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

72%

BLK

UNDER 1.5STAKE

77%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

64%

OVER 0.5

58%

P+R

UNDER 16.5STAKE

71%

P+A

UNDER 10.5STAKE

69%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

3.5

6.4

RPG

3.7

4.0

APG

0.6

0.4

vs DET (H2H)4 games

PPG

5.5

RPG

4.0

APG

0.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Paolo Banchero	3	9	13%	-32.7%	medium
DeMar DeRozan	2	8	63%	+13.1%	low
Jalen Duren	3	7	88%	+42.3%	medium
Kel'el Ware	3	6	57%

Role player with defensive juice, but scoring upside remains capped

Mouhamed Gueye's season production is modest at 4.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG, and 0.9 APG across 15.6 MPG, and his recent minutes have actually dipped to 12.9 MPG over the last 10. His last 5 show a small uptick in activity with 3.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 1.2 APG, and 1.8 stocks, but that comes with very volatile game logs and a low scoring floor. Against Detroit, the absence of multiple opposing rotation pieces helps the environment, yet his own usage profile still points more toward low-end counting stats than a breakout. With the market setting his points at 8.5 and rebounds at 6.5, the season-long baseline and high variance both lean conservative.

Stat Trends

PPG

3.8(↓ from 4.6)

RPG

3.6(→ from 3.6)

APG

1.2(↑ from 0.9)

Stocks

1.8(↑ from 1.4)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on. Detroit's opponent context is slightly favorable with Cade Cunningham, Isaiah Stewart, Jaden Ivey, and Marcus Sasser all out or doubtful, but that mainly helps the environment rather than Gueye's individual usage projection.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Result
Mouhamed Gueye▼	Points	8.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	2/2	80%	✓
Mouhamed Gueye▼	Rebounds	6.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	90%	✓
Mouhamed Gueye▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	76%HIGH	—	80%	✓
Mouhamed Gueye▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	70%	✓
Mouhamed Gueye▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	70%	✓
Mouhamed Gueye▼	Blocks	1.5	UNDER	77%HIGH	—	90%	✓
Mouhamed Gueye▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	50%	✓
Mouhamed Gueye▼	Turnovers	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	30%	✗
Mouhamed Gueye▼	P+R	16.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	1/2	90%	✓
Mouhamed Gueye▼	P+A	10.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA9UNDER16%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)7/1450%▼

P+R9UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x5/1436%▼

PTS3UNDER10%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)6/1443%▼

3PA1.5UNDER12%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)7/1450%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

R+A5.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x5/1436%▼

P+A5.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)7/1450%▼

REB4UNDER25%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x6/1443%▼

Featured Pick

Mouhamed Gueye

Points UNDER 8.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge because his season average is 4.6 PPG, his last 10 are 4.4 PPG, and his recent minutes are only 12.9 MPG. Even with opponent absences, the line is nearly double his season scoring mean, making the under the strongest play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Duren	3	7	14	88%	88%
Ronald Holland II	3	4	4	100%	100%
Paul Reed	3	3	4	100%	100%
Isaiah Stewart	3	3	0	0%	0%
Ausar Thompson	3	2	4	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 8.578%HIGH

He averages just 4.6 points per game for the season and 4.4 over the last 10, well below 8.5. The recent spike is not enough to override the lower seasonal baseline, especially with only 12.9 MPG over the last 10.

reboundsUNDER 6.574%HIGH

Season rebounding sits at 3.6 RPG and last 10 at 3.3 RPG, both far under the line. Even his home split of 3.7 RPG and opponent average of 4.0 RPG vs this team do not get him close enough to 6.5.

assistsUNDER 1.576%HIGH

He averages 0.9 APG on the season and only 0.6 APG over the last 10. His role does not suggest enough creation volume to clear 1.5 consistently.

threesUNDER 0.563%MEDIUM

Season three-point volume is only 0.51 made threes per game, with recent mean at 0.7 but just 0.6 over the last 20. The variance is meaningful, but the baseline still slightly favors the under.

stealsUNDER 1.572%HIGH

He averages 0.8 steals per game on the season, which is below a 1.5 line. His last 5 at 1.0 SPG is better, but the season number and line remain too high for an over.

blocksUNDER 1.577%HIGH

He averages 0.5 blocks per game for the season and 0.5 over the last 10, so 1.5 requires a clear outlier. The market line is well above his normal range.

stocksUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

Season stocks average is 1.35 and last 10 is 1.2, both below 1.5. His last 5 jumped to 1.8, but the standard path remains under the line.

turnoversOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He has 0.6 turnovers per game over the last 5 and 0.4 over the last 10, so a 0.5 line is playable on the over. This is still a low-volume prop, so confidence stays modest.

prUNDER 16.571%HIGH

His season points plus rebounds output is 8.2 PR, and even with recent activity the profile stays far below 16.5. This is a high bar for a rotation player with limited minutes.

paUNDER 10.569%MEDIUM

Season P+A is only 5.5, and last 10 assist production has been just 0.6 APG. He would need a major usage jump to threaten this line.

timelineUNDER 8.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Role player with defensive juice, but scoring upside remains capped

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 8.5 PTS