AI Model:

Javonte Green—

DET · PF

PPG

6.8

RPG

2.7

APG

0.7

L5 PPG

4.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.0

6.8

4.8

RPG-0.7

2.7

2.0

APG-0.3

0.7

0.4

SPG-0.7

1.3

0.6

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

OVER 4.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

4.5

BKN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs BKN: 5 pts

MIA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIA: 6 pts

BKN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BKN: 8 pts

PHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHI: 17 pts

MEM

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MEM: 6 pts

TOR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs TOR: 8 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 3 pts

WAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs WAS: 2 pts

GSW

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs GSW: 5 pts

LAL

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs LAL: 6 pts

Over 4.5

Under 4.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 4.5STAKE

58%

REB

UNDER 2.5STAKE

61%

AST

OVER 0.5

55%

3PM

UNDER 1

57%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

64%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

55%

P+R

UNDER 7.5STAKE

63%

P+A

UNDER 5.5STAKE

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

5.9

RPG

2.1

2.9

APG

0.5

vs ATL (H2H)13 games

PPG

5.8

RPG

2.8

APG

0.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Matas Buzelis	4	10	50%	-1.4%	medium
LeBron James	2	9	44%	-6.8%	low
Lauri Markkanen	2	8	44%	-11.0%	low
Quentin Grimes	3	7	88%

Low-usage role keeps Green’s scoring upside capped

Javonte Green’s season averages sit at 6.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 0.7 assists in 17.7 MPG, but his last 5 have dipped to 4.8 points and 12.0 MPG. His recent game log shows short spurts of production, with just one 17-point outlier and several games in the 2-8 point range, which makes his scoring projection fairly modest. Against Atlanta, his season matchup history is 5.846153846153846 PPG and 2.769230769230769 RPG across 13 games, so the data points to limited offensive volume rather than a breakout. With no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders and a defense profile that includes 116.39 rating and 100 pace, the safest angle is to lean under on the higher-volume scoring and combo markets.

Stat Trends

PPG

4.8(↓ from 6.8)

RPG

2.0(↓ from 2.7)

APG

0.4(↓ from 0.7)

Stocks

0.8(↓ from 1.6)

3PM

0.6(↓ from 1.1)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the matchup should be treated as a general team environment. His 13-game history vs Atlanta is 5.846153846153846 PPG and 2.769230769230769 RPG, which reinforces a modest production outlook.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Javonte Green▼	Points	4.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	7	✓
Javonte Green▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	3	✗
Javonte Green▼	Assists	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✓
Javonte Green▼	3PM	1	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	1	✗
Javonte Green▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✓
Javonte Green▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✗
Javonte Green▼	P+R	7.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	10	✗
Javonte Green▼	P+A	5.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	9	✗

ML Scout Analysis

FTM2UNDER56%gbtDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 6x5/1631%▼

FTA2UNDER38%gbtDecent Leg (13/20)6/1638%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A10UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)4/1625%▼

3PA3.5OVER10%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 4x8/1650%▼

PRA12OVER55%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x6/1638%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

R+A4UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 4x5/1631%▼

P+R12.5UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x6/1638%▼

PTS8OVER11%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)5/1631%▼

REB3UNDER9%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x5/1631%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

STL1UNDER31%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (11/20)6/1638%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PM1.5OVER10%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 5x8/1650%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

Featured Pick

Javonte Green

Rebounds UNDER 2.5HIGH

His season average is 2.72 rebounds, but the last 5 have dropped to 2.0 and his minutes have fallen to 12.0 in that span. The line is close enough to his mean that the recent role reduction makes the under the cleanest play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Johnson	3	6	6	43%	43%
Dyson Daniels	4	3	0	0%	0%
Mouhamed Gueye	3	3	4	100%	100%
Asa Newell	2	3	3	100%	100%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	3	2	3	50%	75%

pointsOVER 4.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 6.79 points and even his recent mean is 6.6, both above 4.5. The line is low enough that a modest 15-18 minute role can clear it despite the recent dip to 4.8 PPG.

reboundsUNDER 2.561%MEDIUM

He averages 2.72 rebounds on the season and 2.2 over the last 5, which leaves little cushion above 2.5. His minutes have also fallen to 12.0 in the last 5, reducing rebound chances further.

assistsOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

The season mean is 0.66 assists and the recent mean is 0.6, so 0.5 is a reachable threshold. The low standard deviation does not create much upside, but it’s a reasonable floor play.

threesUNDER 157%MEDIUM

He averages 1.06 threes on the season, but only 0.6 over the last 5 with 0.6 FG3M per game. With the recent trend down and a relatively high variance profile, the under is the safer side.

stealsOVER 0.564%MEDIUM

He averages 1.3 steals on the season and 1.4 over the last 10, which is well above 0.5. Even with some volatility, his steal rate supports clearing this line.

stocksOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

Season stocks are 1.56 and last 10 are 1.6, so the line sits right near his typical output. Because the variance is elevated, confidence stays modest.

prUNDER 7.563%MEDIUM

He averages 6.8 points and 2.7 rebounds, but the last 5 have fallen to 4.8 and 2.0. This combo needs a cleaner scoring night than his recent usage suggests.

paUNDER 5.562%MEDIUM

He averages just 0.7 assists, so this prop is heavily dependent on points alone. With points trending down to 4.8 in the last 5, the under is the better value.

timelineOVER 4.5 PTS