AI Model:

Jalen Duren▼

DET · C

PPG

19.2

RPG

10.5

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

24.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.4

19.2

24.6

RPG-0.5

10.5

10.0

APG-0.5

1.7

1.2

SPG-0.3

0.9

0.6

BPG-0.6

0.8

0.2

UNDER 22.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

22.5

BKN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs BKN: 17 pts

MIA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIA: 24 pts

BKN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BKN: 26 pts

PHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHI: 14 pts

MEM

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MEM: 30 pts

TOR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs TOR: 20 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 36 pts

WAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs WAS: 24 pts

GSW

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs GSW: 23 pts

LAL

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs LAL: 20 pts

Over 22.5

Under 22.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 22.5BETMGM

84%

REB

UNDER 11.5FANDUEL

66%

AST

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

STL

OVER 0.5

56%

BLK

OVER 0.5

58%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

P+R

UNDER 28.5STAKE

63%

R+A

OVER 13.5STAKE

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

21.4

21.8

RPG

11.5

9.1

APG

1.5

1.3

vs ATL (H2H)10 games

PPG

14.3

RPG

7.6

APG

1.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Nic Claxton	4	27	57%	-7.5%	medium
Onyeka Okongwu	4	25	61%	-12.0%	medium
Neemias Queta	3	23	71%	+6.8%	medium
Wendell Carter Jr.	4	23	75%

Duren’s volume is strong, but the market still leans to the under on his scoring

Jalen Duren is in solid form offensively, with 24.6 PPG over his last 5 and 23.4 over his last 10, both above his 19.2 season average. That said, his season profile is more balanced than the recent spike, and his points prop is already sitting well above that baseline at 22.5. The matchup adds some resistance: Atlanta has a 116.39 defensive rating, and Duren’s 10-game history vs this opponent is only 14.3 PPG and 7.6 RPG across 10 games. With his home rebounding split strong at 11.5 RPG, rebounds remain steadier than scoring, but the scoring line looks a bit rich relative to season production.

Stat Trends

PPG

24.6(↑ from 19.2)

RPG

10.0(→ from 10.5)

APG

1.2(↓ from 1.7)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, and the opponent context shows Atlanta with a 116.39 defensive rating and 100 pace. Duren’s 10-game history vs this opponent is only 14.3 PPG and 7.6 RPG, which is a meaningful drag on his ceiling.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Jalen Duren▼	Points	22.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	2/2	40%	FLIP	26	✗
Jalen Duren▼	Rebounds	11.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	FLIP	14	✗
Jalen Duren▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%		3	✗
Jalen Duren▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	50%		0	✗
Jalen Duren▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	60%		2	✓
Jalen Duren▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%		2	✓
Jalen Duren▼	P+R	28.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	10%	FLIP	40	✗
Jalen Duren▼	R+A	13.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	11.5→13.5	17	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA32.5OVER20%gbt_praDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PTS22.5UNDER15%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

AST2OVER46%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 8x8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

FTA7.5UNDER6%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

R+A12.5OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

P+A24UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

REB10.5OVER20%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

BLK1UNDER48%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x6/2030%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

FTM6UNDER29%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+R32UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Duren

Points UNDER 22.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value on the board, with the provided value data showing a 28.7% edge and 56.12 EV per 100 at BetMGM. Even with a strong recent scoring stretch, his season average is 19.2 PPG and his head-to-head mark vs Atlanta is 14.3 PPG across 10 games.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Onyeka Okongwu	4	25	26	53%	61%
Jock Landale	1	7	0	0%	0%
Mouhamed Gueye	3	5	6	40%	50%
Dyson Daniels	4	5	6	25%	25%
Jalen Johnson	4	3	8	60%	80%

pointsUNDER 22.584%HIGH

Value props show an UNDER on 22.5 with a 28.7% edge and 56.12 EV per 100 at BetMGM. His season mean is 19.2, and despite the recent 24.6 last-5 run, his vs-opponent average is only 14.3 PPG over 10 games.

reboundsUNDER 11.566%MEDIUM

His season rebound average is 10.5 and recent mean is 9.6, both below 11.5. The home split is stronger at 11.5 RPG, but the market number still asks for a ceiling outcome rather than his more common output.

assistsUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

He averages just 1.67 assists for the season and 1.3 over the last 5, so the under is supported by both baseline and recent form. Assist variance is low here, and his role remains centered on scoring and rebounding.

stealsOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals per game on the season, which clears the 0.5 line. This is a higher-variance stat, but his season volume supports a slight over lean.

blocksOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 blocks per game for the season and 1.0 over the last 10, both above the line. The recent game log also shows multiple block outcomes, including 3 blocks on 2026-03-07.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.69, with 1.7 over the last 10 and 1.6 over the last 20. That puts him just over the threshold, though the standard deviation is high enough to keep confidence modest.

prUNDER 28.563%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds baseline is about 29.7, but the 28.5 line assumes continued scoring at a level above his season norm. Because combo props carry extra variance, the under is the safer side here.

raOVER 13.560%MEDIUM

He combines 10.5 rebounds with 1.7 assists on the season, and his rebound volume at home is strong at 11.5 RPG. This is still a volatile combo, but the baseline clears 13.5 more often than not.

timelineUNDER 22.5 PTS