AI Model:

Duncan Robinson▲

DET · SG

PPG

11.9

RPG

2.7

APG

2.0

L5 PPG

9.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.7

11.9

9.2

RPG-0.3

2.7

2.4

APG+0.4

2.0

2.4

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

BKN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs BKN: 15 pts

MIA

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIA: 3 pts

BKN

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BKN: 15 pts

PHI

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHI: 19 pts

MEM

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MEM: 14 pts

TOR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs TOR: 1 pts

WAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs WAS: 8 pts

WAS

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs WAS: 14 pts

GSW

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs GSW: 11 pts

LAL

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs LAL: 12 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

REB

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

STL

UNDER 0.5STAKE

64%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

67%

UNDER 2

68%

P+R

UNDER 11.5STAKE

61%

P+A

OVER 10.5STAKE

52%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.5

9.8

RPG

2.1

3.0

APG

3.2

2.0

vs ATL (H2H)16 games

PPG

13.2

RPG

2.7

APG

2.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Isaac Okoro	4	17	0%	-44.8%	medium
Sam Merrill	3	15	69%	+5.2%	medium
Tre Johnson	3	14	64%	+12.3%	medium
Ben Sheppard	3	13	14%

Robinson leans under-friendly on points, with threes still his cleanest scoring path

Duncan Robinson is averaging 11.9 PPG on the season, with 11.2 PPG over his last 10 and 9.2 PPG over his last 5, so the recent scoring trend has cooled a bit versus his season baseline. His home split is stronger than his road split, but tonight’s matchup is against an Atlanta defense with a 116.39 defensive rating and 0.217 scoring suppression, which supports a more modest projection. The biggest edge in the data is on his points under at 11.5, while his three-point volume remains respectable at 2.81 made threes per game on the season. His minutes have also dipped from 27.59 seasonally to 24.6 in the last 10, which reinforces caution on overs.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.2(↓ from 11.9)

APG

2.4(↑ from 2.0)

3PM

2.2(↓ from 2.8)

Key Matchup

Key defender data is available, and Caris LeVert has 11 pts allowed with a 0.7142857142857143 FG% in his tracked minutes, while Zacharie Risacher and Dyson Daniels show lower points allowed in limited minutes. The overall opponent profile is not a shutdown setup, but Atlanta’s 116.39 defensive rating and 0.217 scoring suppression do support caution on Robinson scoring overs.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Duncan Robinson▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	40%	FLIP	17	✗
Duncan Robinson▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	60%		7	✓
Duncan Robinson▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	FLIP	4	✗
Duncan Robinson▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	50%		5	✓
Duncan Robinson▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	80%		0	✓
Duncan Robinson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	—	90%		0	✓
Duncan Robinson▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	100%		0	✓
Duncan Robinson▼	P+R	11.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	FLIP	24	✗
Duncan Robinson▼	P+A	10.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	—	21	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A14UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%▼

R+A5.5UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

P+R14UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Duncan Robinson

Points UNDER 11.5HIGH

This is the clearest edge in the data: multiple books list 11.5 and the value sheet shows UNDER as the best side with a 13.3% edge at BetMGM. His season mean is 11.87, last 10 is 11.2, and last 5 is 9.2, while his minutes have fallen to 24.6 in the last 10, making the under the strongest play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Dyson Daniels	3	12	8	57%	57%
Vít Krejčí	2	9	0	0%	0%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	3	3	4	33%	33%
Jalen Johnson	3	2	2	0%	0%
Zaccharie Risacher	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 11.572%HIGH

Season mean is 11.87, last 10 is 11.2, and last 5 is 9.2, so the scoring profile has drifted below this line. The best value data also points to UNDER 11.5 with a 13.3% edge at BetMGM.

reboundsOVER 2.555%MEDIUM

He averages 2.65 rebounds on the season and 2.6 over the last 10, which sits slightly above the 2.5 line. Confidence stays modest because the standard deviation is 1.55 and rebounds are fairly volatile for him.

assistsUNDER 2.560%MEDIUM

He is at 2.03 APG for the season and 2.7 over the last 10, but the seasonal base still sits below 2.5. The assist prop is high-variance with a 1.49 season standard deviation, so the under is the safer lean.

threesOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages 2.81 made threes per game and 2.5 over the last 10, with a strong home split of 3.35. The line is right around his season average, so this is more of a slight lean than a strong play.

stealsUNDER 0.564%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 0.6, but his last 5 is only 0.4 and last 10 is 0.3, showing a recent drop. With low peripheral volume, the under is the more stable side.

stocksUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 stocks on the season and 0.5 over the last 10, well short of a 1.5 threshold. This is a clear under profile unless defensive events swing heavily in-game.

turnoversUNDER 268%MEDIUM

His recent turnover rates are low at 0.6 over the last 10 and 1.0 over the last 5, so there is little support for a higher turnover total. He is not a high-usage ball-handler, which keeps this under lean intact.

prUNDER 11.561%MEDIUM

His points and rebounds combined season base is 14.52, but the last 5 scoring dip and reduced minutes make this combo less attractive. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is preferred.

paOVER 10.552%MEDIUM

He averages 11.87 points and 2.03 assists on the season, which clears this line comfortably in a pure season-average sense. Still, the recent minutes dip and lower last-5 scoring keep the confidence only moderate.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS