AI Model:

Miles Bridges▼

CHA · PF

PPG

17.5

RPG

5.8

APG

3.3

L5 PPG

17.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.3

17.5

17.2

RPG-1.2

5.8

4.6

APG-1.3

3.3

2.0

SPG+0.4

0.6

1.0

BPG-0.3

0.5

0.2

UNDER 15.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

15.5

DAL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DAL: 11 pts

BOS

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs BOS: 9 pts

MIA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs MIA: 12 pts

PHX

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs PHX: 16 pts

POR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs POR: 11 pts

SAC

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs SAC: 26 pts

SAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAS: 22 pts

MIA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIA: 14 pts

ORL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs ORL: 11 pts

MEM

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs MEM: 13 pts

Over 15.5

Under 15.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 15.5STAKE

64%

REB

UNDER 5.5STAKE

67%

AST

UNDER 3.5STAKE

66%

3PM

UNDER 2

62%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

63%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

65%

OVER 1.5

58%

P+R

UNDER 21.5STAKE

68%

P+A

UNDER 18.5STAKE

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.6

17.1

RPG

4.9

5.4

APG

2.0

3.4

vs SAC (H2H)9 games

PPG

19.8

RPG

5.1

APG

3.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Paolo Banchero	3	24	48%	-3.2%	medium
Scottie Barnes	4	21	73%	+23.1%	medium
Giannis Antetokounmpo	3	18	47%	+1.3%	medium
Dominick Barlow	3	13	33%

Bridges has a path to volume, but recent production says points and combo overs are fragile

Miles Bridges is at 17.5 PPG for the season, but his last 10 have dropped to 14.5 PPG and his trend is clearly down. He has been more productive on the road than at home, and this game is in Charlotte, where he is averaging only 11.6 PPG and 4.9 RPG. The matchup is boosted by opponent absences, but with his recent minutes around 29-30 and a lot of his current prop lines sitting above or near his season form, the safer lean is to the under on the higher numbers.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.2(↓ from 17.5)

RPG

4.6(↓ from 5.8)

APG

2.0(↓ from 3.3)

3PM

1.4(↓ from 2.0)

Key Matchup

The opponent data shows a 121 defensive rating and a pace of 100, which is not an especially easy environment for efficiency. The key defender data is limited, and there is no specific defender matchup data that clearly changes the projection, though opponent absences do create some extra volume opportunity.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Miles Bridges▼	Points	15.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	70%		9	✓
Miles Bridges▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	70%		8	✗
Miles Bridges▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	80%		4	✗
Miles Bridges▼	3PM	2	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	80%		0	✓
Miles Bridges▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	50%		0	✗
Miles Bridges▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	80%		0	✓
Miles Bridges▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	—	80%		0	✓
Miles Bridges▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	40%	FLIP	2	✓
Miles Bridges▼	P+R	21.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	21.5→26.5	17	✓
Miles Bridges▼	P+A	18.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	80%		13	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA21.5OVER16%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

3PM1.5OVER16%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x8/2040%▼

P+R20OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

PTS13.5UNDER33%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 5x11/2055%▼

REB4.5UNDER14%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

3PA4UNDER24%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

P+A18UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 4x8/2040%▼

FTM1.5UNDER29%gbtAvoid (7/20)10/2050%▼

R+A7.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)8/2040%▼

AST2.5UNDER26%gbt_assistsAvoid (6/20)7/2035%▼

FTA2UNDER24%gbtAvoid (6/20)UNDER 3x6/2030%▼

Featured Pick

Miles Bridges

Rebounds UNDER 5.5HIGH

This is the cleanest blend of season and recent form: 5.8 RPG on the season, but only 4.6 over the last 5 and 4.5 over the last 10. His home rebound average is 4.9, so the 5.5 line asks for a result above where he has mostly been producing lately.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
DeMar DeRozan	2	8	15	70%	70%
Precious Achiuwa	1	5	6	67%	67%
Maxime Raynaud	1	1	4	100%	100%
Daeqwon Plowden	2	1	4	67%	67%
Nique Clifford	1	1	5	67%	83%

pointsUNDER 15.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 17.46, but his last 10 are only 14.5 and his home split is just 11.6 PPG. With the prop line at 15.5, the recent trend and home split make the under slightly preferable.

reboundsUNDER 5.567%MEDIUM

He averages 5.8 rebounds on the season but only 4.6 over the last 5 and 4.5 over the last 10. His home rebound average is 4.9, which sits below this line.

assistsUNDER 3.566%MEDIUM

Bridges is at 3.3 APG for the season, but only 2.0 over the last 5 and 2.2 over the last 10. Even with a 3.5 line and some assist upside, the recent drop is enough to favor the under.

threesUNDER 262%MEDIUM

His season average is 2.03 made threes, but the last 5 are down to 1.4 and the last 10 to 1.4 as well. That recent dip makes a 2.0 line a slight under lean.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 steals per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 5, so he is at least clearing this low bar more often recently. The confidence stays modest because steal props are volatile.

blocksUNDER 0.563%MEDIUM

Bridges averages exactly 0.5 blocks on the season, but only 0.2 over the last 5 and 0.2 over the last 10. That recent decline makes the under the better side at a 0.5 line.

stocksUNDER 1.565%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.08 and his recent mean is 0.9, both below 1.5. Since this requires multiple defensive events, the under is the cleaner play.

turnoversOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He is at 1.6 turnovers over the last 20 and 1.6 on the season in that window, while his recent 10-game mark is 1.3. A 1.5 line is playable to the over, but only with moderate confidence.

prUNDER 21.568%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds combination is 23.26 on a simple sum, but his current form has slid to 14.5 PPG and 4.5 RPG over the last 10. With his home scoring well below season pace, the under is the safer angle.

paUNDER 18.567%MEDIUM

He averages 20.8 points plus assists on the season, but only 16.7 across the last 10 using the provided rolling numbers. The recent assist dip is the main reason to avoid the over.

timelineUNDER 15.5 PTS