AI Model:

Maxime Raynaud▲

SAC · C

PPG

11.9

RPG

7.3

APG

1.3

L5 PPG

23.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+11.1

11.9

23.0

RPG+0.7

7.3

8.0

APG+0.7

1.3

2.0

SPG-0.3

0.5

0.2

BPG0.0

0.6

OVER 6.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

6.5

PHX

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHX: 22 pts

NOP

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs NOP: 10 pts

CHI

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CHI: 26 pts

IND

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs IND: 18 pts

CHA

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs CHA: 4 pts

LAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAC: 23 pts

UTA

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs UTA: 8 pts

SAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAS: 32 pts

PHI

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs PHI: 30 pts

BKN

2026-03-22

2026-03-22 vs BKN: 22 pts

Over 6.5

Under 6.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 6.5STAKE

78%

REB

OVER 4.5STAKE

84%

AST

OVER 0.5STAKE

70%

3PM

UNDER 0.5

72%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

76%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

67%

UNDER 2

74%

P+R

OVER 11.5STAKE

79%

P+A

OVER 7.5STAKE

73%

R+A

OVER 5.5STAKE

82%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.9

15.8

RPG

8.7

10.0

APG

2.1

1.5

vs CHA (H2H)1 games

PPG

4.0

RPG

6.0

APG

2.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Donovan Clingan	3	22	95%	+23.3%	medium
Alperen Sengun	4	21	63%	+6.3%	medium
Wendell Carter Jr.	2	16	40%	-16.7%	low
Jay Huff	2	16	43%

Absence-driven role keeps Raynaud in strong fantasy form

Maxime Raynaud’s season line is 11.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG, and 1.3 APG, but his recent role has jumped dramatically with 23.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG, and 2.0 APG over the last 5 games while playing 34.6 MPG. The biggest driver is the long injury list on his team, especially Domantas Sabonis (OUT), which opens up usage, rebounding, and minutes. This matchup also offers a playable scoring environment, but his recent 23.0 PPG is well above his season average, so points are more volatile than the raw hot streak suggests. Rebounds and combo production look sturdier than pure scoring, especially with his minutes staying in the 30s.

Stat Trends

PPG

23.0(↑ from 11.9)

RPG

8.0(↑ from 7.3)

APG

2.0(↑ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

Charlotte’s opponent profile shows a 112.27 defensive rating, 100 pace, and a three-suppression mark of -0.098, while the player’s listed key defenders do not provide meaningful one-on-one data. There is no specific defender matchup data to lean on, so the case is driven more by role, minutes, and overall team defense than a named individual.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Maxime Raynaud▼	Points	6.5	OVER	78%HIGH	2/2	90%		16	✓
Maxime Raynaud▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	84%HIGH	1/2	90%		7	✓
Maxime Raynaud▼	Assists	0.5	OVER	70%HIGH	1/2	100%		0	✗
Maxime Raynaud▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	80%	—	1	✗
Maxime Raynaud▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	76%HIGH	—	60%		0	✗
Maxime Raynaud▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	—	50%		0	✓
Maxime Raynaud▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	60%	FLIP	2	✗
Maxime Raynaud▼	P+R	11.5	OVER	79%HIGH	2/2	90%		23	✓
Maxime Raynaud▼	P+A	7.5	OVER	73%HIGH	2/2	90%		16	✓
Maxime Raynaud▼	R+A	5.5	OVER	82%HIGH	2/2	100%	—	7	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS16.5UNDER18%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%No material changes▼

REB8.5UNDER3%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

PRA27.5UNDER9%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x12/2060%Line moved +1.0▼

P+R26OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)11/2055%▼

P+A19UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

R+A10.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Maxime Raynaud

Rebounds OVER 4.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his 7.3 RPG season average, 8.0 RPG last 5, and 7.37 home mean all sit well above the line. Unlike points, rebounds are less exposed to shooting regression, and his expanded role with Sabonis OUT supports continued volume.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Moussa Diabaté	1	6	0	0%	0%
Brandon Miller	2	2	5	29%	36%
Xavier Tillman	1	2	0	0%	0%
Miles Bridges	1	1	5	50%	63%
LaMelo Ball	1	0	2	33%	33%

pointsOVER 6.578%HIGH

His season mean is 11.86 PPG and he has reached 23.0 PPG over the last 5 games with 34.6 MPG. The 6.5 line is far below both his season production and his current role with Sabonis out.

reboundsOVER 4.584%HIGH

He averages 7.3 RPG on the season and 8.0 RPG over the last 5, with a 7.37 home mean. With extra frontcourt minutes available, 4.5 is a low threshold.

assistsOVER 0.570%HIGH

He averages 1.28 APG on the season and 2.0 APG over the last 5. Even with some variance, a 0.5 line is well beneath his normal distribution.

threesUNDER 0.572%HIGH

His season average is only 0.25 made threes and his last 20 is 0.2. The recent bump to 0.5 is not enough to trust over a 0.5 line given the low baseline volume.

blocksOVER 0.576%HIGH

He averages 0.6 BPG on the season and 1.1 over the last 10, with 0.6 in his last 5. A 0.5 block line fits his rim-protection profile.

stocksUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

Season stocks average is 1.03 and last 10 is 1.5, but that recent level is a spike rather than his norm. With combined variance still notable, the under is safer at a 1.5 line.

turnoversUNDER 274%HIGH

He is around 1.6 to 2.2 turnovers in recent windows, but the season trend is not consistently high enough to force over 2.0. The current line projection lands near his typical range, making the under slightly preferable.

prOVER 11.579%HIGH

His season PR profile is 11.9 PPG and 7.3 RPG, and recent form has lifted both categories. With the low line and strong minute load, the over is supported even accounting for regression.

paOVER 7.573%HIGH

He averages 1.3 APG and 11.9 PPG, while the last 5 has him at 23.0 PPG and 2.0 APG. The combination of scoring and passing makes 7.5 reachable.

raOVER 5.582%HIGH

He averages 7.3 RPG and 1.3 APG on the season, so this line sits below his normal rebounding output alone. The minutes increase from 25.8 season MPG to 33.2 recent MPG further strengthens the over.

timelineOVER 6.5 PTS