AI Model:

LaMelo Ball—

CHA · PG

PPG

19.7

RPG

4.8

APG

7.1

L5 PPG

25.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.5

19.7

25.2

RPG+0.2

4.8

5.0

APG-1.3

7.1

5.8

SPG+1.0

1.2

2.2

BPG+0.4

0.2

0.6

UNDER 20.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

20.5

DAL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DAL: 15 pts

BOS

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs BOS: 18 pts

MIA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs MIA: 21 pts

PHX

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs PHX: 22 pts

POR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs POR: 14 pts

SAC

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs SAC: 30 pts

SAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAS: 17 pts

MIA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIA: 30 pts

ORL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs ORL: 20 pts

MEM

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs MEM: 29 pts

Over 20.5

Under 20.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 20.5STAKE

67%

REB

OVER 4.5STAKE

58%

AST

OVER 6.5STAKE

64%

3PM

OVER 3.5STAKE

60%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

61%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

OVER 2

63%

PRA

UNDER 31.6

55%

P+A

OVER 26.8

59%

R+A

OVER 11.9

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.3

21.3

RPG

4.3

5.0

APG

6.7

5.6

vs SAC (H2H)6 games

PPG

21.7

RPG

4.7

APG

9.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Josh Hart	3	15	80%	+19.5%	medium
Immanuel Quickley	4	13	68%	+14.0%	medium
Davion Mitchell	3	11	83%	+26.2%	medium
Ben Sheppard	4	11	63%

LaMelo’s playmaking looks strong, but points volume is priced tightly

LaMelo Ball’s season line sits at 19.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 7.1 APG across 60 games, while his last 20 show a steadier 20.8 PPG and 6.2 APG. He has upside in this matchup because his historical production vs this opponent is 21.7 PPG and 9.17 APG over 6 games, and the opponent is missing multiple rotation pieces including Domantas Sabonis and Russell Westbrook. The main caution is that his recent scoring spike to 25.2 PPG over the last 5 is above season norm, so regression risk is real on points, especially on a line like 20.5. Assist volume remains the cleanest path given the matchup and his opponent history.

Stat Trends

PPG

25.2(↑ from 19.7)

APG

5.8(↓ from 7.1)

RPG

5.0(→ from 4.8)

Key Matchup

The opponent has a 121 defensive rating and 100 pace, with no specific defender matchup data provided. The opponent is also missing Domantas Sabonis, Drew Eubanks, Nique Clifford, Precious Achiuwa, and Russell Westbrook, which should improve LaMelo’s environment and assist chances.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
LaMelo Ball▼	Points	20.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		20	✓
LaMelo Ball▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		6	✓
LaMelo Ball▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	FLIP	8	✓
LaMelo Ball▼	3PM	3.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	80%		6	✓
LaMelo Ball▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	80%		2	✓
LaMelo Ball▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%		2	✓
LaMelo Ball▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	70%	2→2.5	0	✗
LaMelo Ball▼	PRA	31.6	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	—	34	✗
LaMelo Ball▼	P+A	26.8	OVER	59%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	FLIP	28	✓
LaMelo Ball▼	R+A	11.9	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	FLIP	14	✓

ML Scout Analysis

STL0.5OVER20%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x16/2080%+16.0% edge▼

PTS19.5UNDER50%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)11/2055%▼

REB4.5UNDER21%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

AST6.5UNDER22%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

3PM4.5UNDER10%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x7/2035%▼

3PA12UNDER31%gbtAvoid (7/20)7/2035%▼

PRA31.5UNDER18%gbt_praAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

P+R25.5UNDER0%gbt_prAvoid (7/20)8/2040%▼

P+A27.5UNDER0%gbt_paAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

FTM1.5UNDER16%gbtAvoid (6/20)10/2050%▼

R+A11.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (6/20)9/2045%▼

FTA2UNDER18%gbtAvoid (5/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

LaMelo Ball

Assists OVER 6.5MEDIUM

This is supported by his 7.1 APG season average and 9.17 APG in 6 games vs this opponent. Even with the recent 5.8 APG dip, the combination of opponent absences and his historical playmaking output makes this the cleanest angle.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Killian Hayes	1	9	3	25%	38%
Devin Carter	1	3	0	0%	0%
Daeqwon Plowden	2	3	0	0%	0%
Doug McDermott	2	1	3	100%	150%
DeMar DeRozan	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 20.567%MEDIUM

His season mean is 19.73 PPG and the most relevant longer sample, last 20, is 20.8 PPG, which is closer to the line than the last-5 surge. With the recent 25.2 PPG pace sitting well above season average, regression risk is enough to lean under on a tight number.

reboundsOVER 4.558%MEDIUM

He averages 4.8 rebounds on the season and 5.0 over the last 5, with 5.06 in away games and 4.5 in home games. The line is right around his baseline, so the over is playable but not high confidence.

assistsOVER 6.564%MEDIUM

Season assists are 7.1 APG and his vs-opponent mark is 9.17 APG across 6 games, both above 6.5. Even though the last 5 dipped to 5.8, the broader profile and matchup history still support the over.

threesOVER 3.560%MEDIUM

He averages 3.6 made threes per game on the season and 4.3 over the last 10, with 3.75 in away games. The volume is stable enough to justify the over on a modest line.

stealsOVER 0.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 steals on the season and 1.4 over the last 20, so a 0.5 line is well below his baseline. Recent form is even stronger at 2.2 steals over the last 5.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.47 and recent form has been 2.2 over the last 10. This is close to the median outcome, so the over is viable but with only medium confidence.

turnoversOVER 263%MEDIUM

He averages 2.2 turnovers on the last 20 and 2.7 over the last 10, which supports a 2.0 line going over. His high-usage playmaking profile keeps this in range even if the scoring dips.

praUNDER 31.655%MEDIUM

Using season means, his PRA projects to 31.6, but combo props carry added variance and his last-5 scoring spike may not fully hold. With the line effectively sitting near fair value, the under is the safer lean.

paOVER 26.859%MEDIUM

Season points plus assists equal 26.8, and his vs-opponent playmaking history is strong at 9.17 APG. That makes the over viable, though the assist dip in the last 5 keeps confidence moderate.

raOVER 11.955%MEDIUM

Season rebounds plus assists total 11.9, and he has reached 12+ in several recent outings. Still, combo variance is meaningful, so this stays a medium-confidence over.

timelineUNDER 20.5 PTS