AI Model:

Grant Williams▼

CHA · PF

PPG

7.1

RPG

3.9

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

4.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.7

7.1

4.4

RPG-1.3

3.9

2.6

APG-0.9

1.7

0.8

SPG0.0

0.4

BPG+0.4

0.4

0.8

UNDER 7 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

IND

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs IND: 9 pts

POR

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs POR: 0 pts

DAL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs DAL: 12 pts

MIA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs MIA: 12 pts

PHX

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs PHX: 10 pts

POR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs POR: 3 pts

SAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAS: 6 pts

MIA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs MIA: 8 pts

ORL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs ORL: 0 pts

MEM

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs MEM: 5 pts

Over 7

Under 7

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 7

72%

REB

UNDER 4

68%

AST

OVER 1.5

55%

3PM

UNDER 1.5

63%

STL

UNDER 0.5

60%

BLK

OVER 0.5

54%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

64%

OVER 1

58%

PRA

UNDER 12.5

61%

P+A

UNDER 8.5

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.6

6.6

RPG

4.9

3.0

APG

2.2

1.7

vs SAC (H2H)8 games

PPG

8.1

RPG

3.6

APG

2.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Alperen Sengun	2	8	13%	-30.3%	low
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	2	5	100%	+40.5%	low
Onyeka Okongwu	2	5	50%	-2.8%	low
Bam Adebayo	1	4	0%

Grant Williams carries a modest scoring profile with under-friendly recent form

Grant Williams is sitting at 7.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG, and 1.7 APG on the season while playing 19.5 MPG, but his last 5 have dipped to 4.4 PPG and 2.6 RPG. The home split is a bit better than his overall line at 8.6 PPG and 4.9 RPG, and the matchup environment is boosted by multiple Kings absences, including Sabonis and Westbrook. Still, his recent minutes and production trend down, and his season scoring base is low enough that overs need strong efficiency to cash. This looks more like a conservative role-player spot than a ceiling game.

Stat Trends

PPG

4.4(↓ from 7.1)

RPG

2.6(↓ from 3.9)

APG

0.8(↓ from 1.7)

3PM

0.8(↓ from 1.4)

Key Matchup

The matchup data shows a team defense profile with a 121 defensive rating allowed, pace of 100, and no specific defender matchup data beyond Malik Monk listed with just 3.9 minutes. Opponent absences are significant, including Domantas Sabonis, Drew Eubanks, Nique Clifford, Precious Achiuwa, and Russell Westbrook, which improves the environment but does not fully erase Grant Williams' recent dip in usage and production.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Grant Williams▼	Points	7	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	50%		0	✓
Grant Williams▼	Rebounds	4	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	90%		3	✓
Grant Williams▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	FLIP	2	✓
Grant Williams▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	FLIP	0	✓
Grant Williams▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%		0	✓
Grant Williams▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	20%	FLIP	1	✓
Grant Williams▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	80%		1	✓
Grant Williams▼	Turnovers	1	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	20%	1→1.5	0	✗
Grant Williams▼	PRA	12.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%		5	✓
Grant Williams▼	P+A	8.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	50%		2	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS6.5UNDER6%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 4x12/2060%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Line moved +1.0; Value edge shifted -0.267▼

R+A6UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)7/2035%▼

P+R11.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 4x11/2055%▼

P+A9.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)11/2055%▼

REB3.5UNDER12%logisticAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x11/2055%No material changes▼

Featured Pick

Grant Williams

Points UNDER 7.0HIGH

His season scoring average is 7.1, but the last 5 are only 4.4 and his last 10 sit at 6.5, both below this type of line. With recent minutes at 18.2 MPG and a clear downtrend, the under is the most stable angle.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	FG%	eFG%
DeMar DeRozan	1	3	0%	0%
Devin Carter	1	1	0%	0%
Daeqwon Plowden	1	1	0%	0%
Doug McDermott	1	0	0%	0%
Dylan Cardwell	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 772%HIGH

His season mean is 7.1 PPG, but his last 5 are only 4.4 and his recent minutes have been 18.2 MPG. With scoring form trending down and only a modest home lift to 8.6 PPG, the under is the cleaner side.

reboundsUNDER 468%MEDIUM

He averages 3.9 RPG on the season and just 2.6 RPG over the last 5. Even with a home split of 4.9 RPG, the recent rebound trend is too soft to trust the over.

assistsOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

His season assist mean is 1.7 and his last 10 are 1.6, which is close enough to support a modest over if minutes hold near 19-20. The line would need to stay low because his recent 5-game output has slipped to 0.8 APG.

threesUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.41 made threes per game, but the last 5 are down to 0.8 with recent shot volume softening. A 1.5 line is slightly above his season rate, making the under the safer side.

stealsUNDER 0.560%MEDIUM

His season steals average is only 0.4, so he is below the meaningful-volume threshold for a reliable over. The last 5 are also just 0.4, keeping this under lean intact.

blocksOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.4 blocks on the season but has 0.8 over the last 5 and 0.5 over the last 10. That recent spike is enough to justify a small over lean at a 0.5 line.

stocksUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.81 and his recent form is around 1.0, which is still below a 1.5 threshold. This combo category is volatile, so the under is preferable.

turnoversOVER 158%MEDIUM

He is at 1.1 turnovers per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 10, so the baseline is already around this number. A 1.0 line is close enough to support a slight over lean.

praUNDER 12.561%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 12.7, but the last 5 trend down to about 7.8 combined points-rebounds-assists. Given the historical caution on combo props and his recent decline, the under is favored.

paUNDER 8.563%MEDIUM

He combines for 8.8 points and assists on the season, but the last 5 fall to 5.2 when those categories are blended. The downward trend makes the under the better play.

timelineUNDER 7 PTS