AI Model:

Trey Murphy III▲

NOP · SG

PPG

21.8

RPG

5.7

APG

3.8

L5 PPG

18.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.6

21.8

18.2

RPG+0.5

5.7

6.2

APG+0.4

3.8

4.2

SPG-0.1

1.5

1.4

BPG+0.5

0.3

0.8

OVER 21.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

21.5

LAL

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs LAL: 21 pts

SAC

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs SAC: 21 pts

PHX

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs PHX: 22 pts

WAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs WAS: 24 pts

TOR

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs TOR: 28 pts

HOU

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs HOU: 14 pts

DAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs DAL: 17 pts

LAC

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAC: 23 pts

LAC

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs LAC: 27 pts

CLE

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs CLE: 10 pts

Over 21.5

Under 21.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 21.5STAKE

58%

REB

OVER 5.5STAKE

56%

AST

OVER 3.5STAKE

55%

3PM

UNDER 3.5

57%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

60%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

59%

OVER 2

55%

PRA

OVER 31.3

52%

P+A

OVER 25.5STAKE

53%

P+R

OVER 26.5STAKE

54%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.7

21.5

RPG

4.9

5.3

APG

4.0

4.8

vs NYK (H2H)7 games

PPG

19.0

RPG

4.1

APG

2.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaylen Wells	4	15	58%	+3.0%	medium
Devin Vassell	4	14	35%	-23.9%	medium
Jabari Smith Jr.	3	14	73%	+7.5%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	3	14	44%

Trey Murphy III brings a steady scoring floor with multiple paths to value

Murphy is averaging 21.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, and 3.8 APG on 35.5 MPG this season, and his last-10 line of 20.7/6.0/4.0 shows the same all-around workload. His recent scoring has dipped to 18.2 PPG over the last 5, but that sits close enough to his season baseline that the role still looks intact rather than collapsing. The matchup is not a huge pace boost, but New York’s defense context is manageable, and the opponent absences plus Murphy’s 35+ minute role keep his volume secure. Because his season average is a bit stronger than the recent dip, the safer angle leans to moderate overs on volume stats with caution on higher-variance combo props.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.2(↓ from 21.8)

RPG

6.2(↑ from 5.7)

APG

4.2(↑ from 3.8)

STL+BLK

2.2(↑ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

New York’s opponent defense data shows a 110.38 defensive rating, 100 pace, and -1.131 scoring suppression, so this is not a runaway scoring environment. The key defender data is limited to the listed matchups, and no specific defender matchup data beyond the provided names should be assumed.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Trey Murphy III▼	Points	21.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	FLIP	16	✗
Trey Murphy III▼	Rebounds	5.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	70%		6	✓
Trey Murphy III▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	70%		2	✗
Trey Murphy III▼	3PM	3.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	FLIP	4	✗
Trey Murphy III▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	40%		1	✓
Trey Murphy III▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	50%		0	✗
Trey Murphy III▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	—	70%	FLIP	1	✗
Trey Murphy III▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	40%		0	✗
Trey Murphy III▼	PRA	31.3	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	FLIP	24	✗
Trey Murphy III▼	P+A	25.5	OVER	53%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	FLIP	18	✗
Trey Murphy III▼	P+R	26.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	FLIP	22	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R27OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%▼

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (13/20)11/2055%▼

P+A25.5UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Trey Murphy III

Rebounds OVER 5.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest balance of role and price: Murphy is at 5.7 RPG for the season, 6.0 over the last 10, and 6.2 over the last 5 while logging 35.5 MPG. The line is right at his established baseline, and unlike points, rebounds are less exposed to his recent scoring fluctuation.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Brunson	2	9	14	45%	55%
Mikal Bridges	2	7	2	25%	25%
Jordan Clarkson	2	3	8	100%	100%
Josh Hart	1	3	3	100%	100%
Miles McBride	1	1	5	100%	125%

pointsOVER 21.558%MEDIUM

Murphy’s season mean is 21.8 PPG and he’s at 20.7 over the last 10 with 35.5 MPG unchanged. The recent 18.2 last-5 is a bit soft, but the 21.5 line is still slightly below his season production.

reboundsOVER 5.556%MEDIUM

He averages 5.7 RPG on the season, 6.0 over the last 10, and 6.2 over the last 5. The 5.5 line is right around his baseline, with recent form supporting a small lean over.

assistsOVER 3.555%MEDIUM

Murphy’s season mark is 3.84 APG and he’s at 4.0 over the last 10 and 4.2 over the last 5. The line sits just under his typical production, though the standard deviation keeps confidence moderate.

threesUNDER 3.557%MEDIUM

His season mean is 3.3 made threes and recent mean is 3.6, but the prop is set above the season average. With a season std of 2.04, this remains volatile and the under is the more conservative lean.

stealsUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.5 steals on the season, but the 1.5 line is a tough threshold and defensive event props are naturally volatile. Even with recent strong stocks, the under is the safer side given the pricing.

blocksOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

Murphy’s season block rate is 0.3, but he has 0.8 BPG over the last 5 and 0.6 over the last 10. The recent uptick makes 0.5 playable, though the season baseline keeps confidence only modest.

stocksOVER 1.559%MEDIUM

He averages 1.89 stocks for the season and 2.3 over the last 10, with 2.2 over the last 5. That gives him a solid path over 1.5 despite the natural volatility in this market.

turnoversOVER 255%MEDIUM

His recent turnover rate has been 1.8 over the last 10 and 2.2 over the last 5, which suggests the ball is in his hands enough to create miscues. The projected 2.0 line is fair, but the over is slightly more attractive.

praOVER 31.352%MEDIUM

Using his season averages, Murphy projects to 31.3 PRA (21.8 points + 5.7 rebounds + 3.8 assists). Combo props are higher variance, but his multi-category workload still gives this a workable over lean.

paOVER 25.553%MEDIUM

Murphy combines for 25.6 points and assists on season averages, essentially matching the line. His last-10 scoring/playmaking remains stable enough to support a slight over lean.

prOVER 26.554%MEDIUM

He averages 27.5 points plus rebounds on the season, and his last-10 figure is 26.7 even after the recent scoring dip. This is one of the cleaner combo angles, though still subject to variance.

timelineOVER 21.5 PTS