Herro’s scoring floor looks solid, but the assist and rebound angles are the cleaner leans

His season mean is 21.5 and last 5 is 20.2, so there is no strong scoring edge at this number. The matchup environment also points to some suppression, making the under slightly preferable versus a flat market.

Herro’s season rebound mean is 5.0 and his last 20 is exactly 5.0, while the 5.5 line sits above both. Even with last 5 at 6.8, the broader sample and market pricing lean under.

He averages 3.9 APG on the season and 4.8 over the last 10, but the season baseline is still below 4.5. With no specific defender matchup data and only moderate assist volume, the under remains the safer side.

He averages 2.5 made threes per game on the season and 3.0 over the last 10, with 2.4 over the last 20. The line is right at his production level, so the over is playable but not a high-confidence spot.

His season steal average is 0.8, but the last 5 and last 10 are both 0.6, showing some recent dip. With a 0.95 season standard deviation in stocks, this is a volatile category and the under is the more conservative lean.

Herro averages just 0.3 blocks per game on the season and 0.2 over the last 5 and last 10. That is well below a 0.5 line, making the under the clearest play.

He combines for 1.1 stocks per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, which is below a 1.5 threshold. The recent trend does not support an over on this combined defensive prop.

Herro is at 2.2 turnovers per game over the last 5 and 2.4 over the last 10, both above a 2.0 baseline. With his ball-handling role, this is a modest over lean.

His season PRA is 30.4 using 21.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.9 assists, which is basically aligned with the line. Because combo props carry higher variance and the model leans conservative, the under is the slight edge.

Herro’s season points plus assists total is 25.4, essentially matching the line but not clearing it. Given the line sits just above his season baseline, the under is preferred.