AI Model:

Stephon Castle▼

SAS · SG

PPG

16.4

RPG

5.0

APG

7.1

L5 PPG

17.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.4

16.4

17.8

RPG+2.0

5.0

7.0

APG+2.1

7.1

9.2

SPG-0.8

1.2

0.4

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

16.5

NYK

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs NYK: 13 pts

PHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHI: 15 pts

DET

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DET: 11 pts

LAC

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAC: 6 pts

HOU

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs HOU: 23 pts

BOS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BOS: 18 pts

DEN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DEN: 30 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 15 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 23 pts

SAC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAC: 3 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

AST

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

52%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

72%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

70%

P+A

UNDER 24.5FANDUEL

64%

PRA

UNDER 29.5FANDUEL

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.5

12.9

RPG

6.4

3.7

APG

7.4

7.2

vs MIA (H2H)3 games

PPG

14.0

RPG

5.3

APG

5.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Keyonte George	3	22	59%	-2.0%	medium
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	4	21	34%	-15.9%	medium
Luka Dončić	3	20	43%	-9.4%	medium
Cade Cunningham	2	17	30%

Castle’s playmaking is strong, but the points market looks a bit high

Stephon Castle is averaging 16.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 7.1 APG on the season, with his last 5 bumping up to 17.8 points and 9.2 assists. However, his trend is listed as down, and his last 10 scoring average is only 15.7 PPG, below the current points lines at 16.5 and 15.5. The matchup context is neutral-to-slightly suppressive for scoring: Miami’s scoring suppression is 0.395, while Castle’s own opponent history against Miami is 14.0 PPG and 5.0 APG across 3 games. With no major teammate usage note beyond Harrison Ingram being out and a questionable hip designation for Castle himself, the safer lean is to the under on points and a modest stance on assists.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.8(↑ from 16.4)

RPG

7.0(↑ from 5.0)

APG

9.2(↑ from 7.1)

Key Matchup

Miami’s opponent profile shows a 117.07 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of 0.395, which leans against easy point production. For this game, there is no specific defender matchup data to target, so the read is based on the team-level numbers and Castle’s own history against Miami.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Stephon Castle▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	2/2	60%	19	✗
Stephon Castle▼	Assists	7.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	6	✓
Stephon Castle▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	7	✗
Stephon Castle▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	2	✓
Stephon Castle▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	90%	2	✗
Stephon Castle▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	90%	2	✗
Stephon Castle▼	P+A	24.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	25	✗
Stephon Castle▼	PRA	29.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	32	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS18UNDER15%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

PRA31.5OVER2%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

3PA4UNDER38%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x4/2020%▼

P+R22.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

P+A25.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

REB6OVER14%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

FTM3.5UNDER13%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

R+A14UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

AST9OVER2%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

FTA4UNDER4%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

3PM1UNDER2%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

Featured Pick

Stephon Castle

Points UNDER 16.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number on the board relative to his season mean of 16.4 PPG and last 10 average of 15.7 PPG. The value data also supports the under, with DraftKings showing a 13.9% edge on the 16.5 line and multiple books favoring the same side.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Davion Mitchell	2	5	5	29%	36%
Tyler Herro	1	5	11	75%	88%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	2	3	4	50%	50%
Pelle Larsson	2	2	1	0%	0%
Andrew Wiggins	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 16.578%HIGH

Season scoring is 16.4 PPG and his last 10 is 15.7 PPG, both sitting under this number. The value data also shows strong under support at 16.5 with a 13.9% edge on DraftKings.

assistsUNDER 7.560%MEDIUM

He averages 7.1 APG on the season and 8.5 over the last 10, but the prop is priced above his season mean and his Miami history is 5.0 APG in 3 games. The recent spike is real, but the season baseline still points slightly under.

reboundsUNDER 5.555%MEDIUM

Castle’s season rebounding is 5.0 RPG and his last 10 is 5.5 RPG, making this a tight number with no strong edge. Given the variance and the over-bias warning, the under is the more conservative side.

threesOVER 1.552%MEDIUM

He averages 1.12 threes per game for the season and 1.5 over the last 5, so the volume is at least enough to challenge 1.5. The recent uptick makes the over playable, but confidence stays modest because the season mean is still only 1.12.

stealsUNDER 1.572%HIGH

Castle’s season steals average is 1.2, but his last 10 is only 0.6 and his last 5 is 0.4. That recent drop makes 1.5 too high for an over.

stocksUNDER 1.570%HIGH

His season stocks are 1.52, but recent production has fallen to 0.8 over the last 10 and 0.6 over the last 5. The recent form is weaker than the season average, so the under is the better side at a projected 1.5 line.

paUNDER 24.564%MEDIUM

He averages 23.5 points plus assists using season means (16.4 + 7.1), which sits just under the line. Combo props carry extra variance, so this is a conservative under lean.

praUNDER 29.561%MEDIUM

Castle’s season PRA from the provided means is 28.5, below 29.5, and combo props are historically lower-hit bets. His recent usage is solid, but the baseline still favors the under.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS