AI Model:

Norman Powell▲

MIA · SF

PPG

22.4

RPG

3.7

APG

2.6

L5 PPG

17.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-5.2

22.4

17.2

RPG-0.1

3.7

3.6

APG-0.4

2.6

2.2

SPG-0.6

1.2

0.6

BPG+0.2

0.2

0.4

OVER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

18.5

CHI

2026-01-29

2026-01-29 vs CHI: 21 pts

BOS

2026-02-06

2026-02-06 vs BOS: 24 pts

WAS

2026-02-08

2026-02-08 vs WAS: 21 pts

ATL

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs ATL: 15 pts

MEM

2026-02-21

2026-02-21 vs MEM: 25 pts

MIL

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs MIL: 26 pts

PHI

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs PHI: 3 pts

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 20 pts

CHA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CHA: 17 pts

LAL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs LAL: 20 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 18.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

REB

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

67%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

3PM

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

62%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

71%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

56%

UNDER 2.5

60%

PRA

OVER 24.5FANDUEL

54%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

22.7

17.4

RPG

2.7

3.9

APG

3.1

2.2

vs SAS (H2H)15 games

PPG

17.5

RPG

3.6

APG

1.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Anthony Black	4	16	50%	+2.7%	medium
Mikal Bridges	4	14	100%	+27.7%	medium
Landry Shamet	3	13	70%	+2.7%	medium
Jalen Suggs	5	13	56%

Powell’s scoring outlook is solid, but the recent dip and calf tag add caution

Norman Powell is still producing a strong season line at 22.4 PPG, but his last 5 has fallen to 17.2 PPG with minutes down to 27.0 from 30.2 on the season. The matchup is workable, and his home split is better than his away split, with 22.7 PPG at home versus 17.4 away, while the opponent profile shows no obvious extreme slowdown beyond a modest scoring suppression. The biggest flags are the Questionable injury status and the fact that his recent scoring is 20%+ below his season average, which leans us toward a more conservative projection.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.2(↓ from 22.4)

APG

2.2(↓ from 2.6)

RPG

3.6(→ from 3.7)

3PM

(→ from 2.8)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available. The opponent context is neutral-to-slightly favorable for scoring, but the provided defensive numbers do not point to a major red flag or major boost.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Norman Powell▼	Points	18.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	21	✓
Norman Powell▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	4	✗
Norman Powell▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	2	✗
Norman Powell▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	4	✓
Norman Powell▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	—	70%	0	✓
Norman Powell▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Norman Powell▼	Turnovers	2.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%	4	✗
Norman Powell▼	PRA	24.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	27	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA23.5OVER0%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)15/2075%+22.9% edge▼

PTS17.5OVER6%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)14/2070%+17.6% edge▼

P+R23OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A22OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

REB3.5UNDER12%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

3PA7UNDER35%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

3PM2.5UNDER15%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

FTM4UNDER21%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

FTA5UNDER6%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

R+A6UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x6/2030%▼

AST2.5UNDER29%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Norman Powell

Points OVER 18.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest number relative to his season scoring baseline of 22.4 PPG and home mark of 22.7 PPG. The recent 17.2 PPG slide and calf question mark prevent a high-confidence call, but the price is still attractive versus his typical production.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Harrison Barnes	1	4	3	50%	75%
Devin Vassell	1	2	0	0%	0%
Dylan Harper	1	1	3	50%	75%
Keldon Johnson	1	1	4	100%	100%
De'Aaron Fox	1	1	2	0%	0%

pointsOVER 18.564%MEDIUM

He averages 22.4 PPG on the season and 22.7 PPG at home, which is well above 18.5. The recent 17.2 PPG dip and Questionable tag keep the confidence moderate rather than high.

reboundsUNDER 3.567%MEDIUM

His season rebound average is 3.7, but his recent mean is just 3.0 and his home mean is 2.7. That puts 3.5 right at a slight under lean with limited upside.

assistsOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

Powell’s season average is 2.6 APG and his home split is 3.1 APG, so 2.5 is a workable over. The 2.2 APG over the last 5 lowers confidence, so this stays a smaller edge.

threesOVER 2.562%MEDIUM

He averages 2.78 threes per game on the season and 2.67 at home, both above 2.5. Recent volume is lower at 2.2 over the last 5, but the season baseline still supports the over.

stealsUNDER 1.571%HIGH

His season average is 1.2 steals and the last 5 is only 0.6, so 1.5 is a tough ask. Even with respectable stock numbers overall, this line is above his typical output.

stocksOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

He combines 1.2 steals and 0.2 blocks on the season for 1.4 stocks, and his last 10 stocks are 1.6. This is close enough to the threshold to justify a cautious over lean if the book offers it.

turnoversUNDER 2.560%MEDIUM

He averages 2.1 turnovers on the season and 2.1 over the last 10, so 2.5 is a reasonable under lean. The profile is volatile, but not enough to project a clear over.

praOVER 24.554%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 28.7 using 22.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.6 assists, which clears 24.5. The combo format adds variance, and the recent minutes/scoring dip keeps confidence modest.

timelineOVER 18.5 PTS