AI Model:

Devin Vassell—

SAS · SF

PPG

14.3

RPG

3.8

APG

2.5

L5 PPG

14.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.3

14.3

14.6

RPG-1.2

3.8

2.6

APG+0.3

2.5

2.8

SPG0.0

0.8

BPG-0.4

0.4

0.0

UNDER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

13.5

NYK

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs NYK: 18 pts

PHI

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHI: 22 pts

DET

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DET: 8 pts

LAC

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAC: 11 pts

HOU

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs HOU: 5 pts

BOS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BOS: 14 pts

DEN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DEN: 18 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 9 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 20 pts

PHX

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs PHX: 12 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 13.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

57%

P+R

UNDER 17.5FANDUEL

59%

P+A

UNDER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.8

16.9

RPG

3.1

4.7

APG

2.7

2.8

vs MIA (H2H)11 games

PPG

15.2

RPG

3.8

APG

2.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	3	18	58%	+6.2%	medium
Devin Booker	4	13	58%	+6.2%	medium
Christian Braun	2	12	38%	-18.8%	low
Derrick Jones Jr.	3	12	67%

Vassell’s scoring is capped by a tough road spot, with better value on the under

Devin Vassell is coming in with stable production, averaging 14.3 PPG, 3.8 RPG, and 2.5 APG on the season, with recent numbers near that baseline at 14.6/2.6/2.8 over the last 5. His home split is notably weaker than his away form, but this game is in Miami and the opponent profile leans toward lower scoring support, with a 117.07 defensive rating and 0.395 scoring suppression. He also carries a questionable tag with right hamstring tightness, which adds some downside to volume and minutes. The strongest lean from the available pricing is the points under 13.5, while threes remains the better upside market if you want a plus-EV angle.

Stat Trends

PPG

14.6(→ from 14.3)

RPG

2.6(↓ from 3.8)

APG

2.8(↑ from 2.5)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so no specific defender matchup data. Miami’s team context shows a 117.07 defensive rating, pace of 100, and 0.395 scoring suppression, which points toward a controlled scoring environment.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Devin Vassell▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	6	✓
Devin Vassell▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	4	✗
Devin Vassell▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	1	✗
Devin Vassell▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	2	✓
Devin Vassell▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Devin Vassell▼	P+R	17.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	8	✓
Devin Vassell▼	P+A	16.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	10	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A16.5UNDER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%▼

R+A7.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

P+R18OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Devin Vassell

Points UNDER 13.5MEDIUM

This is supported by both the season mean of 14.25 and the market tone, with multiple books shading to the under at 13.5. His questionable right hamstring tightness adds additional downside, making this the most reliable side despite the line sitting close to his baseline.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Andrew Wiggins	2	8	13	67%	72%
Simone Fontecchio	1	3	6	67%	100%
Davion Mitchell	2	3	0	0%	0%
Pelle Larsson	2	2	0	0%	0%
Norman Powell	1	1	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 13.566%MEDIUM

Season mean is 14.25, but the model and pricing both lean under, with the best available value_props showing UNDER at 13.5 on multiple books. His questionable hamstring status also adds risk to reaching a mid-teens scoring outcome.

assistsUNDER 2.560%MEDIUM

Season assist mean is 2.46 and the value data shows a 5.5% edge on the UNDER at 2.5. Recent form is only 2.7 over the last 5, so this is more of a hold-than-breakout passing spot.

threesOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

He averages 2.52 threes season-long and 2.5 over the last 5, and the value_props list a 6.8% edge on the OVER at 2.5. This is his best positive-EV angle, though the edge is still modest and confidence should stay controlled.

reboundsUNDER 3.555%MEDIUM

He is at 3.82 RPG on the season and 3.7 over the last 10, but the available market pricing does not create a strong over case. With home rebounds at 3.1 and a questionable tag, the under is the safer side.

stocksUNDER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.21 and the recent mean is 1.1, which sits below a 1.5 threshold. Variance is meaningful here, but the baseline still favors staying under.

prUNDER 17.559%MEDIUM

Season points plus rebounds is 18.07, but the mix is vulnerable because rebounds have trended below season level recently and scoring is not a strong edge. Combo props carry extra variance, so this is a cautious under.

paUNDER 16.562%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists is 16.71, and the assist market also leans under. Given the over bias warning and the questionable injury status, under 16.5 is the cleaner call.

timelineUNDER 13.5 PTS