AI Model:

De'Aaron Fox—

SAS · PG

PPG

18.8

RPG

3.8

APG

6.3

L5 PPG

17.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.4

18.8

17.4

RPG+1.0

3.8

4.8

APG-1.1

6.3

5.2

SPG-0.2

1.2

1.0

BPG+0.3

0.3

0.6

UNDER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

18.5

DET

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DET: 29 pts

LAC

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAC: 19 pts

HOU

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs HOU: 20 pts

BOS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs BOS: 25 pts

DEN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DEN: 27 pts

CHA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs CHA: 17 pts

LAC

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAC: 18 pts

SAC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAC: 15 pts

PHX

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs PHX: 23 pts

IND

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs IND: 14 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 18.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

REB

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

AST

UNDER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

66%

P+R

UNDER 21.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

P+A

UNDER 24.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.2

14.4

RPG

3.5

3.1

APG

6.5

5.9

vs MIA (H2H)7 games

PPG

21.4

RPG

6.9

APG

5.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Williams	4	18	55%	-2.9%	medium
Vince Williams Jr.	3	14	50%	-10.9%	medium
Collin Gillespie	3	13	61%	-4.0%	medium
Anthony Edwards	3	12	67%

Fox's scoring ceiling is capped, but rebounds and threes offer the best value

De'Aaron Fox comes in with a season line of 18.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG, and 6.3 APG, while his last-5 scoring has dipped to 17.4 PPG on 29.0 MPG. His recent point production has been inconsistent, and the prop market is pricing his points around 18.5, which sits above his season mean and near his lower recent range. The best path here is to lean on the stronger value signals: rebounds are backed by a 3.8 season average and a 3.5 line with a large projected edge, while threes remain a playable over given his 1.84 season makes and 1.9 over the last 10. Opponent context is mixed, with his career vs this opponent showing 21.43 PPG and 35.43 MPG, but the current data still points to a more conservative scoring projection.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.4(↓ from 18.8)

RPG

4.8(↑ from 3.8)

APG

5.2(↓ from 6.3)

Key Matchup

Tyler Herro is listed as a key defender with 10.3 minutes, 14 points allowed, and a 0.3157894736842105 opponent field goal percentage. The broader opponent context shows a 117.07 defensive rating and 0.395 scoring suppression, so the matchup leans modestly toward a tougher scoring environment.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
De'Aaron Fox▼	Points	18.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	14	✓
De'Aaron Fox▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	70%HIGH	2/2	40%	3	✗
De'Aaron Fox▼	Assists	6.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	6	✓
De'Aaron Fox▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	1	✗
De'Aaron Fox▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	1	✓
De'Aaron Fox▼	P+R	21.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	17	✓
De'Aaron Fox▼	P+A	24.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	20	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA25UNDER8%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

PTS14.5UNDER5%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

3PA4UNDER40%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A22.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

AST6UNDER23%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 7x6/2030%▼

P+R20UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

STL1UNDER38%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

FTM1UNDER24%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER15%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

REB3UNDER0%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

3PM1UNDER43%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 7x6/2030%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

Featured Pick

De'Aaron Fox

Rebounds OVER 3.5HIGH

This is the strongest value on the board because the line is below his 3.8 season average and his 3.9 recent average, with a 4.8 rebound average over the last 5. The value_props data is especially strong here, showing a 22.5% edge and 48.38 EV per 100 at DraftKings.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Davion Mitchell	1	3	2	50%	50%
Kasparas Jakučionis	1	3	2	100%	100%
Tyler Herro	1	2	0	0%	0%
Norman Powell	1	1	0	0%	0%
Andrew Wiggins	1	1	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 18.563%MEDIUM

Season mean is 18.8 PPG, but the available book lines sit at 18.5 and his last-5 is only 17.4 PPG. Miami's opponent defense data also shows a 117.07 defensive rating and 0.395 scoring suppression, which supports a cautious scoring stance.

reboundsOVER 3.570%HIGH

He averages 3.8 rebounds on the season and 3.9 over the last 5, with a 4.8 rebound average in the last 5 games. The value_props data shows a 22.5% edge and 48.38 EV per 100 at DraftKings, making this the clearest positive spot.

assistsUNDER 6.558%MEDIUM

Fox's season assists average is 6.3 and his last-5 has slipped to 5.2, while the draftkings line is 6.5. The role is still strong, but the recent dip and only modest edge on the under keep this in moderate-confidence territory.

threesOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.84 made threes per game on the season and 1.9 over the last 10, both above the 1.5 line. The edge is smaller than the rebounds angle, but the volume is clearly supportive.

stealsUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 1.2 and the offered line is 1.5, which is above his typical production. The last-5 is 1.0, so the under is favored despite his solid defensive activity.

prUNDER 21.557%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds is 22.6, but the market line is 21.5 and scoring is trending below season average. Because combo props add variance, this stays a cautious lean rather than a strong play.

paUNDER 24.556%MEDIUM

Fox's season points plus assists total is 25.1, but his last-5 scoring and assists have both cooled relative to season norms. The combo line is close enough to the mean that the under is slightly preferable.

timelineUNDER 18.5 PTS