AI Model:

Davion Mitchell▲

MIA · PG

PPG

9.2

RPG

2.7

APG

6.7

L5 PPG

12.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.2

9.2

12.4

RPG+0.1

2.7

2.8

APG-0.9

6.7

5.8

SPG-0.2

1.0

0.8

BPG0.0

0.2

OVER 8.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

8.5

BKN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs BKN: 8 pts

BKN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs BKN: 2 pts

CHA

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs CHA: 13 pts

DET

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DET: 8 pts

WAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs WAS: 12 pts

MIL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIL: 13 pts

ORL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ORL: 14 pts

CHA

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CHA: 4 pts

LAL

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs LAL: 16 pts

HOU

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs HOU: 15 pts

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 8.5FANDUEL

58%

AST

UNDER 5.5FANDUEL

61%

REB

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

58%

P+A

OVER 14.5FANDUEL

52%

P+R

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.2

8.6

RPG

2.9

2.7

APG

5.3

5.8

vs SAS (H2H)9 games

PPG

7.8

RPG

0.9

APG

2.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
James Harden	4	21	75%	+11.7%	medium
Desmond Bane	4	20	55%	+1.7%	medium
Cade Cunningham	3	17	33%	-20.5%	medium
Tyrese Maxey	3	16	47%

Mitchell’s assist role stays strong, but scoring is capped by a tough matchup

Davion Mitchell is trending up overall, with his last-5 scoring at 12.4 PPG versus a 9.2 season average, while his assists remain the steadiest part of his profile at 6.7 APG on the season. The biggest scoring concern is the matchup data: he has averaged just 7.8 PPG and 2.3 APG in 9 games vs this opponent, and the opponent’s scoring suppression and three-point suppression numbers both point to a lower ceiling. With Terry Rozier out, Mitchell’s ball-handling should stay elevated, but the game environment and his recent volatility keep the projection closer to his season baseline than his recent spike.

Stat Trends

PPG

12.4(↑ from 9.2)

APG

5.8(↓ from 6.7)

RPG

2.8(→ from 2.7)

3PM

1.5(↑ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so no specific defender matchup data. The broader opponent profile is negative for scoring, with a 111.7 defensive rating, 100 pace, and negative scoring and three-point suppression marks that work against upside.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Davion Mitchell▼	Points	8.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✗
Davion Mitchell▼	Assists	5.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	3	✓
Davion Mitchell▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	2	✗
Davion Mitchell▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	0	✓
Davion Mitchell▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	70%	2	✗
Davion Mitchell▼	P+A	14.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	5	✗
Davion Mitchell▼	P+R	11.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	4	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS8.5OVER2%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x12/2060%+10.0% edge▼

REB2.5UNDER3%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

AST5.5UNDER29%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x7/2035%+16.0% edge▼

PRA17.5UNDER6%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x12/2060%▼

P+R13OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

3PM1.5UNDER28%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

3PA4UNDER37%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x6/2030%▼

P+A15OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Davion Mitchell

Assists UNDER 5.5MEDIUM

This is the strongest value-backed side in the data, with multiple books showing an under edge and a best_edge of 0.062 plus 13.51 ev_under. His season average is 6.7 APG, but the last-10 is down to 5.3, and the recent trend does not fully support a price above 5.5.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Stephon Castle	2	6	13	57%	57%
Dylan Harper	2	5	6	75%	75%
De'Aaron Fox	1	3	3	50%	75%
Devin Vassell	2	2	3	50%	75%
Julian Champagnie	2	2	2	50%	50%

pointsOVER 8.558%MEDIUM

He averages 9.2 PPG on the season and 10.5 in the last 10, with recent games of 15 and 16 points. The over is supported by the Terry Rozier absence, but the opponent context and his 7.777777777777778 PPG vs this team keep confidence modest.

assistsUNDER 5.561%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 6.7, but the last-10 mark is 5.3 and last-5 is 5.8, signaling some cooling. Value data also flags the under with a 0.062 best_edge and 13.51 ev_under.

reboundsOVER 2.554%MEDIUM

He averages 2.7 RPG on the season and 3.0 over the last 10, so the line is slightly below his typical output. This is a low-variance prop relative to his scoring and assist markets, but the edge is small.

threesUNDER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.27 threes per game on the season and 1.5 over the last 5, but the season baseline still sits below the 1.5 line. The opponent’s three-point suppression also makes the under more appealing than the recent form suggests.

stocksUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.2, and recent form has been 0.9 over the last 10 and 0.9 over the last 20. That leaves him short of a 1.5 threshold unless he pops unusually on defense.

paOVER 14.552%MEDIUM

His combined points-plus-assists profile is anchored by 9.2 PPG and 6.7 APG, which clears 14.5 on season averages. Still, combo props carry extra variance and his recent assist dip lowers the ceiling.

prUNDER 11.555%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds average is 11.85, so this line is right at his baseline and not a clear over. Given the over-bias warning and modest recent volatility, the under is the safer side.

timelineOVER 8.5 PTS