AI Model:

Andrew Wiggins▼

MIA · PF

PPG

15.9

RPG

5.1

APG

2.8

L5 PPG

13.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.5

15.9

13.4

RPG+0.3

5.1

5.4

APG+0.4

2.8

3.2

SPG-0.5

1.1

0.6

BPG+0.9

1.1

2.0

OVER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

12.5

BOS

2026-02-06

2026-02-06 vs BOS: 26 pts

WAS

2026-02-08

2026-02-08 vs WAS: 11 pts

UTA

2026-02-09

2026-02-09 vs UTA: 26 pts

ATL

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs ATL: 13 pts

MEM

2026-02-21

2026-02-21 vs MEM: 28 pts

MIL

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs MIL: 16 pts

PHI

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs PHI: 18 pts

HOU

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs HOU: 12 pts

BKN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs BKN: 13 pts

BKN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs BKN: 8 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

78%

REB

OVER 4.5FANDUEL

63%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

66%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

59%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

61%

PRA

OVER 19.5FANDUEL

54%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.5

15.8

RPG

5.1

6.0

APG

3.1

2.5

vs SAS (H2H)14 games

PPG

14.0

RPG

4.9

APG

1.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaylen Brown	3	17	52%	-3.2%	medium
Paolo Banchero	4	16	44%	-5.9%	medium
Mikal Bridges	4	14	66%	+2.4%	medium
Michael Porter Jr.	2	14	47%

Wiggins brings a stable all-around floor, with points and threes drawing the cleanest looks

Andrew Wiggins is sitting at 15.9 PPG, 5.1 RPG, and 2.8 APG for the season, with a recent 17.1 PPG last-10 but a softer 13.4 PPG over the last five, so the scoring form has cooled a bit. His minutes have held near 31 MPG on the season and 29.8 MPG recently, and the available value data still points to a strong points side at lower lines. The matchup context is not especially explosive: Miami is at home, the game is on two days rest, and Wiggins has averaged 14.0 PPG and 4.857142857142857 RPG in 14 games vs this opponent. With no teammate absences changing his role beyond the data provided, the safest angle is to lean into a modest projection rather than chase his hotter stretch.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.4(↓ from 15.9)

RPG

5.4(→ from 5.1)

APG

3.2(↑ from 2.8)

Key Matchup

The data shows no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on. Overall opponent context is somewhat favorable for restraint: the Spurs carry a 111.7 defensive rating, 100 pace, and negative scoring and three-point suppression numbers, which can cap ceiling outcomes.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Andrew Wiggins▼	Points	12.5	OVER	78%HIGH	1/2	70%	9	✗
Andrew Wiggins▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	3	✗
Andrew Wiggins▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	1	✗
Andrew Wiggins▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✗
Andrew Wiggins▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Andrew Wiggins▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	60%	3	✓
Andrew Wiggins▼	PRA	19.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	13	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS13.5UNDER10%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

3PM1.5UNDER14%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 6x14/2070%▼

P+R20UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

REB4.5UNDER22%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

PRA20.5UNDER1%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)13/2065%▼

P+A17.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

AST2.5UNDER28%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

FTM2UNDER36%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

STL1UNDER41%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

BLK1UNDER48%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (8/20)7/2035%▼

3PA5UNDER31%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

FTA2UNDER12%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Andrew Wiggins

Points OVER 12.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number on the board because his season average is 15.9 PPG, his last-10 is 17.1 PPG, and the value data shows a 23.5% edge with strong EV. Even with the last-5 cooling to 13.4 PPG, the line remains well below his baseline and is the strongest combination of price and role.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Devin Vassell	2	7	9	43%	57%
Stephon Castle	2	4	8	50%	67%
Julian Champagnie	2	3	0	0%	0%
Victor Wembanyama	2	3	13	75%	75%
Keldon Johnson	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 12.578%HIGH

His season scoring average is 15.9 PPG, and the value data shows a strong OVER lean at 12.5 with a 23.5% edge and a 46.68 EV per 100. Even with the last-5 dip to 13.4 PPG, this line sits well below his season norm and recent last-10 mark of 17.1 PPG.

reboundsOVER 4.563%MEDIUM

He averages 5.1 RPG on the season and 5.5 RPG over the last 20, which supports a small edge over 4.5. The prop variance is moderate, but the recent rebounding baseline is still above the posted line.

assistsOVER 2.560%MEDIUM

Wiggins is at 2.8 APG for the season and 3.2 APG over the last five, so 2.5 is a reachable number. The value board also flags this side with positive edge, though the assist profile is still volatile enough to keep confidence modest.

threesOVER 1.566%MEDIUM

He averages 2.0 threes per game for the season and 2.7 over the last five, well above 1.5. The recent volume is strong enough to support the over despite some regression risk from the hotter short-term stretch.

blocksOVER 0.559%MEDIUM

His season blocks average is 1.1 and he has 1.3 over the last 10, so 0.5 is a favorable threshold. This is a lower-variance way to capture his defensive counting stats.

stocksOVER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 2.14 stocks on the season and 2.1 over the last 10, which comfortably clears 1.5. The combination of 1.1 steals and 1.1 blocks gives this prop a solid floor.

praOVER 19.554%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 23.8, but combo props are higher variance and the last-5 scoring dip adds some caution. The line is still below his season average, yet not enough to justify a high-confidence stance.

timelineOVER 12.5 PTS