AI Model:

Ousmane Dieng▲

MIL · SF

PPG

5.9

RPG

2.4

APG

1.5

L5 PPG

11.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.1

5.9

11.0

RPG+1.2

2.4

3.6

APG+0.1

1.5

1.6

SPG+0.6

0.4

1.0

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

11.5

CHI

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs CHI: 7 pts

BOS

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs BOS: 13 pts

ATL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs ATL: 14 pts

UTA

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs UTA: 11 pts

ORL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs ORL: 2 pts

PHX

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHX: 12 pts

MIA

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIA: 0 pts

CLE

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CLE: 19 pts

UTA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs UTA: 13 pts

PHX

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs PHX: 11 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

REB

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

78%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

63%

PRA

UNDER 19.5FANDUEL

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.1

8.8

RPG

4.3

2.3

APG

2.5

1.4

vs LAC (H2H)10 games

PPG

3.1

RPG

0.9

APG

0.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Devin Booker	2	9	27%	-19.3%	low
Jalen Green	2	9	27%	-15.1%	low
Kevin Durant	1	7	33%	-9.1%	low
Kyle Filipowski	4	7	71%	+29.0%

Minutes spike keeps Dieng relevant, but the books still shade his rebound and points volume lower

Ousmane Dieng’s recent role has been much larger than his season baseline, with his last 5 games jumping to 11.0 PPG, 3.6 RPG, and 27.8 MPG versus season marks of 5.9 PPG, 2.4 RPG, and 16.0 MPG. That said, his matchup history versus this opponent is muted at 3.1 PPG, 0.9 RPG, and 0.6 APG across 10 games, so the elevated recent production needs the minutes to hold. The absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Porter Jr. supports usage, but the most reliable angle from the data is still the rebounding under at current lines. His volume is up, but his season averages and the opponent history keep the overall projection in check.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.0(↑ from 5.9)

RPG

3.6(↑ from 2.4)

APG

1.6(→ from 1.5)

Stocks

1.2(↑ from 0.7)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. The opponent context does show a defense with a 113.11 rating, 100 pace, and three-point suppression of 1.059, while opponent absences include Bradley Beal and Ivica Zubac, which is relevant to the game environment rather than a single defender.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Ousmane Dieng▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	7	✓
Ousmane Dieng▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	1/2	70%	5	✗
Ousmane Dieng▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	7	✗
Ousmane Dieng▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✗
Ousmane Dieng▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Ousmane Dieng▼	PRA	19.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	19	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA29.5UNDER17%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)2/2010%+38.1% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Line moved +1.0▼

PTS18.5UNDER32%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x2/2010%+36.3% edgeLine moved +1.0; Value edge changed -0.032▼

REB5.5UNDER24%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)6/2030%+23.3% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge changed +0.068; Odds moved materially▼

AST5.5UNDER21%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)4/2020%+29.3% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Line moved +1.0; Value edge shifted +0.119▼

P+R15.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

P+A15UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

3PM1.5UNDER42%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 6x7/2035%+20.4% edgeNo material changes▼

R+A8UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Ousmane Dieng

Rebounds UNDER 4.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the data. His season rebound average is 2.42, his last-20 is 3.4, and his head-to-head rebound output against this opponent is just 0.9 RPG over 10 games. The value feed also shows a very strong under position, with an 80.4% projected under probability and a 35.3% edge at FanDuel's 4.5 line.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Kawhi Leonard	2	5	6	40%	50%
Derrick Jones Jr.	2	2	2	50%	50%
Nicolas Batum	2	2	3	100%	150%
Kobe Sanders	2	2	3	100%	150%
Darius Garland	2	1	4	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 11.564%MEDIUM

Season mean is 5.91 and his vs-opponent scoring is only 3.1 PPG across 10 games, which is well below this number. The last 5 at 11.0 PPG is a surge, but with an over-bias warning and a recent mean that is only slightly below the line, the under is still the safer side.

reboundsUNDER 4.578%HIGH

Season rebound mean is 2.42 and his vs-opponent rebound average is just 0.9 RPG across 10 games. Even with recent minutes up to 27.5 and last 5 at 3.6 RPG, the 4.5 line sits above both season and recent averages, and the value data strongly backs the under.

assistsUNDER 2.567%MEDIUM

His season assists average is 1.49 and the recent mean is 2.7, but that recent number comes with a large standard deviation of 2.61. The line is still above his season baseline, so the under remains playable despite the minutes bump.

threesOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.13 made threes per game on the season and 2.0 over the last 5, with 2.2 FG3M per game recently. The line is only 1.5 and his three-point role has clearly expanded, though confidence is capped by variance.

stocksUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.67 and even the last 5 is only 1.2, which is below a 1.5 threshold. The away split is better at 1.6, but the season baseline and volatility make the under the safer call.

praUNDER 19.557%MEDIUM

Using the season profile, his combined production is well below this number, and combo props carry extra variance. The recent minutes spike helps, but his season scoring, rebounding, and assist means do not justify a strong over.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS