AI Model:

John Collins▲

LAC · PF

PPG

13.7

RPG

5.3

APG

1.0

L5 PPG

13.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.7

13.7

13.0

RPG+0.7

5.3

6.0

APG+0.4

1.0

1.4

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG0.0

0.8

UNDER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

13.5

HOU

2026-02-10

2026-02-10 vs HOU: 17 pts

HOU

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs HOU: 12 pts

DEN

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs DEN: 11 pts

LAL

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs LAL: 12 pts

NOP

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs NOP: 15 pts

SAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAC: 10 pts

SAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs SAS: 11 pts

NOP

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs NOP: 18 pts

NOP

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs NOP: 18 pts

DAL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs DAL: 8 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 13.5FANDUEL

68%

REB

UNDER 7.5FANDUEL

73%

AST

OVER 0.5STAKE

62%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

56%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

54%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

P+R

UNDER 20.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

P+A

UNDER 15.5BETMGM

70%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.1

15.5

RPG

7.1

5.0

APG

1.7

1.1

vs MIL (H2H)12 games

PPG

14.9

RPG

6.2

APG

1.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	3	13	50%	-22.1%	medium
Royce O'Neale	4	10	63%	-13.7%	medium
Miles Bridges	2	10	20%	-35.4%	low
Dominick Barlow	2	10	80%

Collins has a solid scoring floor, but the books are leaning his way on the under

John Collins is producing near his season norm with 13.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and 1.0 APG, while his last 5 and last 10 points marks sit close at 13.0 and 13.2. The matchup context is mixed: Milwaukee has a 116.21 defensive rating and a 0.2 scoring suppression, but Collins is also listed probable and the Clippers are missing Ivica Zubac, which can support his frontcourt workload. His recent role looks steady at 25.4 MPG over the last 5 and 26.6 MPG over the last 10, but his rebounding has been more volatile than his scoring. Overall, this projects as a moderate-output game with better support for efficient unders on inflated lines than for aggressive overs.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.0(→ from 13.7)

RPG

6.0(↑ from 5.3)

APG

1.4(↑ from 1.0)

Key Matchup

Brook Lopez is the listed key defender, with 24 points allowed and a 0.5294117647058824 FG% allowed. Milwaukee’s defense has a 116.21 rating with 0.2 scoring suppression, so the matchup is not a strong boost for an aggressive scoring over.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
John Collins▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	60%
John Collins▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	73%HIGH	2/2	60%
John Collins▼	Assists	0.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	70%
John Collins▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	10%
John Collins▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	40%
John Collins▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%
John Collins▼	P+R	20.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	50%
John Collins▼	P+A	15.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	1/2	60%

ML Scout Analysis

PTS11.5OVER35%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (15/20)OVER 4x14/2070%+19.5% edge▼

REB5.5OVER10%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)13/2065%+15.5% edge▼

PRA24UNDER36%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA3UNDER33%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 7x8/2040%▼

P+R20.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 4x12/2060%▼

P+A15.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

AST1OVER12%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)6/2030%▼

3PA2.5UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTM1UNDER15%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

3PM1UNDER39%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)5/2025%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

John Collins

Rebounds UNDER 7.5HIGH

This is backed by his season mean of 5.3 rebounds and even his last-10 mark of 6.4, which still sits short of 7.5. The value data is especially strong here, showing a clear UNDER edge at multiple books, making it the most reliable angle in this set.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Pete Nance	1	5	0	0%	0%
Andre Jackson Jr.	1	3	2	50%	50%
Gary Trent Jr.	1	1	11	100%	138%
Ousmane Dieng	1	1	2	33%	33%
Jericho Sims	1	1	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 13.568%MEDIUM

His season mean is 13.7 and recent mean is 13.2, so 13.5 is slightly above his baseline. The value data also flags UNDER at 13.5 with a 13.7% edge.

reboundsUNDER 7.573%HIGH

He averages 5.3 rebounds for the season and 6.4 over the last 10, still well below 7.5. The value table shows UNDER with a 14.3% edge to 16.2% edge depending on book.

assistsOVER 0.562%MEDIUM

Collins averages 1.0 assists on the season and 1.4 over the last 5, making 0.5 a very low bar. His recent distribution supports clearing this line more often than not.

threesOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.34 made threes per game on the season and has 1.0 over the last 5, so 1.5 is playable but not a lock. The prop is supported by positive edge data, though recent volume is a bit softer.

blocksOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

His season block rate is 0.8 per game and 0.7 over the last 10, which keeps 0.5 within reach. Variance is notable, so this is a thinner play.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.67 stocks on the season and 1.7 over the last 10, so this is a reasonable threshold. The recent form supports the over, but the standard deviation is high enough to limit confidence.

prUNDER 20.564%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds production is 19.0 on the raw averages, below the 20.5 line. Combo props carry more variance, so the under is the safer angle.

paUNDER 15.570%HIGH

Collins averages 14.7 points plus assists on the season, and recent assist growth has not pushed this near 15.5. This is a cleaner under than most combo options.

timelineUNDER 13.5 PTS