AI Model:

Derrick Jones Jr.▲

LAC · SF

PPG

11.2

RPG

3.2

APG

1.5

L5 PPG

10.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.6

11.2

10.6

RPG+0.4

3.2

3.6

APG+1.1

1.5

2.6

SPG0.0

1.0

BPG-0.5

1.1

0.6

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

SAS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs SAS: 12 pts

MEM

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MEM: 16 pts

NYK

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs NYK: 16 pts

MIN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs MIN: 12 pts

CHI

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CHI: 10 pts

SAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs SAC: 2 pts

SAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs SAS: 10 pts

NOP

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs NOP: 4 pts

NOP

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs NOP: 22 pts

DAL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs DAL: 15 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5

60%

REB

OVER 3.5

58%

AST

OVER 1.5

57%

3PM

UNDER 1.5

61%

STL

OVER 0.5

66%

BLK

OVER 0.5

62%

STL+BLK

OVER 2

64%

OVER 0.5

67%

PRA

UNDER 17

56%

P+A

UNDER 12.5

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.5

11.4

RPG

3.4

3.9

APG

1.3

2.4

vs MIL (H2H)8 games

PPG

4.6

RPG

3.5

APG

0.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Devin Booker	3	12	38%	-17.4%	medium
De'Aaron Fox	3	11	38%	-13.2%	medium
Trey Murphy III	3	10	83%	+16.0%	medium
Jamal Murray	2	10	17%

Derrick Jones Jr. has a strong role-based outlook with key absences on both sides

Derrick Jones Jr. is averaging 11.2 PPG, 3.2 RPG, and 1.5 APG on the season, and his recent playing time has climbed to 31.7 MPG over the last 10 games. With Bradley Beal and Ivica Zubac out for his team, his minutes and involvement are supported, while Milwaukee is also missing Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Porter Jr., which shifts the game environment. His recent production has been steady overall, but the matchup data is mixed because his head-to-head history vs Milwaukee is much lower at 4.625 PPG across 8 games. The clearest edge is in defensive production, where his stocks have stayed strong at 2.08 per game season-long and 2.6 over the last 10.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.6(→ from 11.2)

RPG

3.6(↑ from 3.2)

APG

2.6(↑ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, and the opponent profile shows a 116.21 defensive rating with 100 pace plus 0.2 scoring suppression and 1.361 three suppression. His prior results vs Milwaukee are light at 4.625 PPG, 3.5 RPG, and 0.625 APG across 8 games.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	7	✓
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	5	✓
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	1	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✓
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	0	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✓
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	STL+BLK	2	OVER	64%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	Turnovers	0.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	PRA	17	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	13	✓
Derrick Jones Jr.▼	P+A	12.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	8	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS8.5OVER14%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x12/2060%+6.5% edge▼

REB3.5OVER28%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)11/2055%+6.5% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA13.5OVER2%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x12/2060%+5.9% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.182▼

R+A5.5UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

P+R14OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

P+A11OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Derrick Jones Jr.

Stocks OVER 2.0MEDIUM

This is the cleanest blend of role and form: he is averaging 2.08 stocks on the season and 2.6 over the last 10, with recent minutes up to 31.7 MPG. Compared with his scoring props, the defensive counting stats are less dependent on shot volume and provide a steadier path to clearing the number.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Ryan Rollins	1	5	0	0%	0%
Andre Jackson Jr.	1	3	0	0%	0%
Pete Nance	2	2	3	33%	50%
AJ Green	1	2	2	0%	0%
Taurean Prince	2	2	4	67%	67%

pointsUNDER 11.560%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.15 and his last-5 is 10.6, so 11.5 is slightly above the most relevant baseline. The head-to-head vs Milwaukee is only 4.625 PPG across 8 games, which reinforces caution on an OVER.

reboundsOVER 3.558%MEDIUM

He is at 3.2 RPG for the season and 4.2 over the last 10, with 31.7 MPG recently compared to 27.56 MPG season-long. The recent role increase and teammate absences support a modest rebound bump.

assistsOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.46 and his last-5 is 2.6, with recent minutes at 31.7 MPG. This is still a volatile category, but the current role makes 1.5 reachable.

threesUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.26 made threes per game season-long and 1.3 over the last 20, which sits below 1.5. Milwaukee's three suppression is listed at 1.361, which also leans against an OVER.

stealsOVER 0.566%MEDIUM

He averages 1.0 steals per game on the season and 1.2 over the last 20, so 0.5 is a very low bar. This is one of the cleaner volume-based overs in his profile.

blocksOVER 0.562%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 blocks per game on the season and 1.1 over the last 20, making 0.5 a favorable threshold. Recent games also show multiple block outcomes in the last 10.

stocksOVER 264%MEDIUM

His season stock average is 2.08 and recent stock rate is 2.6, both above 2.0. The defensive event category is one of his most reliable paths to production.

turnoversOVER 0.567%MEDIUM

He is at 0.8 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 1.0 over the last 5. With his minutes up, clearing 0.5 is the likelier side.

praUNDER 1756%MEDIUM

His season baseline projects to about 15.8 PRA using 11.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 1.5 assists, while recent form is around 16.8. Because combo props carry higher variance, the safer lean is under 17.0.

paUNDER 12.557%MEDIUM

He averages 12.7 points plus assists on the season and 13.2 over the last 5, but the season baseline is still below 12.5 plus the scoring matchup history is soft. This is close, so the edge is modest.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Derrick Jones Jr. has a strong role-based outlook with key absences on both sides

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 11.5 PTS