Garland’s playmaking volume is strong, but the points market is still priced too high

He averages only 2.4 rebounds on the season and 2.4 over the last 5, so 2.5 is slightly above his typical output. The recent and home/away splits do not show enough rebound volume to justify an OVER lean.

Garland averages 2.69 made threes on the season and 3.8 over the last 5, with 3.3 at home. This is a thin margin, but his current three-point form is strong enough to lean OVER despite the opponent’s three suppression.

He averages 0.9 steals on the season and 1.1 over the last 10, which is still below 1.5. His stock production does not support a high-steal projection at this line.

His season PRA baseline is 28.2 using 18.9 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 6.9 assists, while the line sits at 31.5. The recent surge raises upside, but combo props carry extra variance and this number is still above the season norm.