AI Model:

Ty Jerome▼

MEM · PG

PPG

19.9

RPG

2.9

APG

5.8

L5 PPG

21.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.5

19.9

21.4

RPG+0.1

2.9

3.0

APG+1.0

5.8

6.8

SPG-0.4

1.0

0.6

BPG0.0

0.2

UNDER 20.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

20.5

GSW

2026-02-09

2026-02-09 vs GSW: 19 pts

DEN

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs DEN: 19 pts

MIA

2026-02-21

2026-02-21 vs MIA: 17 pts

GSW

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs GSW: 22 pts

MIN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIN: 14 pts

LAC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs LAC: 23 pts

PHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHI: 26 pts

DET

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs DET: 21 pts

DEN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DEN: 21 pts

BOS

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs BOS: 16 pts

Over 20.5

Under 20.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 20.5DRAFTKINGS

86%

AST

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

66%

P+A

UNDER 26.5FANDUEL

58%

PRA

UNDER 29.5FANDUEL

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.9

19.5

RPG

3.2

2.2

APG

6.1

4.7

vs ATL (H2H)7 games

PPG

11.4

RPG

2.0

APG

4.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaden McDaniels	3	12	70%	+12.6%	medium
Christian Braun	2	8	33%	-14.1%	low
Sam Hauser	1	5	0%	-47.4%	low
Gui Santos	2	4	0%

Ty Jerome’s minutes and usage are strong, but the scoring line still looks a touch high

Ty Jerome is averaging 19.9 PPG, 5.8 APG, and 2.9 RPG on 22.6 MPG this season, with his last 5 climbing to 21.4 PPG and 6.8 APG in 25.0 MPG. The recent form is solid, but the broader trend is still listed as down, and his head-to-head mark vs this opponent is only 11.4 PPG across 7 games. With several teammate absences boosting his role, the volume is real, but the pricing on points and combo props is still asking for a fairly efficient night.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.4(↑ from 19.9)

APG

6.8(↑ from 5.8)

RPG

3.0(→ from 2.9)

Key Matchup

Dyson Daniels is listed as the key defender, and his profile shows 7.2 minutes with 7 points allowed and a 0.42857142857142855 field-goal percentage allowed. The opponent team defense numbers also show a 116.52 defensive rating and 0.27 scoring suppression, which slightly supports the under on Jerome’s primary scoring props.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Ty Jerome▼	Points	20.5	UNDER	86%HIGH	2/2	50%	17	✓
Ty Jerome▼	Assists	5.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	4	✓
Ty Jerome▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✓
Ty Jerome▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	3	✓
Ty Jerome▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	60%	3	✗
Ty Jerome▼	P+A	26.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	21	✓
Ty Jerome▼	PRA	29.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	22	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A25.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/1560%▼

PTS19UNDER2%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x7/1547%▼

AST7UNDER22%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x3/1520%▼

PRA27OVER11%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x7/1547%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

3PM3UNDER21%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x3/1520%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA7UNDER29%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x4/1527%▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x6/1540%▼

REB2OVER5%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x6/1540%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

STL1UNDER20%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (8/20)4/1527%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTM2UNDER38%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 5x7/1547%▼

FTA3UNDER24%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 5x6/1540%▼

P+R22.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x7/1547%▼

Featured Pick

Ty Jerome

Points UNDER 20.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because the season average is 19.9 PPG, the recent mean is 19.8 PPG, and the head-to-head average is only 11.4 PPG across 7 games. The value props also strongly favor the under at the 20.5 line, making it the best combination of statistical support and market edge.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Dyson Daniels	1	3	0	0%	0%
Corey Kispert	1	2	3	50%	75%
CJ McCollum	1	1	0	0%	0%
Gabe Vincent	1	0	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 20.586%HIGH

His season mean is 19.9 PPG and his recent mean is 19.8 PPG, both below 20.5. The value data is heavily on the UNDER, and his vs-opponent scoring history is just 11.4 PPG in 7 games.

assistsUNDER 5.560%MEDIUM

He averages 5.8 APG for the season, but his away mean is only 4.88 APG and this matchup is away. The recent 5.9 APG is close to the line, so this is a thinner under than the points prop.

reboundsUNDER 3.568%MEDIUM

Jerome is at 2.9 RPG for the season and 3.2 RPG over the last 5, still short of 3.5. His away rebound average is only 2.38, which supports the under.

threesOVER 2.563%MEDIUM

He is averaging 2.79 made threes on the season and 3.0 over the last 10, with 2.8 home and 2.75 away production. The line sits below his season mean, so the over is reasonable despite the general over-bias warning.

stocksUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.21 and recent mean is 1.2, both below 1.5. With no strong evidence of a spike, the under is the safer side.

paUNDER 26.558%MEDIUM

Points plus assists averages 25.69 using season means, which is below 26.5. Combo props carry extra variance, so even with added minutes this line still leans under.

praUNDER 29.557%MEDIUM

His season PRA based on the provided means is 28.59, below 29.5. The extra volatility in combo props makes this a conservative under.

timelineUNDER 20.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Ty Jerome’s minutes and usage are strong, but the scoring line still looks a touch high

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 20.5 PTS