AI Model:

Onyeka Okongwu▼

ATL · C

PPG

15.5

RPG

7.8

APG

3.3

L5 PPG

8.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-6.9

15.5

8.6

RPG-1.2

7.8

6.6

APG+0.7

3.3

4.0

SPG-0.7

1.1

0.4

BPG-0.3

1.1

0.8

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

14.5

POR

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs POR: 25 pts

MIL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MIL: 21 pts

PHI

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs PHI: 10 pts

DAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs DAL: 18 pts

BKN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BKN: 13 pts

MIL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIL: 4 pts

ORL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ORL: 15 pts

DAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DAL: 12 pts

HOU

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs HOU: 6 pts

GSW

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs GSW: 6 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5FANDUEL

82%

REB

UNDER 8.5FANDUEL

62%

AST

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

60%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

58%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

63%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

61%

OVER 1.5

59%

P+R

UNDER 22.5FANDUEL

66%

P+A

UNDER 17.5FANDUEL

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.4

13.7

RPG

7.8

7.0

APG

3.4

2.3

vs MEM (H2H)7 games

PPG

12.0

RPG

9.3

APG

1.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Duren	4	25	65%	+17.1%	medium
Nikola Vučević	3	19	71%	+18.8%	medium
Moussa Diabaté	3	19	75%	+27.1%	medium
Karl-Anthony Towns	2	18	93%

Role stable, scoring trend cools: rebounds and stocks stay live

Onyeka Okongwu is still playing a starter’s workload at 31.2 MPG on the season, but his recent form has cooled sharply with 8.6 PPG over the last 5 and 13.0 PPG over the last 10 versus 15.5 PPG season-long. The matchup context is mixed: Memphis has several key frontcourt absences, but Okongwu’s own head-to-head scoring output against this opponent has been only 12.0 PPG across 7 games. With his season rebounding and defensive production holding steadier than points, the safer projections lean toward modest production rather than a big scoring spike.

Stat Trends

PPG

8.6(↓ from 15.5)

RPG

6.6(↓ from 7.8)

APG

4.0(↑ from 3.3)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data available, so no specific defender matchup data. Memphis is also missing multiple frontcourt pieces, which helps the interior environment, but the opponent context does not override the recent scoring decline.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Onyeka Okongwu▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	2/2	60%	16	✗
Onyeka Okongwu▼	Rebounds	8.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	5	✓
Onyeka Okongwu▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	2	✗
Onyeka Okongwu▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	0	✓
Onyeka Okongwu▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✓
Onyeka Okongwu▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	60%	3	✓
Onyeka Okongwu▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	—	20%	1	✗
Onyeka Okongwu▼	P+R	22.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	21	✓
Onyeka Okongwu▼	P+A	17.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	18	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R21UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

P+A16UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

R+A11UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x6/2030%▼

Featured Pick

Onyeka Okongwu

Points UNDER 14.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge because the market line is below his season average but still above his recent production trend. He’s at 8.6 PPG over the last 5, 13.0 over the last 10, and just 12.0 PPG in 7 games vs this opponent, which aligns well with the under.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jaren Jackson Jr.	1	5	6	43%	43%
Jock Landale	1	3	2	0%	0%
Ja Morant	1	1	6	50%	50%
Cedric Coward	1	1	7	75%	88%
John Konchar	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 14.582%HIGH

Season mean is 15.5, but the last 5 have dropped to 8.6 and his last 10 are 13.0, signaling a clear scoring slowdown. His head-to-head average vs this opponent is only 12.0 PPG in 7 games, which supports the under.

reboundsUNDER 8.562%MEDIUM

He averages 7.8 RPG on the season and 7.5 over the last 10, both below this number. The recent sample is steadier than points, but still does not justify a strong over lean.

assistsOVER 2.560%MEDIUM

Okongwu’s season assist rate is 3.3 APG and he is at 4.0 APG over the last 5, with 3.4 over the last 10. The line sits below both his season and recent production, making the over viable despite some variance.

threesUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

He averages 1.98 threes per game on the season, but the recent last-5 mark is only 1.0 and the line is set at 1.5. Because the prop has high variance, the under is the more cautious play.

blocksOVER 0.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 BPG on the season and 1.5 over the last 10, which is comfortably above a 0.5 line. Even with volatility, the baseline shot-blocking volume supports the over.

stocksOVER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.2 and the last 10 are 2.7, both well above a 1.5 threshold. The category is volatile, but the volume is strong enough to support an over lean.

turnoversOVER 1.559%MEDIUM

He is at 2.0 turnovers per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 5, so a projected line around 1.5 is reasonable. Given his starter minutes and playmaking role, the over is slightly more attractive than the under.

prUNDER 22.566%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds is 23.3 (15.5 + 7.8), but recent form has slipped to roughly 15.2 over the last 5 games using the provided averages. With scoring cooling and rebounds not spiking, the under is the safer side.

paUNDER 17.564%MEDIUM

Season points-plus-assists is 18.8, but the last 5 is only 12.6 due to the scoring dip. The assist baseline is fine, yet the reduced scoring output keeps this below the line more often than not.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS