AI Model:

Olivier-Maxence Prosper▼

MEM · C

PPG

9.1

RPG

3.5

APG

1.0

L5 PPG

14.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.5

9.1

14.6

RPG+0.3

3.5

3.8

APG-0.2

1.0

0.8

SPG+0.3

0.7

1.0

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

12.5

POR

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs POR: 17 pts

LAC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs LAC: 11 pts

BKN

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs BKN: 15 pts

PHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHI: 11 pts

DAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DAL: 9 pts

DET

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs DET: 17 pts

CHI

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs CHI: 13 pts

DEN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DEN: 19 pts

BOS

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs BOS: 14 pts

CHA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs CHA: 10 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

92%

AST

UNDER 1

64%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

STL+BLK

OVER 0.9

58%

P+R

UNDER 18.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.1

13.5

RPG

4.6

4.5

APG

1.4

1.3

vs ATL (H2H)2 games

PPG

0.0

RPG

0.5

APG

0.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Donovan Clingan	3	13	72%	+13.8%	medium
Rudy Gobert	4	8	50%	-4.9%	medium
Nikola Jokić	2	8	75%	+7.6%	low
Julius Randle	4	7	65%

Expanded role boosts counting stats, but rebounding line still looks inflated

Olivier-Maxence Prosper is producing well above his season baseline lately, with 14.6 PPG over the last 5 and 13.6 PPG over the last 10 versus a 9.1 PPG season mark, while minutes have jumped from 18.5 to 25.4-26.2. The volume bump is supported by several teammate absences, especially Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Santi Aldama, Zach Edey, and others, which keeps his offensive role elevated. Even so, his recent scoring is still below the sportsbook points line of 12.5 only slightly above season context, while his rebound line is far above his typical output and recent average. The matchup also brings no specific defender matchup data, so the main edge comes from usage and role rather than a targeted defensive exploit.

Stat Trends

PPG

14.6(↑ from 9.1)

RPG

3.8(→ from 3.5)

APG

0.8(↓ from 1.0)

3PM

1.8(↑ from 1.0)

Key Matchup

The provided matchup data includes no specific defender matchup data. Atlanta's team defensive context shows a 116.52 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of 0.27, which does not create a strong case for aggressive overs.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Olivier-Maxence Prosper▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	8	✓
Olivier-Maxence Prosper▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	92%HIGH	1/2	50%	3	✓
Olivier-Maxence Prosper▼	Assists	1	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✗
Olivier-Maxence Prosper▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	0	✓
Olivier-Maxence Prosper▼	STL+BLK	0.9	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	100%	4	✓
Olivier-Maxence Prosper▼	P+R	18.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	1/2	60%	11	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A16UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

R+A6UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x6/2030%▼

P+R19UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Olivier-Maxence Prosper

Rebounds UNDER 5.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the data: 3.5 RPG season average, 3.8 RPG over the last 5, and strong value-prop support for the under at 5.5. The gap between his typical board production and the line is large enough to overcome recent minutes growth.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Christian Koloko	1	1	0	0%	0%
Dyson Daniels	1	1	4	100%	100%
CJ McCollum	1	0	0	0%	0%
Buddy Hield	1	0	0	0%	0%
Caleb Houstan	1	0	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 12.568%MEDIUM

His season mean is 9.1 PPG and even with the recent rise to 14.6 PPG over the last 5, the over-bias warning and regression risk make the 12.5 line less attractive. The best available value data also shows the under as the preferred side at this number.

reboundsUNDER 5.592%HIGH

He averages 3.5 RPG on the season and 3.8 RPG over the last 5, well below 5.5. Value data is strongly aligned with the under, and his recent rebound spike is not enough to justify the higher line.

assistsUNDER 164%MEDIUM

He is at 1.0 APG for the season and 0.8 APG over the last 5, with no strong assist spike despite the extra minutes. The stat profile stays modest and the recent trend is not strong enough to push an over.

threesUNDER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.02 threes per game on the season and 1.8 over the last 5, but the recent jump is volatile and the available line data does not provide a positive edge on the over. With season mean close to the line, the safer side is under.

stocksOVER 0.958%MEDIUM

He has 0.93 stocks per game on the season and 1.6 over the last 10, with a 1.8 home stocks average. That gives him a reasonable path to clear a sub-1.0 projection, though the variance keeps confidence moderate.

prUNDER 18.570%HIGH

His season scoring and rebounding averages sum to 12.6 PR, and even recent form is not consistently above 18.5. Combo props are higher variance, so the under is the conservative call.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS