AI Model:

Nickeil Alexander-Walker▼

ATL · SG

PPG

20.3

RPG

3.4

APG

3.6

L5 PPG

24.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.9

20.3

24.2

RPG0.0

3.4

APG-1.0

3.6

2.6

SPG+0.7

1.3

2.0

BPG-0.1

0.5

0.4

UNDER 20.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

20.5

POR

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs POR: 15 pts

MIL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MIL: 23 pts

PHI

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs PHI: 24 pts

DAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs DAL: 29 pts

BKN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BKN: 18 pts

MIL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIL: 20 pts

ORL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ORL: 41 pts

DAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DAL: 22 pts

HOU

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs HOU: 21 pts

GSW

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs GSW: 17 pts

Over 20.5

Under 20.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 20.5FANDUEL

72%

REB

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

68%

AST

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

74%

3PM

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

63%

STL

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

56%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

60%

PRA

UNDER 27.5FANDUEL

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

21.1

19.1

RPG

2.8

4.0

APG

4.2

4.1

vs MEM (H2H)15 games

PPG

9.3

RPG

2.2

APG

2.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Desmond Bane	4	24	59%	+4.3%	medium
Kon Knueppel	4	21	43%	-12.4%	medium
Immanuel Quickley	4	19	83%	+21.0%	medium
Quentin Grimes	3	17	43%

Points trend is cooling, but the role still supports steady production

Nickeil Alexander-Walker is averaging 20.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.6 assists on the season, with his last 5 games showing a scoring bump to 24.2 points but a down trend overall. His home split is slightly stronger for scoring at 21.1 PPG, and the opponent context is favorable enough to keep his minutes and shot volume relevant. That said, his head-to-head history vs this opponent is just 9.33 PPG in 15 games, which is well below his current season scoring level. With no specific defender matchup data, the cleanest lean is to respect the season baseline more than the hot last-5 stretch.

Stat Trends

PPG

24.2(↓ from 20.3)

APG

2.6(↓ from 3.6)

RPG

3.4(→ from 3.4)

Key Matchup

His history vs this opponent is 9.33 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 2.87 assists in 15 games, which is notably below his season production. Opponent defense shows a 118.67 defensive rating and pace of 100, and there is no specific defender matchup data.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Nickeil Alexander-Walker▼	Points	20.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	40%	26	✗
Nickeil Alexander-Walker▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	2	✓
Nickeil Alexander-Walker▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	80%	6	✗
Nickeil Alexander-Walker▼	3PM	3.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	4	✗
Nickeil Alexander-Walker▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	40%	1	✓
Nickeil Alexander-Walker▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	30%	0	✗
Nickeil Alexander-Walker▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✓
Nickeil Alexander-Walker▼	PRA	27.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	34	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R26UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)6/2030%▼

P+A27UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Assists UNDER 4.5HIGH

This is the cleanest under on the board because his season average is 3.6 assists and his last-10 average is 3.0, both clearly below 4.5. The head-to-head sample also supports a lower-output game, and the line is sitting above his typical passing production.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Cedric Coward	1	5	4	40%	40%
Cam Spencer	1	3	2	100%	100%
GG Jackson	2	2	5	67%	67%
Ja Morant	1	2	4	50%	50%
Jaylen Wells	1	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 20.572%HIGH

Season scoring is 20.3 PPG, and the last-10 mark is 23.0, but his head-to-head average vs this opponent is only 9.33 PPG across 15 games. The last-5 run at 24.2 is above his season baseline, so this leans toward regression rather than continued overs.

reboundsUNDER 3.568%MEDIUM

He averages 3.4 rebounds on the season and 2.7 over the last 10, both below the 3.5 line. His rebound role is modest, and the recent trend is weaker than the season average.

assistsUNDER 4.574%HIGH

He sits at 3.6 assists per game for the season and 3.0 over the last 10, well under 4.5. Even with a 4.2 home split, the recent distribution supports the under.

threesUNDER 3.563%MEDIUM

He averages 3.12 made threes on the season and 3.6 over the last 5, but the 1.83 season standard deviation shows meaningful variance. The line still sits above his season mean, making the under the safer side.

stealsUNDER 1.570%HIGH

His season average is 1.3 steals, while the last 10 is 1.8, but that recent spike comes with volatility. Given the higher line of 1.5, the season mean still points to the under.

blocksOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.5 blocks per game on the season and 0.3 over the last 10, so this is a thin lean only. The season average supports a coin-flip style over, but confidence stays low because of the variance.

stocksUNDER 2.560%MEDIUM

His combined steals and blocks average is 1.82 on the season and 2.1 over the last 10, but the combined stat is volatile. A projected line above his season baseline would still make the under the more conservative play.

praUNDER 27.566%MEDIUM

He averages 27.3 PRA by season inputs here, with the last 5 at 30.2, so the recent run is above baseline. Because combo props are high-variance and his season level is right around this range, the under is the safer lean.

timelineUNDER 20.5 PTS