AI Model:

Jaylen Wells▼

MEM · SF

PPG

12.7

RPG

3.2

APG

1.6

L5 PPG

13.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.3

12.7

13.0

RPG-1.2

3.2

2.0

APG-0.8

1.6

0.8

SPG+0.3

0.9

1.2

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

UNDER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

13.5

MIN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIN: 19 pts

POR

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs POR: 24 pts

LAC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs LAC: 8 pts

BKN

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs BKN: 17 pts

PHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHI: 11 pts

DAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DAL: 23 pts

CHI

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs CHI: 16 pts

DEN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DEN: 11 pts

BOS

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs BOS: 6 pts

CHA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs CHA: 9 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 13.5DRAFTKINGS

81%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

69%

AST

UNDER 1.5

67%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

60%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

55%

P+R

UNDER 16.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.1

15.4

RPG

2.4

2.6

APG

1.6

1.2

vs ATL (H2H)3 games

PPG

14.3

RPG

3.0

APG

2.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
James Harden	3	25	53%	-5.6%	medium
CJ McCollum	4	21	58%	+3.1%	medium
Luka Dončić	3	21	63%	+11.9%	medium
Anthony Edwards	3	20	45%

Usage stays steady, but the scoring line still leans Under

Jaylen Wells has been a consistent starting wing at 26.5 MPG with 12.7 PPG, and his recent scoring has ticked up to 13.0 over the last 5 and 14.4 over the last 10. Even so, the more important signal for this spot is the market: multiple books are hanging 12.5 to 13.5 on points, and the value data strongly favors the Under at 13.5. With several teammate absences likely keeping him in a larger role, his floor is solid, but his recent trend is still down and his last game was only 9 points in 25 minutes.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.0(↑ from 12.7)

RPG

2.0(↓ from 3.2)

APG

0.8(↓ from 1.6)

3PM

2.0(→ from 1.9)

SPG

1.2(↑ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

Atlanta's opponent defense data shows a 116.52 defensive rating, pace of 100, scoring suppression of 0.27, and three suppression of -0.108. For defender context, the provided key defenders list includes Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Jalen Johnson, but there is no specific defender matchup data beyond those entries.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jaylen Wells▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	81%HIGH	2/2	50%	4	✓
Jaylen Wells▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	2	✓
Jaylen Wells▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	2	✗
Jaylen Wells▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	0	✗
Jaylen Wells▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	0	✗
Jaylen Wells▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✓
Jaylen Wells▼	P+R	16.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	6	✓

ML Scout Analysis

R+A4UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+A15OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%▼

P+R16UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Jaylen Wells

Points UNDER 13.5HIGH

This is the clearest +EV angle in the data, with a 11.4% edge and 21.98 EV per 100 at DraftKings. His season scoring average is 12.7, and the market is asking for 13.5 despite a recent dip in the last 5 and a down trend overall.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
CJ McCollum	2	6	3	25%	38%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	1	4	2	0%	0%
Jalen Johnson	1	2	3	50%	50%
Dyson Daniels	2	2	0	0%	0%
Corey Kispert	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 13.581%HIGH

The value data shows a 11.4% edge on the Under with our projected 63.3% win probability, and his season mean is only 12.66 PPG. Recent scoring is a bit higher, but the last 5 at 13.0 is still not enough to justify chasing the Over versus a 13.5 line.

reboundsUNDER 3.569%MEDIUM

He averages 3.21 rebounds on the season and only 2.3 over the last 5, which sits below the 3.5 number. The recent trend and season baseline both point slightly to the Under.

assistsUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.6 APG, but the last 5 has fallen to 0.8 and the last 10 is 0.9. With that kind of recent output, the Under is the safer side even against a low line.

threesOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.9 threes per game on the season and 2.6 over the last 10, so clearing 1.5 is well within range. The market is also supportive, though the edge is only modest.

stealsOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.9 steals and he has 1.2 over the last 5, so 0.5 is a low bar. The volatility is real, but the baseline is strong enough to prefer the Over.

stocksUNDER 1.555%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.03, and even his recent 1.2 stays below a 1.5 threshold. Because this is a higher-variance stat, the Under is the more conservative call.

prUNDER 16.563%MEDIUM

Using his season averages, points plus rebounds lands at 15.87, and his recent rebounds have slipped. The combo line is a little high relative to his baseline, so Under has the cleaner profile.

timelineUNDER 13.5 PTS