AI Model:

Jalen Johnson▼

ATL · PF

PPG

22.7

RPG

10.4

APG

8.0

L5 PPG

19.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.9

22.7

19.8

RPG-0.4

10.4

10.0

APG+1.2

8.0

9.2

SPG-0.1

1.3

1.2

BPG-0.5

0.5

0.0

UNDER 22.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

22.5

WAS

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs WAS: 5 pts

POR

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs POR: 8 pts

MIL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MIL: 20 pts

PHI

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs PHI: 35 pts

DAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs DAL: 27 pts

BKN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BKN: 21 pts

MIL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIL: 23 pts

ORL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ORL: 24 pts

DAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DAL: 17 pts

HOU

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs HOU: 14 pts

Over 22.5

Under 22.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 22.5FANDUEL

74%

REB

UNDER 10.5FANDUEL

60%

AST

UNDER 8.5FANDUEL

58%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

57%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

56%

PRA

UNDER 41.5FANDUEL

55%

R+A

UNDER 18.5FANDUEL

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

21.1

22.9

RPG

10.2

10.0

APG

8.4

7.9

vs MEM (H2H)4 games

PPG

14.8

RPG

8.8

APG

4.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Dominick Barlow	4	36	33%	-15.9%	medium
Miles Bridges	3	29	40%	-9.2%	medium
OG Anunoby	3	24	40%	-15.9%	medium
Tobias Harris	3	22	46%

Jalen Johnson brings elite all-around upside, but the points line looks a touch high

Johnson’s season production is strong across the board at 22.7 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 8.0 assists in 35.3 MPG, but his recent scoring has cooled to 19.8 PPG over the last 5 and 19.4 over the last 10. The matchup data is mixed: Atlanta is at home, where he averages 21.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG, and 8.4 APG, while the opponent is missing multiple rotation pieces, which helps his overall usage. Still, his head-to-head line vs this opponent is much lower at 14.75 PPG, 8.75 RPG, and 4.75 APG in 4 games, and the books have already shaded his points under. With the current form and line set, the clearest angle is to fade the scoring prop and stay cautious on the higher-variance combo markets.

Stat Trends

PPG

19.8(↓ from 22.7)

RPG

10.0(→ from 10.4)

APG

9.2(↑ from 8.0)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data for his main coverage, so there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on. The opponent’s defense has a 118.67 rating, pace of 100, and the absence list is significant, but the strongest quantified angle remains the market shading and his own recent production.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Jalen Johnson▼	Points	22.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	2/2	60%
Jalen Johnson▼	Rebounds	10.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	80%
Jalen Johnson▼	Assists	8.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Jalen Johnson▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	30%
Jalen Johnson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	60%
Jalen Johnson▼	PRA	41.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	60%
Jalen Johnson▼	R+A	18.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	70%

ML Scout Analysis

P+R32UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 5x8/1942%▼

P+A30UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x8/1942%▼

R+A17.5UNDER0%logisticAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x7/1937%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Johnson

Points UNDER 22.5HIGH

This is the cleanest play in the data: his season average is 22.7, but the last 5 and last 10 are both below the line at 19.8 and 19.4. The value table also flags strong under EV, including a 23.3% edge at FanDuel, making this the best combination of trend, line value, and projection.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
GG Jackson	1	6	2	100%	100%
Jaylen Wells	1	4	7	75%	88%
Jaren Jackson Jr.	1	3	0	0%	0%
Jock Landale	1	1	2	50%	50%
Ja Morant	1	1	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 22.574%HIGH

His season mean is 22.7 PPG, but the last 5 is down to 19.8 and last 10 to 19.4, which is below this line. Value data also shows a 23.3% edge on the under at FanDuel, with our projected under probability at 74.8%.

reboundsUNDER 10.560%MEDIUM

He averages 10.4 RPG on the season and 10.0 over the last 5, so 10.5 is slightly above his typical output. The under is supported by the listed value data and his recent rebound average of 8.3 over the last 10.

assistsUNDER 8.558%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 8.0 and last 10 is 7.8, both below the 8.5 line. Even with a home mean of 8.53, the under remains the better side based on the available value data and his recent trend.

threesUNDER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.62 threes on the season, but the under is still the preferred side in the provided value table. The line is close, so this is a lower-confidence fade rather than a strong edge.

stocksOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.78 stocks on the season and 1.6 over the last 10, both above 1.5. The variance is moderate, so this is a playable over but not a high-confidence one.

praUNDER 41.555%MEDIUM

The combo line is aggressive relative to his recent scoring dip and his lower head-to-head production vs this opponent. Because combo props carry more variance, confidence stays modest.

raUNDER 18.557%MEDIUM

His season rebounds plus assists sits at 18.4, essentially right on the line, while recent trends are softer in rebounds and assists separately. With combo variance, the under is slightly preferable.

timelineUNDER 22.5 PTS