AI Model:

GG Jackson—

MEM · PF

PPG

11.8

RPG

4.3

APG

1.4

L5 PPG

17.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.8

11.8

17.6

RPG-0.3

4.3

4.0

APG+0.6

1.4

2.0

SPG-0.6

0.6

0.0

BPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

OVER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

DAL

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DAL: 12 pts

IND

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs IND: 11 pts

MIN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIN: 12 pts

POR

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs POR: 20 pts

LAC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs LAC: 14 pts

BKN

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs BKN: 18 pts

PHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHI: 15 pts

DAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DAL: 20 pts

DEN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DEN: 16 pts

CHA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs CHA: 19 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 11.5

66%

REB

UNDER 4.5

58%

AST

OVER 1.5

54%

3PM

OVER 1

52%

BLK

OVER 0.5

57%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

56%

OVER 2

55%

PRA

OVER 17.5

50%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

17.9

15.3

RPG

5.9

5.8

APG

1.5

2.2

vs ATL (H2H)2 games

PPG

10.0

RPG

4.5

APG

2.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Amen Thompson	2	11	64%	+7.5%	low
Jerami Grant	3	10	67%	+6.0%	medium
Julius Randle	3	9	50%	-5.2%	medium
Desmond Bane	2	8	36%

Expanded role keeps GG Jackson in scoring range, but Atlanta matchup tempers the upside

GG Jackson is carrying a bigger offensive load with multiple Memphis starters out, and his recent production reflects that jump in usage. He’s averaging 15.7 PPG over his last 10 and 16.4 PPG over his last 20, well above his season mark of 11.8 PPG, while his minutes have climbed from 21.2 season-wide to 25.5 recently. The matchup is not an automatic boost, though, because Atlanta owns a 116.52 defensive rating and a 0.27 scoring suppression rate, and Jackson’s two-game history vs this opponent is only 10.0 PPG. Given the elevated role but some regression risk, his best angles are points and combo volume rather than chasing a ceiling game.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.6(↑ from 11.8)

RPG

4.0(→ from 4.3)

APG

2.0(↑ from 1.4)

Key Matchup

Atlanta has a 116.52 defensive rating and a 0.27 scoring suppression rate, which makes this a tougher scoring environment than a pure usage bump would suggest. Memphis is also dealing with multiple absences, so his role should stay elevated, but there is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
GG Jackson▼	Points	11.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	26	✓
GG Jackson▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	3	✓
GG Jackson▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	0	✗
GG Jackson▼	3PM	1	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	0%	2	✓
GG Jackson▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✗
GG Jackson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✓
GG Jackson▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	30%	4	✓
GG Jackson▼	PRA	17.5	OVER	50%MEDIUM	1/2	100%	29	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A19UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

R+A7UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

P+R22UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

GG Jackson

Points OVER 11.5MEDIUM

The biggest factor is role: he is at 15.7 PPG over the last 10 and 17.6 over the last 5, while Memphis has several high-usage scorers out. Atlanta’s defense adds some resistance, but the combination of minutes growth and usage makes points the clearest angle.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Johnson	1	4	17	60%	65%
Dyson Daniels	2	2	0	0%	0%
Corey Kispert	1	1	0	0%	0%
Christian Koloko	2	1	0	0%	0%
CJ McCollum	2	1	2	100%	100%

pointsOVER 11.566%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.8, and the absence-driven workload has pushed his recent scoring to 15.7 PPG over the last 10 and 17.6 over the last 5. Atlanta’s defense is a moderate drag, but the volume increase from Memphis injuries supports a modest OVER.

reboundsUNDER 4.558%MEDIUM

He averages 4.3 rebounds on the season and 4.0 over the last 5, with 4.5 in two games vs Atlanta. This is close to his baseline, and the recent surge has been more scoring-led than rebounding-led.

assistsOVER 1.554%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.4 APG, but he’s at 2.0 APG over the last 5 and 1.8 over the last 10 with more on-ball responsibility. The edge is modest because the role change is real, but the assist profile is still fairly volatile.

threesOVER 152%MEDIUM

He averages 1.09 made threes per game on the season and 1.17 away, with 1.0 at home. Recent makes have cooled to 0.8 over the last 5, so this is only a slight lean to the OVER.

blocksOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 blocks per game on the season and 1.1 over the last 10 and last 20. The recent shot-blocking stability gives this a reasonable floor despite normal variance.

stocksUNDER 1.556%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.39, and the recent means are 1.4 and 1.6, which is close but not comfortably above the line. With standard deviation at 1.13, this is a high-variance area and better suited to a slight UNDER lean.

turnoversOVER 255%MEDIUM

He is averaging 2.0 turnovers over the last 20 and 2.2 over the last 10, with a recent 2.0 over the last 5. The added usage from Memphis absences raises turnover risk enough to support the OVER.

praOVER 17.550%MEDIUM

His recent production suggests a higher usage path, but combo props carry extra variance and his season profile is still only 11.8/4.3/1.4. The recent run supports it, but this is not a high-confidence lane.

timelineOVER 11.5 PTS