AI Model:

Dyson Daniels▲

ATL · SF

PPG

11.7

RPG

6.6

APG

6.0

L5 PPG

14.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.9

11.7

14.6

RPG+0.4

6.6

7.0

APG-2.4

6.0

3.6

SPG+0.5

1.9

2.4

BPG-0.2

0.4

0.2

UNDER 13.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

13.5

WAS

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs WAS: 13 pts

POR

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs POR: 12 pts

MIL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MIL: 14 pts

PHI

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs PHI: 15 pts

DAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs DAL: 14 pts

MIL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIL: 8 pts

ORL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ORL: 15 pts

DAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DAL: 19 pts

HOU

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs HOU: 3 pts

GSW

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs GSW: 28 pts

Over 13.5

Under 13.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 13.5DRAFTKINGS

82%

AST

UNDER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

REB

UNDER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

76%

BLK

UNDER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

STL+BLK

OVER 2.5

71%

P+A

UNDER 19.5FANDUEL

64%

P+R

UNDER 20.5FANDUEL

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.4

11.7

RPG

7.3

5.4

APG

6.1

3.7

vs MEM (H2H)10 games

PPG

6.4

RPG

3.7

APG

3.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Brunson	3	25	50%	-3.3%	medium
Cade Cunningham	3	21	38%	-14.2%	medium
Tyrese Maxey	2	20	50%	-7.3%	low
Brandon Ingram	4	18	83%

Daniels’ all-around production is solid, but the under prices look stronger than the ceiling

Dyson Daniels is in good recent form, with his last 10 averaging 14.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.9 stocks, but his season baseline is still 11.7 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 6.0 assists. He gets a home boost, especially in rebounds (7.3 home vs 5.4 away) and stocks (2.7 home vs 1.6 away), but his opponent history is much quieter at 6.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 3.4 assists over 10 games. With Memphis listed at 118.67 defensive rating and a 100 pace, plus Daniels' passing and scoring lines sitting above his season means, the safer lean is toward under value rather than chasing the recent scoring spike.

Stat Trends

PPG

14.6(↑ from 11.7)

RPG

7.0(→ from 6.6)

APG

3.6(↓ from 6.0)

Stocks

2.6(↑ from 2.3)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond Jaylen Wells and GG Jackson being listed, and the available data does not identify who will defend Daniels. Memphis is allowing play in a 100 pace game with a 118.67 defensive rating, but Daniels' historical output versus this opponent is just 6.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 3.4 assists across 10 games.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Dyson Daniels▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	1/2	40%	12	✓
Dyson Daniels▼	Assists	6.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	4	✓
Dyson Daniels▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	5	✓
Dyson Daniels▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	76%HIGH	1/2	80%	1	✗
Dyson Daniels▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	70%	1	✗
Dyson Daniels▼	STL+BLK	2.5	OVER	71%HIGH	—	50%	2	✗
Dyson Daniels▼	P+A	19.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	16	✓
Dyson Daniels▼	P+R	20.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	17	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA26.5UNDER23%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

PTS12.5UNDER21%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+R20OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

P+A17.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

REB7OVER0%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Scorecard changed +2.0▼

3PA2UNDER38%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)5/2025%▼

FTA0.5UNDER8%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

R+A13UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

AST4UNDER9%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

STL2UNDER35%gbt_stealsAvoid (7/20)7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Dyson Daniels

Points UNDER 13.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value on the board because the offered line sits above Daniels' season mean of 11.7 and last 20 mean of 11.5, while the value data marks the under as the best side with a 18.6% edge. His matchup history against Memphis is also low at 6.4 points per game over 10 games, which reinforces the under despite the recent scoring spike.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Ja Morant	1	6	2	33%	33%
Cam Spencer	1	2	0	0%	0%
John Konchar	1	1	0	0%	0%
Vince Williams Jr.	1	1	0	0%	0%
Jaren Jackson Jr.	1	1	3	50%	50%

pointsUNDER 13.582%HIGH

His season mean is 11.7 points and his last 20 is 11.5, while the 13.5 line is above both. The value data also shows the UNDER as the best side with a 18.6% edge and 34.71 EV per 100.

assistsUNDER 6.566%MEDIUM

Daniels averages 5.97 assists on the season and 5.3 over the last 10, both below 6.5. The recent drop to 3.6 assists over the last 5 adds some support, but the variance is high enough to keep confidence moderate.

reboundsUNDER 7.563%MEDIUM

He is at 6.64 rebounds per game for the season and 7.1 over the last 10, so 7.5 is still a touch above his normal range. His home split is better at 7.3, but that still does not clear the line cleanly.

stealsOVER 1.576%HIGH

Daniels averages 1.9 steals on the season and 2.4 over the last 5 and last 10, which is well above 1.5. He has also cleared 2+ steals frequently in the recent game logs.

blocksUNDER 0.574%HIGH

His season average is only 0.4 blocks and his last 5 is 0.2, so the over needs a made block to cash. The profile is much stronger for steals than blocks.

stocksOVER 2.571%HIGH

He averages 2.34 stocks on the season, 2.9 over the last 10, and 2.6 over the last 5, so a 2.5-type projection is reachable. The home split of 2.7 stocks per game supports the over, though variance keeps confidence from going higher.

paUNDER 19.564%MEDIUM

Points plus assists combine to 17.7 on season-based averages (11.7 + 6.0), below 19.5. His recent scoring is up, but the assist trend is down enough to make the under the safer angle.

prUNDER 20.562%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds baseline is 18.3, and even the last 10 is only 21.2. This sits close enough to the trend line that the under is only a moderate lean.

timelineUNDER 13.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Daniels’ all-around production is solid, but the under prices look stronger than the ceiling

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 13.5 PTS