Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Green | 6 | 27 | 56% | -7.8% | medium |
| Max Christie | 4 | 16 | 43% | -16.7% | medium |
| Amen Thompson | 3 | 14 | 68% | +19.0% | medium |
| Sam Hauser | 5 | 14 | 100% |
CJ McCollum is averaging 18.7 PPG, 3.4 RPG, and 3.7 APG on the season, with his last 10 games sitting close at 18.4 PPG and 4.5 APG. His home scoring is notably lower at 16.5 PPG versus 23.3 PPG away, which matters here since he is at home, while his last 5 scoring bump to 20.6 PPG looks a bit above his baseline. The matchup environment is favorable with Memphis allowing a 118.67 defensive rating, and McCollum has also produced 23.05 PPG and 5.05 APG in 20 games versus this opponent. Still, the over bias caution plus his strong under prices on several lines make the cleaner angles the lower-scoring props.
Memphis has a 118.67 defensive rating and 100 pace, which creates a decent scoring environment, and the opponent absences include several missing rotation pieces. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond Jaylen Wells, so the analysis should not assume a targeted individual coverage edge.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CJ McCollum▼ | Points | 18.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 60% | 15 | ✓ |
CJ McCollum▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | 80% | 4 | ✗ |
CJ McCollum▼ | Assists | 3.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 60% | 9 | ✓ |
CJ McCollum▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | 10% | 3 | ✓ |
CJ McCollum▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
CJ McCollum▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 78%HIGH | 50% | 0 | ✓ |
CJ McCollum▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
CJ McCollum▼ | Turnovers | 2 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | 30% | 2 | ✗ |
CJ McCollum▼ | PRA | 25.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 30% | 28 | ✗ |
CJ McCollum▼ | P+A | 22.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | 40% | 24 | ✗ |
CJ McCollum▼ | P+R | 22.5 | UNDER | 70%HIGH | 70% | 19 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest number relative to his profile: 3.4 RPG on the season, 3.5 RPG at home, and only 2.0 RPG over the last 5. The line sits right on top of his median range, but the recent dip and lack of strong rebound upside make the under the most stable angle.
| medium |
| Kon Knueppel | 4 | 14 | 57% | -2.4% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Wells | 3 | 8 | 9 | 33% | 38% |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 3 | 7 | 6 | 50% | 50% |
| Cam Spencer | 3 | 6 | 6 | 50% | 75% |
| Vince Williams Jr. | 1 | 4 | 3 | 33% | 50% |
| Cedric Coward | 3 | 4 | 3 | 50% | 75% |
His season mean is 18.7 PPG, and his home mean is only 16.5 PPG across 13 games. The last 5 at 20.6 PPG is higher, but not enough to fully override the stronger season and home baseline.
McCollum averages 3.4 RPG on the season and 3.5 RPG at home, both right around the line but slightly below the over expectation. His last 5 rebound average is just 2.0, which supports the under.
He averages 3.7 APG on the season, 3.8 APG over the last 5, and 4.9 APG away, with 5.05 APG in 20 games versus Memphis. The edge is modest, but the usage and opponent history support a small lean over.
He averages 2.45 made threes per game on the season and 2.78 at home, which is close enough to a projected 2.5 line to keep the over in play. His recent 1.8 last-10 average is a drag, so confidence stays moderate.
McCollum averages 0.8 steals on the season and 0.9 over the last 20, which clears a 0.5 line. Variance is still high, so this is a thin over.
His season average is 0.4 blocks and the last 10 is 0.7, but blocks remain a low-volume stat for him. Given the volatility and the under price at this line, the under is the safer side.
He averages 1.2 stocks on the season and 1.5 over the last 10, so the line is slightly ahead of his baseline. The recent uptick is real, but not enough for strong over confidence.
He is at 2.0 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 2.2 in the last 10, with 2.1 at home. That makes a 2.0 projected line playable to the over, though only with modest confidence.
His season baseline projects to roughly 25.5 PRA using 18.7 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, but combo props carry added variance. With the home scoring dip and conservative combo-prop guidance, the under gets the lean.
He averages 22.4 points plus assists on the season (18.7 + 3.7), which is just under the line. The last 5 has been stronger, but season average and home scoring both point slightly down.
His season points plus rebounds sum to 22.1, below this line, and his home scoring is lower than his season mark. Rebounds have not shown enough upside recently to push this over.