AI Model:

CJ McCollum—

ATL · PG

PPG

18.7

RPG

3.4

APG

3.7

L5 PPG

20.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.9

18.7

20.6

RPG-1.4

3.4

2.0

APG+0.1

3.7

3.8

SPG+0.2

0.8

1.0

BPG+0.6

0.4

1.0

UNDER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

18.5

POR

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs POR: 19 pts

MIL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MIL: 18 pts

PHI

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs PHI: 17 pts

DAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs DAL: 13 pts

BKN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BKN: 14 pts

MIL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIL: 30 pts

ORL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ORL: 9 pts

DAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DAL: 24 pts

HOU

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs HOU: 17 pts

GSW

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs GSW: 23 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 18.5STAKE

67%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

72%

AST

OVER 3.5STAKE

58%

3PM

OVER 2.5

60%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

78%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

61%

OVER 2

55%

PRA

UNDER 25.5

64%

P+A

UNDER 22.5STAKE

63%

P+R

UNDER 22.5STAKE

70%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.5

23.3

RPG

3.5

2.3

APG

3.4

4.9

vs MEM (H2H)20 games

PPG

23.1

RPG

4.0

APG

5.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
AJ Green	6	27	56%	-7.8%	medium
Max Christie	4	16	43%	-16.7%	medium
Amen Thompson	3	14	68%	+19.0%	medium
Sam Hauser	5	14	100%

McCollum’s scoring profile is solid, but the home split keeps the ceiling in check

CJ McCollum is averaging 18.7 PPG, 3.4 RPG, and 3.7 APG on the season, with his last 10 games sitting close at 18.4 PPG and 4.5 APG. His home scoring is notably lower at 16.5 PPG versus 23.3 PPG away, which matters here since he is at home, while his last 5 scoring bump to 20.6 PPG looks a bit above his baseline. The matchup environment is favorable with Memphis allowing a 118.67 defensive rating, and McCollum has also produced 23.05 PPG and 5.05 APG in 20 games versus this opponent. Still, the over bias caution plus his strong under prices on several lines make the cleaner angles the lower-scoring props.

Stat Trends

PPG

20.6(↑ from 18.7)

APG

3.8(→ from 3.7)

RPG

2.0(↓ from 3.4)

Key Matchup

Memphis has a 118.67 defensive rating and 100 pace, which creates a decent scoring environment, and the opponent absences include several missing rotation pieces. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond Jaylen Wells, so the analysis should not assume a targeted individual coverage edge.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Actual	Result
CJ McCollum▼	Points	18.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	60%	15	✓
CJ McCollum▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	80%	4	✗
CJ McCollum▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	60%	9	✓
CJ McCollum▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	10%	3	✓
CJ McCollum▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	70%	1	✓
CJ McCollum▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	50%	0	✓
CJ McCollum▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	60%	1	✓
CJ McCollum▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	55%MEDIUM	30%	2	✗
CJ McCollum▼	PRA	25.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	30%	28	✗
CJ McCollum▼	P+A	22.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	40%	24	✗
CJ McCollum▼	P+R	22.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	70%	19	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A23OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

P+R21.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

R+A7.5UNDER0%logisticAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

CJ McCollum

Rebounds UNDER 3.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number relative to his profile: 3.4 RPG on the season, 3.5 RPG at home, and only 2.0 RPG over the last 5. The line sits right on top of his median range, but the recent dip and lack of strong rebound upside make the under the most stable angle.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jaylen Wells	3	8	9	33%	38%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	3	7	6	50%	50%
Cam Spencer	3	6	6	50%	75%
Vince Williams Jr.	1	4	3	33%	50%
Cedric Coward	3	4	3	50%	75%

pointsUNDER 18.567%MEDIUM

His season mean is 18.7 PPG, and his home mean is only 16.5 PPG across 13 games. The last 5 at 20.6 PPG is higher, but not enough to fully override the stronger season and home baseline.

reboundsUNDER 3.572%HIGH

McCollum averages 3.4 RPG on the season and 3.5 RPG at home, both right around the line but slightly below the over expectation. His last 5 rebound average is just 2.0, which supports the under.

assistsOVER 3.558%MEDIUM

He averages 3.7 APG on the season, 3.8 APG over the last 5, and 4.9 APG away, with 5.05 APG in 20 games versus Memphis. The edge is modest, but the usage and opponent history support a small lean over.

threesOVER 2.560%MEDIUM

He averages 2.45 made threes per game on the season and 2.78 at home, which is close enough to a projected 2.5 line to keep the over in play. His recent 1.8 last-10 average is a drag, so confidence stays moderate.

stealsOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

McCollum averages 0.8 steals on the season and 0.9 over the last 20, which clears a 0.5 line. Variance is still high, so this is a thin over.

blocksUNDER 0.578%HIGH

His season average is 0.4 blocks and the last 10 is 0.7, but blocks remain a low-volume stat for him. Given the volatility and the under price at this line, the under is the safer side.

stocksUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 stocks on the season and 1.5 over the last 10, so the line is slightly ahead of his baseline. The recent uptick is real, but not enough for strong over confidence.

turnoversOVER 255%MEDIUM

He is at 2.0 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 2.2 in the last 10, with 2.1 at home. That makes a 2.0 projected line playable to the over, though only with modest confidence.

praUNDER 25.564%MEDIUM

His season baseline projects to roughly 25.5 PRA using 18.7 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, but combo props carry added variance. With the home scoring dip and conservative combo-prop guidance, the under gets the lean.

paUNDER 22.563%MEDIUM

He averages 22.4 points plus assists on the season (18.7 + 3.7), which is just under the line. The last 5 has been stronger, but season average and home scoring both point slightly down.

prUNDER 22.570%HIGH

His season points plus rebounds sum to 22.1, below this line, and his home scoring is lower than his season mark. Rebounds have not shown enough upside recently to push this over.

timelineUNDER 18.5 PTS