AI Model:

Wendell Carter Jr.▼

ORL · C

PPG

11.9

RPG

7.6

APG

2.1

L5 PPG

15.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.1

11.9

15.0

RPG-0.4

7.6

7.2

APG+0.1

2.1

2.2

SPG+0.2

0.8

1.0

BPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

12.5

DET

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DET: 4 pts

DAL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DAL: 15 pts

MIN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIN: 10 pts

MIL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIL: 9 pts

CLE

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs CLE: 11 pts

WAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs WAS: 19 pts

MIA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIA: 15 pts

ATL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ATL: 17 pts

OKC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs OKC: 11 pts

LAL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs LAL: 13 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5STAKE

58%

REB

OVER 7.5STAKE

56%

AST

OVER 1.5STAKE

60%

3PM

UNDER 1

55%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

55%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

52%

OVER 1.5

57%

PRA

UNDER 19.5STAKE

64%

P+A

UNDER 16.5STAKE

61%

P+R

UNDER 15.5STAKE

63%

R+A

UNDER 9.5STAKE

68%

UNDER 0.5

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.4

11.6

RPG

8.3

8.1

APG

2.1

vs IND (H2H)14 games

PPG

11.9

RPG

11.6

APG

1.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Bam Adebayo	5	42	46%	-7.1%	medium
Nikola Vučević	3	24	83%	+23.2%	medium
Jalen Duren	4	22	42%	-10.1%	medium
Evan Mobley	4	19	47%

Usage bump keeps Wendell Carter Jr. live, but scoring still sits near his season baseline

Wendell Carter Jr. is trending down overall, but his last 5 games still show 15.0 PPG on 31.0 MPG, above his 11.9 season scoring average. With Anthony Black and Franz Wagner out, Orlando has extra usage to spread around, which supports his points and combo props, though his rebounding profile remains steadier than his scoring. The matchup is not especially restrictive on paper, but the key defensive matchup data is limited, and his season-long numbers suggest his safest lane is around his usual 7-8 rebound range rather than chasing a big scoring spike. Given the over-bias warning and his volatility, the best angles are the lower-risk unders on inflated combo lines and a modest lean to rebounds over the softer number.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.0(↑ from 11.9)

RPG

7.2(→ from 7.6)

APG

2.2(→ from 2.1)

Stocks

1.4(→ from 1.4)

Key Matchup

Opponent defense data shows a 120.44 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring suppression of 1.157, which does not point to a runaway scoring environment. There is no specific defender matchup data that cleanly isolates one stopper here, so the assessment leans more on the team-level numbers and his own role-based volume.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	17	✗
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	5	✗
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	2	✓
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	3PM	1	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	1	✓
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✓
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✗
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	Turnovers	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	30%	2	✓
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	PRA	19.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	24	✗
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	P+A	16.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	19	✗
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	P+R	15.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	22	✗
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	R+A	9.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	7	✓
Wendell Carter Jr.▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PTS13.5UNDER22%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA21.5UNDER20%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

AST2UNDER51%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)6/2030%Confidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

3PA2UNDER41%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

P+R20OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A15UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

REB6OVER12%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

FTM3UNDER24%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

FTA4UNDER5%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

Featured Pick

Wendell Carter Jr.

Rebounds OVER 7.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest blend of role, consistency, and price: he averages 7.6 rebounds for the season, 7.9 at home, and 8.2 over the last 20. Compared with his scoring and combo props, the rebound line is the least dependent on a hot shooting night and fits his steadier profile.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jay Huff	3	10	0	0%	0%
Micah Potter	3	8	5	100%	125%
Andrew Nembhard	3	4	15	78%	83%
Pascal Siakam	3	4	15	75%	81%
Tony Bradley	2	3	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 12.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.9 PPG and his last 20 is 10.9, which is below this line. The last 5 at 15.0 is a hot stretch, but with the over-bias warning and a season standard deviation of 5.17, this is not a strong over for me.

reboundsOVER 7.556%MEDIUM

He averages 7.6 rebounds on the season, 7.9 at home, and 8.2 over the last 20, so the 7.5 line is reachable. The profile is much steadier than his scoring, making this the cleanest positive lean.

assistsOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season average is 2.1 APG, last 10 is 2.3, and he has hit 2.2 APG over the last 5. The line is low enough that his normal playmaking workload clears it often.

threesUNDER 155%MEDIUM

He averages 1.02 threes per game on the season, but only 0.8 over the last 5 and 0.6 over the last 20. That recent dip makes the over less attractive at a full 1.0 line.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 steals on the season and 1.0 over the last 5, so a 0.5 line is playable. Variance is still high, so confidence stays modest.

blocksUNDER 0.555%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.6 blocks, but the last 5 is only 0.4 and his recent run has not been spike-heavy. With the line sitting at 0.5, the under is slightly cleaner than the over.

stocksOVER 1.552%MEDIUM

He averages 1.45 stocks on the season and 1.8 over the last 10, so this is close to his normal range. The volatility is meaningful, so this remains a low-confidence lean.

turnoversOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

His recent turnover rates are 1.4 over the last 5 and 1.2 over the last 20, but his role as a starting big still puts him in range for turnovers. This is not a strong edge, but the higher-usage context keeps it live.

praUNDER 19.564%MEDIUM

His season baseline math is 11.9 + 7.6 + 2.1 = 21.6, but the line is elevated and combo props are historically volatile. With his recent scoring trend cooling from the 15.0 last-5 mark and the over-bias caution, I prefer the under side here.

paUNDER 16.561%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists total is 14.0, and even the last 5 is just 17.2. The line sits above his season mean by a noticeable margin, making the under the safer play.

prUNDER 15.563%MEDIUM

Season points plus rebounds is 19.5, but his scoring has been the more unstable component and the line is priced aggressively. Because combo props carry added variance, I would rather avoid the over.

raUNDER 9.568%MEDIUM

His season rebounds plus assists is 9.7, so this is close to fair but still slightly inflated relative to his usual output. With combo volatility and no clear pace boost from the data, the under is the better lean.

double_doubleUNDER 0.562%MEDIUM

He is capable of a double-double, but his season averages sit at 11.9 points and 7.6 rebounds, meaning he often needs both categories to spike together. The recent game log shows only a couple of 10+ rebound outcomes, so the under is more likely.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Usage bump keeps Wendell Carter Jr. live, but scoring still sits near his season baseline

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 12.5 PTS