AI Model:

Paolo Banchero▼

ORL · PF

PPG

22.2

RPG

8.5

APG

5.1

L5 PPG

22.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.4

22.2

22.6

RPG-1.3

8.5

7.2

APG+0.5

5.1

5.6

SPG+0.3

0.7

1.0

BPG+0.2

0.6

0.8

UNDER 25.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

25.5

DAL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DAL: 16 pts

MIN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIN: 25 pts

MIL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIL: 33 pts

CLE

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs CLE: 25 pts

WAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs WAS: 18 pts

MIA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIA: 27 pts

ATL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ATL: 18 pts

OKC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs OKC: 32 pts

CHA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CHA: 20 pts

LAL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs LAL: 16 pts

Over 25.5

Under 25.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 25.5FANDUEL

67%

REB

UNDER 8.5FANDUEL

58%

AST

UNDER 5.5FANDUEL

60%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

55%

STL

OVER 0.5FANDUEL

56%

BLK

OVER 0.5FANDUEL

55%

PRA

UNDER 40.5FANDUEL

61%

P+A

UNDER 31.5FANDUEL

59%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

21.6

25.7

RPG

8.1

8.6

APG

5.4

5.7

vs IND (H2H)8 games

PPG

28.3

RPG

7.4

APG

3.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Johnson	3	21	50%	+0.3%	medium
Miles Bridges	3	18	50%	-9.1%	medium
Pascal Siakam	3	18	59%	+4.1%	medium
Scottie Barnes	3	18	50%

Banchero’s usage is still elite, but the scoring line is inflated

Paolo Banchero is producing 22.2 PPG, 8.5 RPG, and 5.1 APG this season while logging 34.9 MPG, and his recent form is slightly below that baseline with a "down" trend. His last-10 scoring sits at 23.0 PPG, and the provided value data shows the cleanest edge is still on points at lower market numbers, while the current 25.5-point line is much tougher to clear. The matchup data also points to a defense allowing 120.44 def rating, but his home scoring split is only 21.6 PPG versus 25.7 away, which nudges him away from a big home scoring over. With Anthony Black, Franz Wagner, and Jonathan Isaac out, his role remains strong, but the combination of inflated pricing and turnover-heavy recent games keeps the ceiling in check.

Stat Trends

PPG

22.6(→ from 22.2)

RPG

7.2(↓ from 8.5)

APG

5.6(↑ from 5.1)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. The opponent defense numbers are the main indicator here: a 120.44 defensive rating and 100 pace suggest a playable environment, but the provided matchup is not enough to justify chasing an aggressive over without a better price.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Paolo Banchero▼	Points	25.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	39	✗
Paolo Banchero▼	Rebounds	8.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	4	✓
Paolo Banchero▼	Assists	5.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	6	✗
Paolo Banchero▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	4	✗
Paolo Banchero▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	40%	1	✓
Paolo Banchero▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Paolo Banchero▼	PRA	40.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	49	✗
Paolo Banchero▼	P+A	31.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	45	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R32OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

PTS24UNDER9%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼

FTA8.5OVER1%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

PRA39.5UNDER38%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST5.5UNDER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

3PA3.5UNDER46%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 5x10/2050%▼

REB8UNDER8%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

P+A29UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

FTM7UNDER21%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A13UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

3PM1UNDER43%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)UNDER 7x5/2025%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

Featured Pick

Paolo Banchero

Assists UNDER 5.5MEDIUM

His season average is 5.1 APG and last-10 is 5.2, both below the 5.5 line. The value-prop data also shows the UNDER as the best side with a positive edge at multiple books, making this the cleanest conservative play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Pascal Siakam	3	18	27	50%	59%
Jarace Walker	3	4	5	67%	83%
Aaron Nesmith	3	4	9	43%	64%
Andrew Nembhard	3	3	4	100%	100%
Jay Huff	3	3	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 25.567%MEDIUM

His season mean is 22.2 PPG and last-10 is 23.0, both below 25.5. The available value data also shows the best points edge only at 23.5, not at this higher line.

reboundsUNDER 8.558%MEDIUM

He averages 8.5 RPG on the season and 8.6 over the last 10, so 8.5 is right on the number and not a strong over spot. The season standard deviation is 3.29, making this a volatile line, but the home split is only 8.1 RPG.

assistsUNDER 5.560%MEDIUM

Season assists are 5.1 and recent assists are 5.2, both below 5.5. The value props also flag UNDER at 5.5 with positive edge, which supports the lower side.

threesUNDER 1.555%MEDIUM

He averages 1.17 made threes on the season and 1.3 in the last 10, still short of 1.5. The recent bump is not enough to override the season baseline given his 0.305 three-point percentage.

stealsOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 steals per game this season and 1.0 over the last 5, so 0.5 is a reachable threshold. The recent game logs also show multiple steals games, including 3 steals on 2026-03-21.

blocksOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 blocks per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, slightly favoring the over. His recent block production has been steady enough to support a 0.5 line.

praUNDER 40.561%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 35.8 using the provided means, and the recent combination of 23.0 PPG, 8.6 RPG, and 5.2 APG still projects below 40.5. Combo props are higher variance, so the under is the more conservative side.

paUNDER 31.559%MEDIUM

Points plus assists season average is 27.3, with recent form around 28.2, both below 31.5. The line is steep relative to his established production.

timelineUNDER 25.5 PTS