AI Model:

Jarace Walker—

IND · SF

PPG

11.5

RPG

5.1

APG

2.4

L5 PPG

15.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.3

11.5

15.8

RPG+1.5

5.1

6.6

APG+1.6

2.4

4.0

SPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

BPG+0.1

0.3

0.4

UNDER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

14.5

LAC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs LAC: 17 pts

LAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAL: 10 pts

POR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs POR: 14 pts

SAC

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAC: 8 pts

PHX

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs PHX: 12 pts

NYK

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NYK: 18 pts

MIL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIL: 14 pts

NYK

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs NYK: 16 pts

POR

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs POR: 10 pts

SAS

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs SAS: 21 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 14.5FANDUEL

79%

REB

UNDER 5.5FANDUEL

67%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

58%

P+R

UNDER 21.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.9

15.2

RPG

7.0

7.4

APG

3.2

3.9

vs ORL (H2H)8 games

PPG

7.3

RPG

3.1

APG

1.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Brandon Ingram	4	14	59%	+14.2%	medium
Khris Middleton	2	11	64%	+15.0%	low
Bilal Coulibaly	3	8	50%	+7.9%	medium
Tristan da Silva	3	7	20%

Walker’s elevated role supports points, but the market still leans to the under

Jarace Walker’s recent usage has been stronger than his season baseline, with 15.8 PPG, 6.6 RPG, and 4.0 APG over his last 5 while playing 33.6 MPG. That said, his season averages are still much lower at 11.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2.4 assists, and the data shows some regression risk after the recent spike. The matchup context is mixed: Orlando has a 114.14 defensive rating and negative scoring/three suppression, while Indiana is also missing Bennedict Mathurin, which helps Walker’s role. Even with the minutes bump, the most attractive angle is still to fade inflated lines rather than chase the recent hot stretch.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.8(↑ from 11.5)

RPG

6.6(↑ from 5.1)

APG

4.0(↑ from 2.4)

Key Matchup

Orlando’s defense profile is a negative for scoring efficiency, with a 114.14 defensive rating and scoring/three suppression noted in the data. There is also no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the analysis should not guess a primary matchup.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jarace Walker▼	Points	14.5	UNDER	79%HIGH	2/2	60%	20	✗
Jarace Walker▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	5	✓
Jarace Walker▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✗
Jarace Walker▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✓
Jarace Walker▼	P+R	21.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	25	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS15.5UNDER6%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)10/1953%▼

REB5.5OVER41%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)12/1963%▼

PRA25.5UNDER17%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)11/1958%▼

P+R22.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)8/1942%▼

P+A19OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)10/1953%▼

AST3.5UNDER19%gbt_assistsAvoid (6/20)10/1953%▼

3PM1.5OVER13%gbt_three_pmAvoid (6/20)OVER 7x13/1968%▼

R+A11UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (6/20)UNDER 5x7/1937%▼

3PA5UNDER27%gbtAvoid (5/20)9/1947%▼

FTM2UNDER26%gbtAvoid (5/20)7/1937%▼

FTA3UNDER20%gbtAvoid (5/20)9/1947%▼

Featured Pick

Jarace Walker

Points UNDER 14.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number relative to the data: his season scoring average is 11.5, the last 10 is 14.0, and the value table shows strong UNDER support on the 14.5 and 15.5 points lines. The recent minutes bump is real, but the line still asks him to sustain a pace above his longer-form production, which is a tougher ask against Orlando’s defensive setup.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Tristan da Silva	3	7	2	20%	20%
Paolo Banchero	3	5	10	67%	83%
Jamal Cain	2	4	2	33%	33%
Jase Richardson	2	2	3	100%	150%
Desmond Bane	3	2	4	67%	67%

pointsUNDER 14.579%HIGH

His season mean is 11.46 points, and even with recent growth the last 10 is 14.0, still below this line. The value data also flags UNDER with a 20.6% edge and 36.9 EV per 100 at DraftKings on the 15.5 line, reinforcing the fade.

reboundsUNDER 5.567%MEDIUM

Walker’s season rebounding mean is 5.14, which sits just below the line, and his recent rise to 6.6 over the last 5 is not enough to ignore the season baseline. The under is supported by the odds setup and his away average of 7.4 is balanced by a lower home mean of 7.0 and recent variance.

assistsOVER 2.561%MEDIUM

His recent assist rate is 4.0 over the last 5 and 3.5 over the last 10, well above the season mean of 2.43. With Bennedict Mathurin out, the usage/minutes bump makes 3+ assists more realistic than his season average alone suggests.

threesOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

Walker averages 1.71 made threes per game on the season and 2.0 over the last 5, with 2.8 fg3m per game recently. Since the line is only 1.5 and his volume has held up, the over is playable despite Orlando’s three suppression.

prUNDER 21.564%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds baseline is about 16.60, and the recent jump to a stronger scoring/rebounding stretch still leaves this line demanding a high-output game. Combo props carry more variance, so the safer lean is under.

timelineUNDER 14.5 PTS