AI Model:

Jalen Suggs—

ORL · PG

PPG

13.8

RPG

3.8

APG

5.3

L5 PPG

11.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.0

13.8

11.8

RPG+0.4

3.8

4.2

APG-0.5

5.3

4.8

SPG-0.7

1.9

1.2

BPG-0.1

0.7

0.6

OVER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

14.5

DAL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DAL: 17 pts

MIN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIN: 14 pts

MIL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIL: 20 pts

CLE

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs CLE: 12 pts

WAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs WAS: 28 pts

MIA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIA: 14 pts

ATL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ATL: 8 pts

OKC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs OKC: 14 pts

CHA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CHA: 9 pts

LAL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs LAL: 14 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

REB

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

3PM

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

STL

OVER 1.5

63%

BLK

OVER 0.5

54%

STL+BLK

UNDER 3

57%

OVER 2.5

61%

P+A

OVER 19.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

P+R

OVER 18.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

13.5

12.4

RPG

3.9

3.8

APG

6.8

4.1

vs IND (H2H)12 games

PPG

13.6

RPG

3.5

APG

4.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Brunson	4	20	62%	+15.3%	medium
Norman Powell	5	12	65%	+9.6%	medium
De'Aaron Fox	2	11	32%	-14.7%	low
Donovan Mitchell	3	11	44%

Suggs has a boosted usage path with multiple Orlando absences

Jalen Suggs is at 13.8 PPG, 5.3 APG, and 3.8 RPG on the season, and his minutes have climbed to 30.1 in his last 10 games. With Anthony Black (15.5 PPG, 3.8 APG), Franz Wagner (21.3 PPG, 3.6 APG), and Jonathan Isaac out, Suggs should continue to absorb extra usage and creation responsibilities. The matchup is also workable: Indiana has a 120.44 defensive rating and his home splits are stronger than his away numbers, especially for assists and stocks. His recent scoring has been mixed, so the best angle is to lean on the minutes/role bump rather than chasing an inflated points ceiling.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.8(↓ from 13.8)

APG

4.8(↓ from 5.3)

RPG

4.2(↑ from 3.8)

Stocks

1.8(↓ from 2.6)

Key Matchup

Indiana’s defensive rating is 120.44, and no specific defender matchup data is available beyond the listed key defenders. Orlando’s home splits are stronger than his away splits, which supports his points, assists, and stocks outlook.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Jalen Suggs▼	Points	14.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	1/2	30%
Jalen Suggs▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Jalen Suggs▼	Assists	5.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Jalen Suggs▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	50%
Jalen Suggs▼	Steals	1.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Jalen Suggs▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	50%
Jalen Suggs▼	STL+BLK	3	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	100%
Jalen Suggs▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	50%
Jalen Suggs▼	P+A	19.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Jalen Suggs▼	P+R	18.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%

ML Scout Analysis

PTS13.5UNDER20%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

3PA5.5UNDER30%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

PRA22.5UNDER8%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

P+R17UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

REB4UNDER28%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)6/2030%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

STL2UNDER51%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (10/20)5/2025%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 5x10/2050%▼

P+A19UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

AST6OVER27%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 5x8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PM2UNDER14%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

FTM1UNDER24%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA1UNDER1%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Suggs

Points OVER 14.5HIGH

This is the strongest blend of role, minutes, and pricing. He is averaging 13.83 PPG on the season and 15.0 over the last 10, while Orlando’s teammate absences should keep his usage elevated.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Bennedict Mathurin	1	3	7	100%	150%
Ben Sheppard	1	1	0	0%	0%
T.J. McConnell	1	1	0	0%	0%
Aaron Nesmith	1	1	0	0%	0%
Andrew Nembhard	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 14.567%MEDIUM

Season mean is 13.83 and last 10 is 15.0, while teammate absences create a clear usage bump. The 14.5 line is reachable, but recent last-5 scoring at 11.8 keeps this from being a high-confidence over.

reboundsOVER 3.558%MEDIUM

He averages 3.79 rebounds for the season and 4.0 at home, with 4.2 in the last 5. The edge is modest, so this is a lower-confidence over.

assistsUNDER 5.560%MEDIUM

His season assist mean is 5.26 and last 10 is 4.9, both below the 5.5 line. Even with extra minutes, the current pricing is a little high relative to his average distribution.

threesOVER 2.555%MEDIUM

He averages 2.0 made threes on the season and 2.3 over the last 10, with 2.3 at home. The line is slightly above his mean, but the recent volume supports a cautious over.

stealsOVER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.9 steals on the season and 1.7 over the last 10, which is well above a 1.5 line. His defensive event production makes this one of the cleaner overs.

blocksOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 blocks on the season and 0.5 over the last 10. This is playable, but the volatility is high for a blocks prop.

stocksUNDER 357%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.6 and last 10 is 2.2, both below 3.0. The prop is inflated relative to his typical combined steal/block output.

turnoversOVER 2.561%MEDIUM

He averages 2.6 turnovers in both the recent and season samples. With added ball-handling due to absences, turnover risk stays elevated.

paOVER 19.556%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists profile sits right around this range, and the minutes increase helps. Still, combo props carry higher variance, so confidence stays moderate.

prOVER 18.560%MEDIUM

He averages 13.8 points and 3.8 rebounds, which already puts him near the line before any usage boost. Home production and extra minutes make this a better combo look than PA.

timelineOVER 14.5 PTS