AI Model:

Desmond Bane—

ORL · SG

PPG

20.4

RPG

4.1

APG

4.2

L5 PPG

18.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.2

20.4

18.2

RPG-0.1

4.1

4.0

APG-1.0

4.2

3.2

SPG+0.1

1.1

1.2

BPG0.0

0.4

OVER 21.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

21.5

DAL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs DAL: 14 pts

MIN

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs MIN: 30 pts

MIL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs MIL: 18 pts

CLE

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs CLE: 35 pts

WAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs WAS: 22 pts

MIA

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIA: 21 pts

ATL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ATL: 18 pts

OKC

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs OKC: 16 pts

CHA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CHA: 24 pts

LAL

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs LAL: 12 pts

Over 21.5

Under 21.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 21.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

AST

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

BLK

UNDER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

55%

OVER 2

57%

P+A

UNDER 26.5FANDUEL

62%

P+R

UNDER 26.5FANDUEL

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

22.6

24.4

RPG

3.8

3.9

APG

4.0

3.9

vs IND (H2H)10 games

PPG

21.8

RPG

5.2

APG

5.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Derrick White	3	17	43%	-15.0%	medium
Mikal Bridges	4	16	59%	+8.0%	medium
Pelle Larsson	4	14	50%	-3.9%	medium
Aaron Nesmith	3	14	56%

Bane’s scoring ceiling is intact, but assist volume looks shakier

Desmond Bane is averaging 20.4 PPG, 4.1 RPG, and 4.2 APG on 34.3 MPG this season, with his last 10 rising to 21.0 PPG and 4.4 APG. The biggest boost in this spot is role-related: Anthony Black, Franz Wagner, and Jonathan Isaac are all out, which should preserve strong minutes and usage. That said, his last 5 scoring has dipped to 18.2 PPG and his assist workload is more volatile, so the safer angles are tied to his season baseline rather than a chase of the recent uptick. The matchup also comes with a defense profile that allows some offense, but the player-specific volume still points to a more measured projection than the market’s higher combo lines.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.2(↓ from 20.4)

RPG

4.0(→ from 4.1)

APG

3.2(↓ from 4.2)

3PM

1.8(↓ from 2.0)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders. Indiana’s defense metrics show a 120.44 defensive rating and a 100 pace, which suggests a workable scoring environment but not an automatic ceiling spot.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Desmond Bane▼	Points	21.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	17	✗
Desmond Bane▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	6	✗
Desmond Bane▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	7	✗
Desmond Bane▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	1	✗
Desmond Bane▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	0	✓
Desmond Bane▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Desmond Bane▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	30%	0	✗
Desmond Bane▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	30%	0	✗
Desmond Bane▼	P+A	26.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	24	✓
Desmond Bane▼	P+R	26.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	23	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R25.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x8/2040%▼

P+A25.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x11/2055%▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Desmond Bane

Points OVER 21.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest price/role combination because the market line sits close to his season mean of 20.4 and last 10 mean of 21.0. The teammate absences should help preserve usage and minutes, but the last 5 scoring dip to 18.2 keeps this below high confidence.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Aaron Nesmith	3	14	9	50%	56%
Jarace Walker	3	5	5	67%	83%
Andrew Nembhard	3	5	9	43%	50%
Ben Sheppard	3	4	3	100%	150%
Pascal Siakam	3	3	5	25%	25%

pointsOVER 21.568%MEDIUM

Season mean is 20.4 and last 10 is 21.0, while teammate absences should keep his usage elevated. The line is only 1.1 points above season mean, making the over playable despite the last 5 dip to 18.2.

reboundsUNDER 4.564%MEDIUM

He is at 4.1 RPG for the season and 4.3 over the last 10, both still below 4.5. The recent game mix and his 4.0 last 5 keep this slightly below the posted number.

assistsUNDER 4.566%MEDIUM

Season mean is 4.17 and last 5 has fallen to 3.2, which is below the market line. Even with a 4.4 last 10 and added ball-handling opportunities, the recent trend and variance make the under safer.

threesOVER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 2.04 made threes per game and 1.8 over the last 10, both above 1.5. The floor is supported by his season-long volume and a home split of 2.9 made threes per game.

stealsUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.1 steals, but the 1.5 line is well above baseline. Even with strong recent stocks, the steal prop is too volatile to trust on the over.

blocksUNDER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages just 0.4 blocks per game this season and 0.2 over the last 10. That keeps the under slightly preferred on a 0.5 line.

stocksOVER 1.555%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.51 and recent marks are 1.6 to 1.7, which is right on the threshold. This is playable but only at modest confidence because the category is high variance.

turnoversOVER 257%MEDIUM

He is at 2.2 turnovers per game over the last 5 and 1.8 over the last 10, so the recent profile is close to the line. Given the heavier creation load from teammate absences, the over is reasonable but not strong.

paUNDER 26.562%MEDIUM

His season baseline in points plus assists is 24.6, and his last 5 has dropped to 21.4 by the listed rolling numbers. The 26.5 line asks for a clear step above his normal output.

prUNDER 26.560%MEDIUM

Season points plus rebounds is 24.5, which sits below 26.5, and his last 5 scoring has cooled. This needs a stronger scoring game than his current form suggests.

timelineOVER 21.5 PTS