AI Model:

Aaron Nesmith▼

IND · SG

PPG

13.4

RPG

4.2

APG

1.9

L5 PPG

15.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.2

13.4

15.6

RPG-2.2

4.2

2.0

APG-1.1

1.9

0.8

SPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

BPG-0.3

0.5

0.2

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

11.5

WAS

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs WAS: 3 pts

LAC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs LAC: 2 pts

LAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs LAL: 7 pts

POR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs POR: 9 pts

SAC

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAC: 29 pts

NYK

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NYK: 12 pts

MIL

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs MIL: 32 pts

NYK

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs NYK: 14 pts

POR

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs POR: 15 pts

SAS

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs SAS: 5 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5FANDUEL

64%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

AST

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

70%

STL

UNDER 0.5FANDUEL

60%

BLK

UNDER 0.5FANDUEL

63%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

62%

UNDER 1.5

59%

P+R

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.2

11.9

RPG

3.2

3.3

APG

2.0

1.7

vs ORL (H2H)15 games

PPG

7.4

RPG

3.4

APG

1.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Derrick White	2	11	38%	-8.1%	low
Luka Dončić	2	10	43%	-8.1%	low
Jalen Brunson	2	10	44%	-3.9%	low
Amen Thompson	2	9	0%	-41.4%

Nesmith’s 3-point volume keeps him viable, but his overall scoring ceiling looks capped

Aaron Nesmith’s season line sits at 13.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG, and 1.9 APG in 29.3 MPG, while his last 10 have cooled to 12.8 PPG and 25.6 MPG. He has been more productive on the road in minutes-dependent bursts, but his recent game log is volatile and his current status is questionable with a right ankle issue. The matchup data is mixed: Orlando’s scoring suppression is negative, and his head-to-head output versus this opponent is only 7.4 PPG in 15 games, which leans conservative for points props.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.6(↑ from 13.4)

RPG

2.0(↓ from 4.2)

APG

0.8(↓ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

Orlando’s scoring suppression is -0.268, and the opponent profile also shows -1.172 three-point suppression. There is no specific defender matchup data, so the read comes from the team-level numbers and Nesmith’s 7.4 PPG in 15 games against this opponent.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Aaron Nesmith▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	19	✗
Aaron Nesmith▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	2	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	2	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	70%HIGH	2/2	30%	5	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✗
Aaron Nesmith▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	90%	1	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	Turnovers	1.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	—	90%	1	✓
Aaron Nesmith▼	P+R	15.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	21	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R17.5OVER0%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+A16UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

R+A4.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

Featured Pick

Aaron Nesmith

Threes OVER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because his season average is 2.24 made threes and his away average is 2.36, both comfortably above the 1.5 line. The value sheet also shows a 11.6% edge on the over, making it the strongest positive-EV play in the set.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Anthony Black	2	8	10	36%	41%
Desmond Bane	3	8	6	30%	30%
Paolo Banchero	3	7	7	33%	33%
Jevon Carter	1	4	0	0%	0%
Tristan da Silva	3	4	5	40%	50%

pointsUNDER 11.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 13.4, but his recent 10-game average is 12.8 and he has only 7.4 PPG in 15 games against Orlando. With a questionable ankle status and a volatile recent scoring profile, the under is the safer side.

reboundsUNDER 3.567%MEDIUM

Nesmith’s season rebound average is 4.17, but his last 10 are down to 2.3 RPG and his recent minutes are lower at 25.6 MPG. That recent decline outweighs the season baseline for this line.

assistsOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.93 APG and his away split is 2.08 APG, while the available value data shows a 11.7% edge on the over. Even with recent assists down, this is the clearest positive-priced angle.

threesOVER 1.570%HIGH

He averages 2.24 made threes per game on the season and 2.36 away, with a 1.5 line that is below his mean. The value data also shows a 11.6% edge on the over.

stealsUNDER 0.560%MEDIUM

He averages only 0.6 steals per game on the season and 0.3 in away games, so the distribution is weak for an over. His recent steal production has also cooled to 0.4 over the last five.

blocksUNDER 0.563%MEDIUM

His season block average is 0.5, but the recent trend is just 0.2 over the last five and 0.4 over the last 10. This is a low-volume block prop with limited upside.

stocksUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.1 and recent production has slipped to 0.7, which is below a 1.5 threshold. With variance in the stat mix, the under is the conservative call.

turnoversUNDER 1.559%MEDIUM

He averages 1.4 turnovers over the last 20 and 0.8 over the last 10, which does not point to frequent turnover volume. With lower recent usage, the under is favored.

prUNDER 15.560%MEDIUM

His season points + rebounds profile is 13.4 PPG and 4.2 RPG, but recent rebounding has fallen sharply and scoring is not stable enough for the over. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is preferable.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS