AI Model:

Tre Jones▼

CHI · SG

PPG

12.9

RPG

2.9

APG

5.4

L5 PPG

16.4

Last 10 GamesAST

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.5

12.9

16.4

RPG+0.3

2.9

3.2

APG-1.2

5.4

4.2

SPG+0.3

1.3

1.6

BPG0.0

0.2

OVER 4.5 AST

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

4.5

MIL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs MIL: 6 ast

OKC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs OKC: 2 ast

PHX

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs PHX: 5 ast

SAC

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAC: 5 ast

GSW

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs GSW: 5 ast

LAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs LAL: 6 ast

LAC

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs LAC: 2 ast

MEM

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs MEM: 5 ast

TOR

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs TOR: 5 ast

CLE

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CLE: 3 ast

Over 4.5

Under 4.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

AST

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

69%

PTS

UNDER 13.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

3PM

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

52%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

56%

PRA

OVER 21.5FANDUEL

51%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.7

19.9

RPG

2.5

3.3

APG

5.3

5.0

vs HOU (H2H)12 games

PPG

13.9

RPG

2.5

APG

4.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Brunson	4	17	47%	-13.1%	medium
Daniss Jenkins	3	15	60%	+4.8%	medium
Trae Young	3	12	54%	-12.3%	medium
Ryan Rollins	3	11	70%

Tre Jones’ assists look like the safest angle, with points carrying more volatility

Tre Jones has been producing above his season scoring baseline lately, with 16.4 PPG over his last 5 and 16.5 over his last 10 compared with 12.9 for the season. His assist profile is steadier than his scoring, as he sits at 5.4 APG on the year and 4.4 over the last 10, while his recent minutes have held near 29.4 MPG. This matchup comes with no specific defender matchup data, so the cleanest edge comes from role and market context rather than a named defensive stopper. With multiple injuries around the roster and a favorable assists price at 4.5, his playmaking prop stands out more than his points.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.4(↑ from 12.9)

APG

4.2(↓ from 5.4)

RPG

3.2(↑ from 2.9)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available, so the main matchup read comes from team context and the provided opponent defense metrics. Houston is listed with a 109.67 defensive rating and -1.283 scoring suppression, while the opponent absences include Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams, which can influence game flow and distribution.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Tre Jones▼	Assists	4.5	OVER	69%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	6	✓
Tre Jones▼	Points	13.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	15	✗
Tre Jones▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	5	✓
Tre Jones▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
Tre Jones▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✗
Tre Jones▼	PRA	21.5	OVER	51%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	26	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS17.5UNDER1%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

AST6.5UNDER27%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)3/2015%+34.3% edge▼

PRA30.5UNDER10%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)5/2025%+20.4% edge▼

P+R20.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)11/2055%▼

P+A21.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)12/2060%▼

3PA3UNDER42%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)6/2030%▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

STL1UNDER37%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%▼

REB3.5OVER9%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

FTM2UNDER19%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

FTA3UNDER3%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Tre Jones

Assists OVER 4.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the data because his season average is 5.4 APG, his home average is 5.3 APG, and his head-to-head mark is 4.83 APG across 12 games. The value table also shows positive edge at multiple books, including a 9.0% edge at BetMGM and 5.1% at DraftKings, which makes this the strongest supported prop.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Reed Sheppard	2	9	2	33%	33%
Josh Okogie	1	3	0	0%	0%
JD Davison	1	3	0	0%	0%
Aaron Holiday	1	2	0	0%	0%
Amen Thompson	2	2	0	0%	0%

assistsOVER 4.569%MEDIUM

He averages 5.37 assists on the season, 5.47 at home, and 4.833 in 12 games vs this opponent, while the market line is 4.5. The value data shows a 9.0% edge at BetMGM and 5.1%+ edge at DraftKings, supporting the OVER despite some recent dip to 4.2 over the last 5.

pointsUNDER 13.558%MEDIUM

His season scoring average is 12.9, below the 13.5 line, and his home scoring is only 11.7 PPG versus 19.9 away. The last 5 at 16.4 is hot, but the broader season and home split make this a more cautious UNDER lean.

reboundsOVER 2.555%MEDIUM

He averages 2.9 rebounds for the season and 3.2 over the last 5, with 2.73 at home and 3.14 away. The standard deviation is 2.03, so confidence stays moderate, but the 2.5 line is slightly low relative to his baseline.

threesOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 threes per game for the season and 0.9 over the last 20, with 1.0 over the last 10. Variance is high with a 0.97 season standard deviation, so this is playable but not a high-confidence spot.

stocksUNDER 1.556%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.44 and his last 20 is 1.4, both below a 1.5 threshold. The category is volatile with a 1.39 standard deviation, which makes the UNDER the more conservative side.

praOVER 21.551%MEDIUM

His season PRA estimate from the provided averages is 21.2, and he is at 23.9 over the last 5 by the provided rolling stats. Because combo props are higher variance, this stays a modest lean rather than a strong play.

timelineOVER 4.5 AST