AI Model:

Josh Giddey▼

CHI · PG

PPG

17.5

RPG

8.4

APG

9.1

L5 PPG

16.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.3

17.5

16.2

RPG-0.4

8.4

8.0

APG+2.9

9.1

12.0

SPG+0.8

1.0

1.8

BPG+0.2

0.4

0.6

UNDER 17.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

17.5

POR

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs POR: 15 pts

MIL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs MIL: 20 pts

OKC

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs OKC: 14 pts

SAC

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAC: 15 pts

GSW

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs GSW: 21 pts

LAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs LAL: 27 pts

LAC

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs LAC: 20 pts

MEM

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs MEM: 16 pts

TOR

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs TOR: 9 pts

CLE

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs CLE: 9 pts

Over 17.5

Under 17.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 17.5FANDUEL

62%

REB

OVER 7.5FANDUEL

58%

AST

OVER 9.5FANDUEL

56%

3PM

OVER 1.5BETMGM

68%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

67%

BLK

OVER 0.5FANDUEL

54%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

OVER 3.8

60%

PRA

OVER 35.5FANDUEL

55%

P+A

OVER 27.5FANDUEL

57%

OVER 0.5

52%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.5

18.6

RPG

6.3

9.6

APG

8.1

11.8

vs HOU (H2H)12 games

PPG

12.8

RPG

6.5

APG

5.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaylon Tyson	4	15	64%	+19.7%	medium
Dyson Daniels	2	14	29%	-16.0%	low
OG Anunoby	4	14	77%	+16.9%	medium
Andrew Nembhard	3	13	46%

Giddey’s assist ceiling is high, but the scoring and board lines look more balanced

Josh Giddey is averaging 17.5 PPG, 8.4 RPG, and 9.1 APG on the season, with his last 5 showing a bigger playmaking spike at 12.0 APG and 35.4 MPG. The matchup context is mixed: Houston’s defense has a 109.67 rating and a 100 pace, while the opponent also has scoring suppression of -1.283 and three suppression of -0.73. His home split is weaker than his away split, with just 12.5 PPG and 8.1 APG at home versus 18.6 PPG and 11.8 APG away, so the venue slightly tempers the ceiling tonight.

Stat Trends

PPG

16.2(↓ from 17.5)

RPG

8.0(→ from 8.4)

APG

12.0(↑ from 9.1)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so no specific defender matchup data. Houston’s team defense profile is respectable with a 109.67 rating and a 100 pace, which slightly limits the most aggressive overs.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Josh Giddey▼	Points	17.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	15	✓
Josh Giddey▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	7	✗
Josh Giddey▼	Assists	9.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	13	✓
Josh Giddey▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	3	✓
Josh Giddey▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	2	✗
Josh Giddey▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	40%	1	✓
Josh Giddey▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%	3	✓
Josh Giddey▼	Turnovers	3.8	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✗
Josh Giddey▼	PRA	35.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	35	✗
Josh Giddey▼	P+A	27.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	28	✓
Josh Giddey▼	Double-Double	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PRA34.5UNDER9%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+R22OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A24OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

PTS15UNDER17%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

REB7OVER19%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

3PA6UNDER35%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

R+A17.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x12/2060%▼

AST10UNDER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

FTM1.5UNDER18%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

STL1UNDER30%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER11%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

3PM2UNDER29%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Josh Giddey

Threes OVER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value play in the data: he averages 2.0 threes per game on the season, 3.0 over the last 5, and 2.3 away. The value props data shows a 5.8% edge at BetMGM with positive EV, making the over the strongest recommendation.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Amen Thompson	1	6	4	40%	40%
Tari Eason	1	3	4	33%	33%
Jabari Smith Jr.	1	2	0	0%	0%
Dorian Finney-Smith	1	1	0	0%	0%
Aaron Holiday	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 17.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 17.5, but his last 5 is 16.2 and the home split is only 12.5 PPG. The FanDuel line is exactly at the season mean, and his recent trend is down.

reboundsOVER 7.558%MEDIUM

He averages 8.4 rebounds on the season and 9.4 over the last 10, with 8.0 over the last 5. The 7.5 line sits below both the season and recent form, though the variance is not trivial.

assistsOVER 9.556%MEDIUM

Giddey’s season assist mean is 9.1 and his last 5 jumps to 12.0, plus he has 11.5 over the last 10. The line is slightly above his season mean, but the recent distribution supports the over more than the under.

threesOVER 1.568%MEDIUM

He averages 2.0 threes per game on the season and 3.0 over the last 5, with 3.2 threes per game away. Value data shows a 5.8% edge and +EV on the over at this line.

stealsUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 1.0, while FanDuel has the line at 1.5. Even with a stronger last 5 at 1.8, the higher line makes the under the safer side.

blocksOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.4 blocks on the season but 0.6 over the last 5 and 0.6 over the last 10. This is a low-volume market, so the over is playable but not high confidence.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.45 stocks on the season and 2.0 over the last 10, with 2.4 over the last 5. The recent form supports an over lean, but the season mean is close enough to keep confidence moderate.

turnoversOVER 3.860%MEDIUM

He has 3.6 turnovers over the last 5 and 3.8 over the last 10, with 3.8 also shown in the recent-window data. Given his high assist role, turnovers remain elevated.

praOVER 35.555%MEDIUM

His season PRA projects to 35.0 using 17.5 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 9.1 assists, and his recent usage has climbed. But combo props are higher-variance, so confidence stays modest.

paOVER 27.557%MEDIUM

He averages 26.6 points plus assists on the season, but his last 5 is 28.2 and his last 10 is 28.1. The line is close to his recent form, so the over has a slight lean.

double_doubleOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

He is consistently near double figures in points, rebounds, and assists, and his recent games show multiple double-double paths. This is viable, but the stat requires category balance and remains volatile.

timelineUNDER 17.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Giddey’s assist ceiling is high, but the scoring and board lines look more balanced

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 17.5 PTS