AI Model:

Jalen Smith▲

CHI · C

PPG

10.2

RPG

6.9

APG

1.3

L5 PPG

10.6

Last 10 GamesREB

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.4

10.2

10.6

RPG-1.3

6.9

5.6

APG-0.5

1.3

0.8

SPG-0.3

0.5

0.2

BPG-0.4

0.8

0.4

OVER 6.5 REB

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

6.5

MIL

2026-02-03

2026-02-03 vs MIL: 5 reb

TOR

2026-02-05

2026-02-05 vs TOR: 9 reb

TOR

2026-02-19

2026-02-19 vs TOR: 10 reb

DET

2026-02-21

2026-02-21 vs DET: 7 reb

NYK

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs NYK: 5 reb

SAC

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAC: 3 reb

GSW

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs GSW: 12 reb

LAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs LAL: 4 reb

MEM

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs MEM: 5 reb

TOR

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs TOR: 4 reb

Over 6.5

Under 6.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

REB

OVER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

PTS

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

AST

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

STL

UNDER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

BLK

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

P+R

UNDER 19.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.5

12.5

RPG

7.5

8.2

APG

0.9

1.6

vs HOU (H2H)8 games

PPG

9.1

RPG

8.4

APG

1.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Karl-Anthony Towns	3	11	33%	-14.5%	medium
Nic Claxton	2	10	75%	+27.2%	low
Jabari Smith Jr.	2	9	63%	+2.2%	low
Danny Wolf	2	8	50%

Jalen Smith’s rebound market looks strongest in a stable starting role

Jalen Smith is trending up overall, with season averages of 10.2 PPG, 6.9 RPG, and 1.3 APG, and his last-20 line has climbed to 11.9 points and 7.8 rebounds in 25.2 MPG. The main caution is efficiency and role volatility: his last-5 points are only 10.6 while rebounds sit at 5.6, and he is listed questionable with a right calf strain. Houston’s profile is modest on paper, and the opponent is missing Steven Adams, which helps the rebound outlook, but Smith’s own variance keeps combo props risky.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.6(↑ from 10.2)

RPG

5.6(↓ from 6.9)

APG

0.8(↓ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so no specific defender matchup data. The opponent profile is neutral-to-slightly supportive for rebounds, and Steven Adams being out helps Smith’s glass work.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jalen Smith▼	Rebounds	6.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	6	✗
Jalen Smith▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	15	✗
Jalen Smith▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	70%	2	✗
Jalen Smith▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	3	✓
Jalen Smith▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✓
Jalen Smith▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	40%	2	✓
Jalen Smith▼	P+R	19.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	21	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS13UNDER16%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)6/1932%▼

FTM2UNDER43%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x5/1926%▼

PRA22UNDER12%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)9/1947%▼

3PA5UNDER42%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x3/1916%▼

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x8/1942%▼

P+R20OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)10/1953%▼

P+A13.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)10/1953%▼

REB7OVER1%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x9/1947%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

AST1OVER2%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)7/1937%▼

3PM2UNDER32%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)6/1932%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x7/1937%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Smith

Rebounds OVER 6.5MEDIUM

This is the clearest value side because the season mean is 6.88 RPG and the value table shows a 6.1% edge on the OVER at 6.5. The matchup gets a boost from Steven Adams being out, which improves the rebounding environment without requiring a big scoring night.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jabari Smith Jr.	2	9	5	50%	63%
Alperen Sengun	2	6	17	89%	89%
Steven Adams	1	4	2	25%	25%
Amen Thompson	2	2	6	33%	33%
Kevin Durant	2	2	0	0%	0%

reboundsOVER 6.566%MEDIUM

His season mean is 6.88 rebounds and the value data shows a 6.1% edge on the OVER at 6.5. The opponent is also missing Steven Adams, who averaged 8.6 RPG, which supports Smith’s board projection.

pointsUNDER 12.560%MEDIUM

Smith’s season mean is 10.2 points and his last-20 is 11.9, still below 12.5. With a questionable tag for a calf strain and only modest scoring consistency, the UNDER is the cleaner side.

assistsUNDER 1.572%HIGH

He averages just 1.3 APG on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, with only 1.1 over the last 10. The 1.5 line is above his typical output, and his assist profile has limited upside.

threesOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.52 made threes per game on the season and 1.6 over the last 5, with a recent-minute bump to 25.6 MPG. The line is right around his baseline, so this is playable but not high-confidence.

stealsUNDER 0.561%MEDIUM

His season steals average is only 0.5, and the last-5 mark is 0.2. That makes a 0.5 line tough to clear consistently.

blocksOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 blocks per game on the season and 0.7 over the last 20. Even with variance, the 0.5 line sits below his mean production.

prUNDER 19.563%MEDIUM

His season point-rebound mean sums to 17.08 using 10.2 PPG and 6.88 RPG, well below 19.5. Combo props carry extra variance, and his recent numbers do not justify the higher line.

timelineOVER 6.5 REB