AI Model:

Amen Thompson—

HOU · PG

PPG

18.0

RPG

7.9

APG

5.2

L5 PPG

21.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.2

18.0

21.2

RPG+4.1

7.9

12.0

APG-0.2

5.2

5.0

SPG-0.6

1.4

0.8

BPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

OVER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

18.5

GSW

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs GSW: 18 pts

POR

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs POR: 26 pts

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 23 pts

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 23 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 16 pts

NOP

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NOP: 23 pts

LAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAL: 19 pts

LAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAL: 26 pts

ATL

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs ATL: 14 pts

MIA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs MIA: 24 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 18.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

OVER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

AST

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

3PM

UNDER 0.5

72%

STL

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

BLK

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2

61%

OVER 2

60%

PRA

OVER 31.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

P+A

OVER 23.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.5

15.9

RPG

8.3

8.1

APG

4.8

4.3

vs CHI (H2H)4 games

PPG

15.0

RPG

6.5

APG

3.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jamal Murray	4	21	50%	-12.6%	medium
De'Aaron Fox	3	19	60%	-2.6%	medium
Austin Reaves	3	15	28%	-30.4%	medium
Jalen Brunson	2	15	11%

Amen Thompson’s all-around role stays strong, with rebounds and scoring in play

Amen Thompson is coming in with a season line of 18.0 PPG, 7.9 RPG, and 5.2 APG while playing 37.1 MPG, and his last 5 have been even stronger at 21.2 PPG and 12.0 RPG. The usage boost from Fred VanVleet being out keeps his minutes and responsibility elevated, though his assists are more modest than his scoring/rebounding spike suggests. His matchup data is limited, but Chicago’s opponent profile shows a 120.29 defensive rating and 100 pace, which supports a workable possession environment. Overall, the safest angle is to lean into his steady minutes and rebounding, while being more cautious on assists and combo props.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.2(↑ from 18.0)

RPG

12.0(↑ from 7.9)

APG

5.0(→ from 5.2)

Stocks

1.2(↓ from 2.0)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. The opponent context shows a 120.29 defensive rating and 100 pace, while the key defender list does not provide enough usable matchup detail to identify a specific stopper.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Amen Thompson▼	Points	18.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	23	✓
Amen Thompson▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	3	✗
Amen Thompson▼	Assists	5.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✓
Amen Thompson▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	60%	0	✓
Amen Thompson▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	2	✗
Amen Thompson▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	40%	2	✓
Amen Thompson▼	STL+BLK	2	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	80%	4	✗
Amen Thompson▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	40%	2	✗
Amen Thompson▼	PRA	31.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	27	✗
Amen Thompson▼	P+A	23.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	24	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS16.5UNDER8%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x16/2080%▼

REB7.5OVER12%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)12/2060%▼

STL1.5UNDER28%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

PRA30.5UNDER15%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)12/2060%▼

P+R28UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

AST4.5UNDER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)11/2055%▼

R+A13.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A25UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 8x7/2035%▼

FTM4UNDER32%gbtAvoid (7/20)7/2035%▼

FTA4UNDER14%gbtAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Amen Thompson

Rebounds OVER 7.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because the season average is 7.94, the last 10 is 9.2, and the last 5 is 12.0. His minutes remain high at 37.1 on the season and 39.0 over the last 5, and the rebound trend is stronger than his assists or stocks profile.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Josh Giddey	1	6	0	0%	0%
Tre Jones	2	5	16	71%	79%
Ayo Dosunmu	1	3	0	0%	0%
Collin Sexton	1	3	3	50%	50%
Matas Buzelis	2	3	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 18.568%MEDIUM

His season mean is 17.97, but the recent 10-game scoring is 21.2 and he has 39.0 MPG over the last 5. With Fred VanVleet out, the offensive role remains elevated, and the 18.5 line is supported by his recent form.

reboundsOVER 7.567%MEDIUM

He is averaging 7.94 rebounds on the season and 9.2 over the last 10, with a huge 12.0 RPG in the last 5. That recent surge makes 7.5 a playable over despite the variance.

assistsUNDER 5.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is 5.19 and last 10 is 5.3, but the book line is 5.5 and the data shows no strong edge to the over. Given the over-bias warning and only modest assist growth, the under is the cleaner lean.

threesUNDER 0.572%HIGH

He averages only 0.36 made threes per game on the season and 0.5 over the last 10, with just 0.5 recent attempts per game. That low volume makes the under the more reliable side.

stealsUNDER 1.566%MEDIUM

He averages 1.4 steals on the season but just 0.8 over the last 5, and the 1.5 line is above his most recent baseline. The recent dip makes the under preferable.

blocksOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 blocks per game on the season and 0.4 over the last 5, so the line is close to his baseline. This is a lower-confidence angle, but the season mean supports a slight over lean.

stocksUNDER 261%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.03, but the last 10 is 1.6 and the last 5 is 1.2. With the recent decline and typical variance, the under is the safer call.

turnoversOVER 260%MEDIUM

He is at 2.5 turnovers over the last 20 and 2.4 over the last 5, which is above the projected 2.0 baseline. His expanded role makes turnovers more likely to stay elevated.

praOVER 31.556%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 31.09, and the last 5 combination of 21.2 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists points to a workable ceiling. Still, combo props are volatile, so this stays only medium confidence.

paOVER 23.557%MEDIUM

He combines 18.0 PPG with 5.2 APG on the season, giving a 23.2 season P+A baseline, while the line sits at 23.5. The recent scoring spike pushes it close enough to justify a slight over lean.

timelineOVER 18.5 PTS