AI Model:

Alperen Sengun▲

HOU · C

PPG

20.3

RPG

9.0

APG

6.1

L5 PPG

17.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.3

20.3

17.0

RPG-1.2

9.0

7.8

APG-0.1

6.1

6.0

SPG-0.6

1.2

0.6

BPG-0.4

1.0

0.6

UNDER 20.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

20.5

MIA

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs MIA: 13 pts

WAS

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs WAS: 32 pts

GSW

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs GSW: 17 pts

POR

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs POR: 28 pts

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 16 pts

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 14 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 10 pts

LAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAL: 27 pts

ATL

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs ATL: 15 pts

MIA

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs MIA: 19 pts

Over 20.5

Under 20.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 20.5FANDUEL

66%

REB

UNDER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

AST

OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

OVER 3.5

64%

PRA

UNDER 34.5FANDUEL

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.3

16.6

RPG

8.8

6.6

APG

6.2

5.0

vs CHI (H2H)8 games

PPG

18.5

RPG

8.3

APG

5.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Nikola Jokić	4	24	58%	-0.0%	medium
Maxime Raynaud	4	20	50%	-5.0%	medium
Rudy Gobert	2	14	57%	+4.7%	low
Luke Kornet	3	13	100%

Sengun’s minutes are steady, but the scoring ceiling looks capped

Alperen Sengun is still producing across the board, but his recent form has cooled versus his season baseline, with 17.0 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 6.0 APG over the last 5 compared to 20.3/9.0/6.1 for the season. His usage remains strong at 33.4 MPG season-long, yet the last 20 and recent logs show more volatility, including a 31.9 MPG recent stretch and turnover spikes. The matchup is not overly intimidating on paper, but the market has already adjusted with several low-20s point lines and 8.5-rebound numbers. With Houston missing Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams, Sengun’s role stays important, but the safer angle is to avoid paying for a ceiling that hasn’t been consistent lately.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.0(↓ from 20.3)

RPG

7.8(↓ from 9.0)

APG

6.0(→ from 6.1)

Stocks

1.2(↓ from 2.2)

Key Matchup

Chicago’s opponent defense data shows a 120.29 defensive rating, 100 pace, and scoring_suppression of 1.124, which points to a generally manageable environment rather than a smash spot. The key defender list includes Jalen Smith and Matas Buzelis, but their minutes are very small at 5.0 and 3.2, so the data does not indicate a single heavy matchup to avoid.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Alperen Sengun▼	Points	20.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	33	✗
Alperen Sengun▼	Rebounds	8.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	13	✗
Alperen Sengun▼	Assists	5.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	10	✓
Alperen Sengun▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	2	✓
Alperen Sengun▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	40%	4	✓
Alperen Sengun▼	Turnovers	3.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✗
Alperen Sengun▼	PRA	34.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	56	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA33.5UNDER8%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)11/2055%▼

P+R29.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

PTS18.5UNDER12%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x11/2055%▼

REB8.5UNDER14%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%+7.2% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

BLK0.5UNDER23%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A27UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

AST5.5UNDER33%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)9/2045%+5.7% edge▼

R+A14UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Alperen Sengun

Assists OVER 5.5MEDIUM

This is the best blend of role and price: Sengun is at 6.1 APG for the season and 6.31 at home, while the market is offering 5.5 on multiple books. Even with recent assist volatility, the line still sits below his core production, making it a more stable angle than his points or PRA.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Smith	2	5	8	38%	38%
Nick Richards	1	5	7	40%	50%
Isaac Okoro	1	4	3	14%	14%
Nikola Vučević	1	4	6	50%	50%
Leonard Miller	1	3	6	60%	60%

pointsUNDER 20.566%MEDIUM

His season mean is 20.3, but the last 5 are down to 17.0 and the last 20 are 17.6. The recent scoring trend is below market lines like 20.5, and his b2b mean of 18.9 plus current volatility makes the under the cleaner side.

reboundsUNDER 8.562%MEDIUM

Season rebounding is 9.0, but the last 5 are only 7.8 and last 10 are 7.7. Even with a stronger home split at 9.76 RPG, the recent dip makes 8.5 a slight fade.

assistsOVER 5.558%MEDIUM

He averages 6.1 APG on the season and 6.31 at home, with 6.0 over the last 5. The line is below his season and home production, though the variance keeps confidence moderate.

blocksOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.0 blocks per game for the season and 1.1 over the last 20, which supports clearing 0.5. The recent 0.6 block rate is lower, but the baseline is still comfortably above the line.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

Season stocks are 2.2 and the last 20 are 2.0, so 1.5 is a reachable threshold. The last 5 have dipped to 1.2, but his overall defensive play still supports the over more than the under.

turnoversOVER 3.564%MEDIUM

He is averaging 3.5 turnovers over the last 20 and 3.2 at home, with several recent games at 5 to 8 turnovers. The ball-handling load is high enough that 3.5 is a reasonable over target.

praUNDER 34.563%MEDIUM

His season PRA profile is strong, but the last 5 production has been lower across points and rebounds, and combo props carry extra variance. With the recent scoring and rebounding dip, the under is safer than paying for 34.5.

timelineUNDER 20.5 PTS