AI Model:

Ryan Nembhard▲

DAL · PG

PPG

6.4

RPG

2.0

APG

5.0

L5 PPG

8.4

Last 10 GamesAST

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.0

6.4

8.4

RPG+1.6

2.0

3.6

APG+2.6

5.0

7.6

SPG+0.1

0.3

0.4

BPG0.0

0.0

OVER 5.5 AST

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

5.5

ORL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs ORL: 4 ast

BOS

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs BOS: 0 ast

TOR

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs TOR: 2 ast

ATL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs ATL: 3 ast

MEM

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MEM: 5 ast

CLE

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs CLE: 9 ast

CLE

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs CLE: 3 ast

NOP

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs NOP: 5 ast

ATL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs ATL: 12 ast

LAC

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs LAC: 9 ast

Over 5.5

Under 5.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

AST

OVER 5.5BETONLINEAG

71%

PTS

UNDER 11.5STAKE

74%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

68%

3PM

OVER 0.5BETONLINEAG

60%

PRA

UNDER 16.5BETMGM

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

5.9

3.6

RPG

1.9

2.1

APG

5.7

3.4

vs GSW (H2H)1 games

PPG

4.0

RPG

1.0

APG

2.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Walter Clayton Jr.	4	11	50%	-3.5%	medium
Tim Hardaway Jr.	4	9	20%	-21.0%	medium
Isaiah Collier	4	9	50%	-1.0%	medium
Spencer Jones	4	8	83%

Nembhard’s assist role is stable, but scoring remains capped

Ryan Nembhard is trending up in recent usage, with his last 5 games at 8.4 PPG, 7.6 APG, and 26.8 MPG versus season marks of 6.4 PPG, 5.0 APG, and 18.9 MPG. The biggest boost comes from teammate absences, especially Kyrie Irving being out and Brandon Williams doubtful, which supports Nembhard’s ball-handling and assist chances. Even so, his scoring profile is still modest, and the opponent data shows no clear edge from the matchup beyond the current availability situation. With his season production still below the inflated last-5 sample, assists are the cleaner angle than points or combo overs.

Stat Trends

PPG

8.4(↑ from 6.4)

APG

7.6(↑ from 5.0)

MPG

26.8(↑ from 18.9)

Key Matchup

Opponent data gives no specific defender matchup data, so the read is driven more by role and team availability than a named on-ball matchup. The opponent is allowing a 114.53 defensive rating with a 100 pace, but their scoring suppression and three suppression numbers do not create a strong enough signal to override Nembhard’s role-based projection.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Ryan Nembhard▼	Assists	5.5	OVER	71%HIGH	2/2	30%	5	✗
Ryan Nembhard▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	1/2	90%	4	✓
Ryan Nembhard▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1	✓
Ryan Nembhard▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Ryan Nembhard▼	PRA	16.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	10	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A11UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)8/1747%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

R+A8UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)7/1741%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+R8.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 3x9/1753%Scorecard changed +3.0▼

Featured Pick

Ryan Nembhard

Assists OVER 5.5MEDIUM

This is the clearest role-based angle because his assist output is rising from a 5.0 season average to 7.6 over the last 5, and the team is missing Kyrie Irving while Brandon Williams is doubtful. The market also shows a playable 10.3% edge on the 5.5 assists under at betonlineag, but from a player-prop standpoint his expanded creation workload makes 6+ assists the more likely outcome.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Moses Moody	3	4	2	0%	0%
Buddy Hield	1	3	5	67%	83%
Will Richard	2	2	0	0%	0%
Pat Spencer	1	2	0	0%	0%
Brandin Podziemski	3	1	0	0%	0%

assistsOVER 5.571%HIGH

He is averaging 5.0 assists on the season and 7.6 over his last 5, with minutes up to 26.8 in that stretch. Teammate absences should keep him in a primary creation role, giving the over a workable path despite the over-bias caution.

pointsUNDER 11.574%HIGH

His season scoring is only 6.4 PPG and his last 10 is 5.5 PPG, well below the 11.5 line. The recent 8.4 PPG bump is not enough to override the longer sample, especially with his scoring still reliant on elevated minutes and efficiency.

reboundsUNDER 3.568%MEDIUM

Nembhard averages 2.0 rebounds on the season and 2.3 over his last 5, so 3.5 is above his normal range. The recent rise in minutes helps, but rebound volume is still not high enough to lean over confidently.

threesOVER 0.560%MEDIUM

He averages 0.86 made threes per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, which clears a 0.5 line. The confidence is only moderate because his recent volume is modest at 1.4 3PA per game over the last 5.

praUNDER 16.563%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 13.4 using the provided season averages, while the last-5 production is better but still not dominant enough to make 16.5 a strong over. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is the safer side.

timelineOVER 5.5 AST